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Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Resource Development Parameters Jeff King Northwest Power and Conservation Council Generating Resources.

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Presentation on theme: "Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Resource Development Parameters Jeff King Northwest Power and Conservation Council Generating Resources."— Presentation transcript:

1 Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Resource Development Parameters Jeff King Northwest Power and Conservation Council Generating Resources Advisory Committee Portland, OR September 25, 2008

2 August 21, 2008 2 Conceptual phases of development Decision points and typical activities Project Development (a.k.a. Optioning) Project conceptualization through financing Optional Construction Authorization to purchase to completion of major foundations Committed Construction Receipt of major equipment through commercial operation Site selection Resource assessment Land & ROW acquisition Environmental studies Geotechnical studies Preliminary engineering Permits Interconnection agreement Power sales agreement Financing Final engineering Major equipment procurement Infrastructure Site clearing and grading Underground piping & electrical Foundations Erect steel Install major equipment Ancillary structures & equipment Complete piping, electrical, control and instrumentation Acceptance testing

3 August 21, 2008 3 Resource development parameters Time to complete phase (months to nearest quarter) Cash expended to complete phase ($/kW or % of overnight capital) Cost to suspend at completion of phase ($/kW) Cost to hold at completion of phase ($/kW/yr) Maximum hold time from end of phase (months to nearest quarter) Cost of project termination following suspension ($/kW) Cost of immediate project termination ($/kW)

4 August 21, 2008 4 Resources characterized at this level of detail Natural gas combined-cycle plants Local wind (available transmission) Remote wind (w/new transmission) Utility-scale solar photovoltaics (res & comm incl. w/EE) Concentrating solar thermal (w/new transmission) Nuclear Steam coal w/CO2 separation & sequestration Coal gasification w/CO2 separation & sequestration Alberta oil sands polygeneration (w/new transmission) The Portfolio Risk model is capable of testing five generating resource types plus demand response. We may represent wind as a supply curve (similar to conservation), and separately test the remaining resources to narrow the selection of individually modelled generating resources to five.

5 August 21, 2008 5 Gas combined-cycle - Phase definitions, elapsed schedule and cash flows Project Development 24 mos/4% of TPC Optional Construction 15 mos/24% of TPC Committed Construction 12 (21) mos/72% TPC Site selection Land & ROW acquisition Environmental studies Geotechnical studies Preliminary engineering Permits Interconnection & transmission agreements Financing EPC contract Final engineering Major equipment procurement (GTs, HRSGs, ST, cooling tower) Mobilization Infrastructure (water, gas, switchyard & interconnection) Site clearing, grading & other civil Underground piping & electrical Foundations Install major equipment (GTs, HRSGs, ST, cooling tower) Ancillary structures, tanks & misc. equipment Complete piping, electrical, control and instrumentation System testing & energization Insulation & painting Checkout & startup Acceptance testing

6 August 21, 2008 6 Wind power project (Local) a - Phase definitions, elapsed schedule and cash flows Project Development 18 mos/2% of TPC Optional Construction 9 (18)b mos/12% of TPC Committed Construction 6 mos/86% TPC Site selection Land & ROW acquisition Environmental studies Geotechnical studies Preliminary engineering Permits Interconnection & transmission agreements Power sales/equity acquisition agreement Financing EPC contract WTG order Final engineering & micrositing Mobilization Switchyard & interconnection) Survey and site civil works Underground electrical WTG Foundations Ship & install WTGs Install ancillary structures & equipment Complete electrical, control and instrumentation System testing & energization Checkout & startup Acceptance testing a.No main grid transmission reinforcements or extensions required. b.Proposed revisions in red.

7 August 21, 2008 7 Issues 1.Are definitions of phases and decision points realistic? 2.Is it realistic to plan for the possible suspension of a project once under construction? 3.Are elapsed times reasonable given continued economic viability and need for project throughout development and construction? 4.How, or should currently prevailing seller's market conditions be represented (e.g. effect of WTG shortage on the Phase II schedule)? 5.Are cash payouts representative? 6.How should the Project Development phase be defined from the perspective of the regional ratepayers for resources, such as wind, characterized by substantial speculative project development? 7.How should ancillary service augmentation, main grid transmission construction, CO2 squestration facility lead time and other needs external to a project be represented?


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