2. 1 / 20 Managing Volcanic Unrest: the Mobile Volcano Fast Response System Matthias Hort, Klemen Zakšek Institute of Geophysics University of Hamburg

3. 2 / 20 Motivation The majority of the active and dangerous volcanoes are located around the pacific ring of fire. Half of them are located in third world countries. We therefore develop a mobile VFRS (volcano fast response system) to support those countries in case of a volcanic crisis. USGS, 1991

4. 3 / 20 IFM-GEOMAR Uni. Hamburg Uni. Potsdam GFZ BGR Hanover TU Darmstadt LMU Munich TU Munich DLR Oberpfaffenhofen Institutions contributing to the VFRS Jena-Optronik GmbH

5. 4 / 20 Can be installed fast due to intelligent, cable-free communication between the different stations and a data center. A larger number of different stations can be deployed quickly. All data are collected in a central database including data from an existing network. Open system that can deal with various types of data including novel monitoring techniques. Data are visualized and partially analyzed in real time. Objective and reliable data evaluation are carried out including recommendations for crisis management. Requirements for the VFRS

6. 5 / 20 Exupery VFRS project strategy quantitive physical models terrestrial observations incl. WLAN communication satellite based observations database, visualization, alert levels, early warnings overall project coordination

7. 6 / 20 Satellite based observations in Exupéry Volcanic SO 2 plumes Ground deformation Thermal anomalies

8. 7 / 20 Detection of volcanic sulfur dioxide from the GOME-2 instrument using DOAS (Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy) GOME-2 observation of the SO 2 plume a day after the Eruption of Etna in Italy (11.05.2008). Monitoring volcanic SO 2 plumes http://wdc.dlr.de/data_products/SERVICES/GOME2NRT/so2.php DLR

9. 8 / 20 Backward trajectories starting on 11.05.2008. Subset related to Etna and GOME- 2 SO 2 data. Estimated injection height of the Etna eruption. Monitoring volcanic SO 2 plumes – backward trajectories DLR

10. 9 / 20 Goals InSAR ground deformation monitoring – goals Develop new SAR interferometry methods optimized for volcanoes Investigate potential of different satellites (TerraSAR-X, ENVISAT/ASAR, ALOS/PALSAR) with different frequency bands and spatial resolution Fusion of multi-geometry / multi-satellite observations Different view geometries for 3D motion vector derivation and for shadowing/layover Increased observation frequency to capture sudden events DLR, TU Munich

11. 10 / 20 InSAR ground deformation monitoring – first results Example for Stromboli (from February till July 2008) Persistent scatterer interferometry techniques with 10 acquisitions allows detection of the potential motion areas with TerraSAR-X. Maximum estimated displacement equals +-30mm/year DLR, TU Munich

12. 11 / 20 New material www.mvo.ms Montserrat change detection (radar amplitude) DLR, TU Munich

13. 12 / 20 Characterise clusters and not single pixels. The most reliable parameter is radiant flux. AVHRR 10 images per day MODIS 4 images per day Kalman filter fuse data to minimise the noise and improve temporal resolution Monitoring thermal anomalies – strategy Uni. Hamburg

14. 13 / 20 Radiant flux [MW] Time series for Etna eruption (October, November 2003) Monitoring thermal anomalies – first results Uni. Hamburg

15. 14 / 20 Other parts of Exupéry Terrestrial observations incl. WLAN communication Database, visualization, alert levels, early warnings Quantitive physical models Prototype installation

16. 15 / 20 Gas flux monitoring using Mini-DOAS Ground deformation monitoring using a combination of terrestrial SAR and GPS Terrestrial observations Aside from classic seismic observation systems, we attempt to incorporate two novel terrestrial observational techniques: TU DarmstadtIFM GEOMAR

17. 16 / 20 Wlan communication FUSE AND BATTERY BREAKER SOLAR CHARGE CONTROLLER 15 V POWER SUPPLY / PoE Uni. Hamburg

18. 17 / 20 Data analysis & quantitative physical models GFZ, Uni. Potsdam, Uni. Hamburg

19. 18 / 20 Database, visualization, alert levels, early warnings Terrestrial observations Sattelite observations GeoTIFF MiniSEED ASCII Other formats Quantitive physical model GIS LMU Munich, BGR Hanover, Jena-Optronik Automatic alert level estimation using Bayesian Belief Networks

20. 19 / 20 VFRS prototype installation

21. 20 / 20 Matthias Hort matthias.hort@zmaw.de Tel: +49 40 42838 3969 Klemen Zakšek klemen.zaksek@zmaw.de Tel: +49 40 42838 4921 Institute of Geophysics University of Hamburg Bundesstrasse 55 D-20146 Hamburg Germany Fax: +49 40 42838 5441 http://geophysics.zmaw.de www.exupery-vfrs.de