1. Oregon Forestry Where in the World are we Going? Presented to the Oregon Board of Forestry July 19, 2002 Tillamook, OR by Hal Salwasser Dean, College of Forestry Oregon State University

2. Forest Sustainability First Lose the forest, lose all the associated values

3. Water Forests are headwaters of the nation: 1/3 of land area; 2/3 of runoff; groundwater recharge; best water from any land use (SOER, USFS)

4. Fish, Wildlife, Biodiversity

5. Wood -- our “greenest” resource Wood products use less energy and water EnergyWater Steel and wood compared in construction of a 10’ x 100’ wall

6. Wood in our lives

7. Wood in global energy 70% of cooking, heating, industrial energy in developing countries

8. Non-timber forest products  Seeds, Berries, Fruits  Medicinals/herbals  Fungi  Florals  Fish and wildlife  Arts/crafts woods

9. Climate Forests store ~ 45% of the carbon in terrestrial ecosystems IPCC 2000

10. Livelihoods, Recreation, Heritage

11. One condition of forests for many purposes?  Ecosystem services  Products  Cultural links  Uses  Risk reduction Or, many conditions depending on purpose?

12. Forests cover large areas of the world’s land WorldUSCAORWAME

13. But not as much as they used to cover World US OR

14.  Agricultural/urban conversions  Water diversions, dams  Forest management  Livestock grazing  Recreation  Climate change People transform forests (and have for >10,000 years)

15. Annual Forest Trends 1990-2000 Tropics Non-tropics Global FAO 2001: country surveys + pan-tropical remote sensing

16. World population growth is the driver

17. Less forest; more people; more demands  World forest decline: - 20 to 30% since 1600 bp - 20 to 30% since 1600 bp - 2.4% since 1990 - 2.4% since 1990  Wood use up 40% since 1960: 1.5 bcm/yr  Wood use to rise < 66% by 2050: 2 - 2.5 bcm  Need for all forest benefits growing as well Water Water Biodiversity conservation Biodiversity conservation Carbon stores Carbon stores Recreation, subsistence, cultural uses Recreation, subsistence, cultural uses

18.  ~ 25-30% of global industrial wood use crosses international boundary; affects local prices  US imports 30-35% of lumber used  Forest industries integrating globally  Carbon, wood, biodiversity are global issues  US choices impact world’s forests: Import wood Import wood Export jobs Export jobs Import unemployment Import unemployment Export environmental effects Export environmental effects Import invasive species Import invasive species Store carbon Store carbon Globalization of forest issues

19. To sustain or restore forest health, productivity, and diversity … We must manage growth And we must manage forests to sustain multiple values, meet the needs of people for forest resources and forest services

20. U.S. in a Global Context Source: USDA Forest Service 2002

21. U.S. Forest Ownership

22. Forests are diverse, will be managed for many different purposes

23.  Sustainable forest management sustains forests first, then varies by forest type, goals/roles, ownership, location  It treats each forest differently; approach, vital signs depend on goals, capabilities: A.Production Value (PVF) B.Multiple Value (MVF) C.Conservation Value (CVF) D.Residential Value (RVF) Sustainable Forestry is Broad

24.  Goal: Most efficient wood/fiber production  Challenges: Increase wood yield: 2X to 5X over natural Increase wood yield: 2X to 5X over natural Reduce environmental impact, footprint Reduce environmental impact, footprint Improve product quality Improve product quality Produce high return on investment Produce high return on investment Maintain social license to operate Maintain social license to operate Much of world’s wood will come from this forest use A. Production Value Forest

25.  Goal: Meet various landowner objectives  Challenges: Optimize joint production Optimize joint production Sustain desired diversity of environmental, economic, community conditions and results, i.e., risk, forest health, vitality, productivity Sustain desired diversity of environmental, economic, community conditions and results, i.e., risk, forest health, vitality, productivity Produce multiple benefits at reasonable costs Produce multiple benefits at reasonable costs B. Multi-Value Forest Most of the world’s accessible forest will be in integrated management

26. C. Conservation Value Forest Parks, reserves, wilderness, special areas for natural, cultural values  Goal: Perpetuate native ecosystems, species, nature’s processes, cultural heritage  Challenges: Manage people to reduce impacts Manage people to reduce impacts Manage forests to restore “naturalness” Manage forests to restore “naturalness” Manage ecosystems to ameliorate invasive species, pollution, vulnerabilities Manage ecosystems to ameliorate invasive species, pollution, vulnerabilities Align management actions, costs and benefits for sustainability Align management actions, costs and benefits for sustainability

27.  Goals: Connect people with forest resources Connect people with forest resources Pleasant neighborhoods Pleasant neighborhoods Resource conservation Resource conservation Minimize sprawl Minimize sprawl Safety to life and property, risk Safety to life and property, risk Wildlife habitats Wildlife habitats D. Residential Value Forest

28. Global Forests 2000 2050 2000: 2000:  Industrial wood use = ~ 1.5 bcm  U.S. produces ~ 25%; uses ~33%  ~ 2 cm/ha/yr ave. yield from natural forests  ~ 3.9 bil ha: ~ 95% not planted; ~ 5% planted  ~ 10% “protected” in nature reserves Victor and Ausubel 2000; FAO 2001; WWF 2001

29. Global Forests 2000 2050 2050:  Industrial wood use = 2 – 2.5 bcm; + 33 to 66%  ~ 5 - 50 cm/ha/yr yield in planted forests  Production Value Forests < 10% of total; yields ~ 50 – 70% of industrial wood demand  Multi-Value Forests < 40%; yields rest of industrial wood demand, other uses/values  Conservation Value Forests for ~ 50% of world’s forests possible due to above strategies Victor and Ausubel 2000; FAO 2001; WWF 2001

30. Forest Plantations 2000 Source: FAO 2001

31. Plantations as % of Total Forest Source: FAO 2001

32. Natural Forests 2000 Source: FAO 2001

33. % of Global Reserved Forests Source: FAO 2001: IUCN Classes I-VI

34. % of Region’s Forests Reserved Source: FAO 2001: IUCN Classes I-VI

35. Roles for U.S. Forests? 25% of global wood supply; ~20% of protected forests  Industrial forest: ~ 68 mil ac; ~ 9%  NIPF/Family forest: ~ 363 mil ac; ~ 48%  Other public forest: ~ 170 mil ac; ~ 23%  National Forest: ~ 147 mil ac; ~ 20% Answers depend on global forces, policy choices made in federal, state, tribal and private sectors and on individual behaviors (incl. risk attitude)

36. Roles for Oregon Forests? 5% of national wood supply; ~33% in IUCN Class i-vi  Industrial forest roles: ~ 5.8 mil ac; ~ 21%  Family forest roles: ~ 4.6 mil ac; ~ 16%  State forest roles: ~ 0.9 mil ac; ~ 3%  Tribal & County forest roles: ~ 0.5 mil ac; ~ 2%  Federal forest roles: ~ 16 mil ac; ~ 57% Answers depend on global forces, policy choices made in federal, state, tribal and private sectors and on individual behaviors (incl. risk attitude)

37. Policy Challenges  Determine roles/policies for stands, units, ownerships re sustainability goals  Policies/incentives to blend, nest patterns for different roles at landscape scale  Balance risks, costs, benefits of options  Set targets for and track indicators of success by role and scale Oregon Benchmarks Oregon Benchmarks Sustainable Forest Management Indicators Sustainable Forest Management Indicators

38. Align Management to Purpose PVFMVFCVF Industry Family Tribal State Federal * * = inclusions of biotopes or special habitats will occur in these types

39. RVF Landscape-scale Integration Sustainable Forest Management PVF MVF CVF

40.  Forest managers: SFM, various goals  Producers: deliver quality, price, value  Marketers: full disclosure  Consumers: make wise choices  Teachers: be informed, tell full story  Scientists: R&D, inform policy choices  Governments: set policies, assure equity  Interest groups: honest advocacy  Social contracts: invest for future vitality Shared Responsibilities

41. NIPF’s Critical Role

42. U.S. Forest Use Class by Owner 1997 Source: USDA FS 2001

43. Western Forest Use Class by Owner 1997 Source: USDA FS 2001

44. Eastern Forest Use Class by Owner 1997 Source: USDA FS 2001

45.  Sustain Forests First: keep forestlands in forest uses  Give forest sector incentives, knowledge, and tools to sharpen performance on goals, stay competitive  Lift yields, productivity, value  Reduce risks, improve environmental performance  Maintain social license for all forms of sustainable forest management Sustainable Forestry Goals

46. Is this a healthy forest? Is it sustainable? It all depends on purpose and context

51. Hardin’s Filters Against Folly  Literacy: words matter -- align words w/ meaning  Numeracy: numbers matter -- quantify accurately  Ecolacy: relationships matter -- know the linkages  Key policy question: And then what? What do we get? What do we get? What do we give up? What do we give up? Impacts somewhere else, sometime later? Impacts somewhere else, sometime later? Is there a better way? Is there a better way?

53. Extreme ideologies are not constructive Markets know best Nature knows best Government knows best Scientists know best I know best Locals know best The law is clear CommonGround Only 1 way

54. Collaboration and respect are constructive Common Ground Markets are a means Learn from nature Government sets standards Science informs choices Everyone has ideas Locals know a lot Laws give direction Many ways