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NCEP Production Suite Review: Land-Hydrology at NCEP

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Presentation on theme: "NCEP Production Suite Review: Land-Hydrology at NCEP"— Presentation transcript:

1 NCEP Production Suite Review: Land-Hydrology at NCEP
Michael Ek and the EMC Land-Hydrology Team Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) NOAA/NWS NCEP Production Suite Review, 6-8 December 2011 NOAA Science Center, Camp Springs, Maryland

2 Land model role: Energy Budget
• Noah land model closes the surface energy budget, & provides surface boundary conditions to NCEP models. seasonal storage

3 Land model role: Hydrological Cycle
• Noah land model closes the surface water budget, & provides surface boundary conditions to NCEP models.

4 NCEP-NCAR unified Noah
land-surface model Noah model has realistic land physics & is coupled with NCEP short-range NAM, medium-range GFS, and seasonal CFS, and run “uncoupled”, i.e. NLDAS, and GLDAS (in Climate Forecast System).

5 Noah Land Model Connections in NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite
Climate CFS Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III 2-Way Coupled Hurricane GFDL HWRF MOM3 1.7B Obs/Day Satellites 99.9% Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT Global Forecast System Regional NAM WRF NMM (including NARR) Global Data Assimilation Uncoupled “NLDAS” (drought) Severe Weather Regional Data Assimilation WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF Short-Range Ensemble Forecast North American Ensemble Forecast System WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM Forecast Air Quality GFS, Canadian Global Model NAM/CMAQ NOAH Land Surface Model NCEP-NCAR unified Rapid Update for Aviation (ARW-based)

6 July monthly diurnal 10-m wind (m/s)
Land model validation Low-level observations (e.g. 2-m temperature & humidity, 10-m winds); 10+ year data set. Additionally: upper air scores, precipitation threat & bias scores, specific flux site validation. west 2010 east 5 4 July monthly diurnal 10-m wind (m/s) 3 3 2011 5 4 obs: solid, NAM: short-dash, GFS: long-dash 3 3 24 48 72hr 24 48 72hr 00Z Forecast Cycle

7 2011: NMMB & New Land Data Set
• New land-use (vegetation type) data set based on MODIS used by Noah land model in NAM. Land-use type (1-km, MODIS) • Better surface representation yields better surface fluxes and temperature forecasts in NAM.

8 2011: CFSv2 and Land Noah replaced OSU land model in CFS (from GFS).
Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS): Daily update of land states via uncoupled Noah driven by CFS assimilation cycle atmospheric forcing and blended observations+model precipitation. Reasonable soil moisture climatology, and energy & water budgets closure. Reanalysis as initial conditions for reforecasts. May Soil Moisture Climatology from 30-year NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), spun up from Noah land model coupled with CFS. 8

9 2012: Extend GFS upgrade to NAM
Surface layer (surface roughness) modifications in GFS (Xubin Zeng et al, Univ. Arizona) in 2010. Operational: Cold bias in skin temperature (left), warm bias in air temperature (e.g. 48-hr 850mb fcst, right). GFS-GOES, 3-day mean: 1-3July2007 00z08Jul z10Nov2008 New roughness: Improved skin temperature (left), air temperature (right).

10 2012: North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS)
Noah, SAC, VIC, Mosaic land models run uncoupled, driven by CPC observed precipitation and atmos. forcing from NCEP North American Regional Climate Data Assimilation System; output: 1/8-deg. land & soil states, surface fluxes, runoff & streamflow. Land model runs provide a 30-year climatology. Anomalies used for drought monitoring; supports National Integrated Drought Information System. July 30-year climo. July 1988 (drought) July 1993 (flood) July 2011 NLDAS four-model ensemble monthly soil moisture anomaly

11 2012: New land data sets • Near realtime greenness frac.
Green Vegetation Frac. (AVHRR) • Near realtime greenness frac. • LAI (Leaf Area Index) = veg. density Leaf Area Index (MODIS) June 2007 LAI GVF • MODIS snow-free albedo • MODIS max snow albedo • Better surface representation should yield better surface fluxes and T, RH, wind forecasts. • Update NAM, GFS, and other NCEP systems.

12 Future Land Model/Related Upgrades
Important for high-res (~downscaling): Lake model & climatologies in NAM then GFS; Fire/burned area (account for surface changes); cycle land in future. Assimilation of surface quantities, e.g. soil moisture, surface temperature, snowpack, vegetation fraction. Surface layer turbulent mixing in stable conditions: affects surface fluxes and night-time temperatures. Under NEMS, unify Noah model in NCEP systems. River routing/streamflow (discharge to oceans). New Noah land model (coop. with NCAR/others): 3- layer snowpack, explicit canopy, dynamic vegetation, CO2-based transpiration, ground-water, air quality, ecosystems & biogeochemical cycles.

13 Physics “Wheel of Pain”
Questions?


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