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PPR 2008:03 081023

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Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bonds Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

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Figure 2. CPI with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

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Figure 3. GDP with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

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Figure 4. Difference between interbank rates and government bond rates (TED spread) Basis points Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

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Figure 5. Policy rates and three-month interbank rates in the USA and Sweden Per cent Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

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Figure 6. Stock market movements Index, 04.01.99 = 100 Source: Reuters EcoWin

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Figure 7. GDP abroad TCW-weighted, annual percentage points Sources: National sources and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

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Figure 8. Oil price, Brent crude USD per barrel, future price Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank

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Figure 9. Monetary policy in the euro area and the USA Per cent Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

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Figure 10. GDP for the United States and the euro area Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Eurostat, Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Riksbank

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Figure 11. GDP Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

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Figure 12. Exchange rate movements SEK per euro Source: Reuters EcoWin

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Figure 13. TCW exchange rate Index, 18.11.92=100 Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

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Figure 14. Export Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

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Figure 15. Household’s disposable incomes, consumption and saving ratio Annual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of disposable income Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

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Figure 16. Fixed gross investment Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

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Figure 17. General government net lending Per cent of GDP Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

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Figure 18. Number of hours worked Index, quarter 1 2000 =100, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

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Figure 19. Labour force and number of employed Thousands, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

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Figure 20. Unemployed Percentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

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Figure 21. Actual and trend productivity growth in the economy as a whole Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

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Figure 22. Unit labour costs for the economy as a whole Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

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Figure 23. Employment rate Employment as a percentage of the population,16-64 year, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

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Figure 24. Estimated gaps Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

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Figure 25. CPI, CPIF and CPIX Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

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Figure 26. CPI Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

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Figure 27. Repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

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Figure 28. Real repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

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Figure 29. CPI Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

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Figure 30. The CPIF, outcome and forecasts on different occasions Annual percentage change Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note: Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast

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Table 1. Inflation, annual average Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in September 2008 is stated in parenthesis.

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Table 2. Inflation, 12-month average Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in September 2008 is stated in parenthesis.

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Table 3. Key figures, annual average Annual percentage change unless otherwise specified Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in September 2008 is stated in parenthesis. * Percentage of labor force

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Table 4. Repo rate forecast Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in September 2008 is stated in parenthesis.

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Figure 31. GDP Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

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Figure 32. Production gap (GDP) Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

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Figure 33. Labour market gap Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

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Figure 34. Repo rate assumptions Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

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Figure 35. Real interest rate Per cent Source: the Riksbank

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Figure 36. CPI Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

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Figure 37. TCW exchange rate Index Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

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Figure 38. Production gap (GDP) Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

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Figure 39. Labour market gap Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

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Figure 40. Repo rate assumptions Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

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Figure 41. CPI Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

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Figure 42. Real interest rate Per cent Source: The Riksbank

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Figure 43. CPI Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

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Figure 44. Repo rate assumptions Per cent, quarterly averages Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. Source: The Riksbank

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Figure 45. Real interest rate Per cent, quarterly averages Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

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Figure 46. Stock market movements and implied volatility Index, 1 January 1990=1 and per cent Sources: Standard & Poor's and Chicago Board Options Exchange

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Figure 47. Two-year interest rates Per cent Source: Reuters EcoWin Note: Government bonds with approximately 2 years left to maturity.

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Figure. 48 Basis-spread and TED-spread in Sweden Per cent Source: Reuters EcoWin

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Figure 49. Monetary policy expectations in Sweden according to money market participants Per cent Sources: Reuters EcoWin, Prospera Research AB and the Riksbank

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Figure 50. Exchange rates SEK per Euro and dollar Source: Reuters EcoWin

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Figure 51. Interest rates in Sweden Per cent Sources: Reuters EcoWin, SBAB, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

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Figure 52. House prices and total lending to Swedish households Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

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Figure 53. Money supply Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

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Figure 54. Employment and private consumption in the United States Annual percentage change Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Department of commerce

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Figure 55. Economic indicators in the euro area Index, December 2005 = 100, respective annual percentage change Sources: European Commission and OECD

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Figure 56. Konsumentpriser CPI Sources: Bureau of Labour Statistics, Eurostat and Office for National Statistics

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Figure 57. CPI excluding energy and food Annual percentage change Source: OECD

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Figure 58. HICP for the Euro area Annual percentage change Source: Eurostat

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Figure 59. Confidence indicators in the business sector Seasonally adjusted net figures, monthly observations Source: National Institute of Economic Research

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Figure 60. Purchasing managers’ index and National Institute of Economic Research’s confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry Seasonally-adjusted index and net figures Sources: Swedbank and National Institute of Economic Research

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Figure 61. Retail sales and household consumption Annual percentage change Source: Statistics Sweden

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Figure 62. Household financial wealth and saving Per cent of disposable income Source: Statistics Sweden

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Figure 63. Households expectations for the future Net figures Source: National Institute of Economic Research

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Figure 64. Gross fixed capital formation Annual percentage change Source: Statistics Sweden

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Figure 65. Foreign trade with goods and fixed prices Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Three-month moving averages.

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Figure 66. Number of employed Thousands, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

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Figure 67. Hiring plans and number of employed in the business sector Balance and annual percentage change Sources: National Institute of Economics research and Statistics Sweden

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Figure 68. Proportion of firms reporting a shortage of labour Per cent, seasonally-adjusted data Source: National Institute of Economic Research

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Figure 69. New and unfilled vacant jobs and redundancy notices Thousands, seasonally adjusted data Source: Swedish Public Employment Service

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Figure 70. Capacity utilisation in industry Per cent, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden

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Figure 71. Full utilisation of companies' resources, private service industries Proportion of companies Source: National Institute of Economic Research

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Figure 72. Wages in the construction, service and manufacturing sectors Annual percentage change Sources: National Mediation Office and the Riksbank. Note. Three-month moving average.

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Figure 73. Wages Annual percentage change Sources: National Mediation Office and the Riksbank

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Figure 74. Actual inflation (CPI) and households' and companies' expectations of inflation one year ahead Annual percentage change Source: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden

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Figure 75. The difference between nominal and real five-year rates (break-even inflation) Percentage points Sources: The Riksbank

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Figure 76. Different agents' expectation of inflation one, two and five years ahead Annual percentage change Source: Prospera Research AB

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Figure 77. Different agents' expectation of inflation two years ahead Annual percentage change Source: Prospera Research AB

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Figure 78. Food, energy and mortgage costs in the CPI Annual percentage change Source: Statistics Sweden Note: The weight of CPI of the respective components is given in brackets.

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Figure 79. Commodity prices USD, index Source: The Economist

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Figure 80. Different measures of underlying inflation Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

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Figure R1. Financial balance, forecasts Per cent of GDP Sources: Ministry of Finance, National Institute of Economic Research and the Riksbank

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Figure R2. Slower price increases Balance Source: The Riksbank

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Table A1. Inflation, annual average Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in September 2008 is stated in parenthesis.

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Table A2. Inflation, 12-month average Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in September 2008 is stated in parenthesis.

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Table A3. Summary of financial forecasts, annual average Per cent, unless otherwise specified * Per cent of GDP Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in September 2008 is stated in parenthesis.

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Table A4. International conditions Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in September 2008 is stated in parenthesis.

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Table A5. GDP by expenditure Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified *Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in September 2008 is stated in parenthesis.

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Table A6. Production and employment Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated * Per cent of labour force Source: Employment Service, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in September 2008 is stated in parenthesis.

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Table A7. Wages and unit labour cost for the economy as a whole Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, calendar-adjusted data * Contribution to the increase in labour costs, percentage points Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in September 2008 is stated in parenthesis.

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Table A8. Scenario with intensified effects of the credit crisis, annual average Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Main scenario’s forecast in brackets.

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Table A9. Scenario with weaker krona, annual average Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Main scenario’s forecast in brackets.

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Table A10. Scenario with continued high inflation, annual average Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Main scenario’s forecast in brackets.

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