1. Thailand Fiscal Projections Suphannada Lowhachai Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) and Sang-Hyop Lee University of Hawaii and East-West Center November 12, 2014 NTA 10, Beijing, PRC

2. Thailand’s Public Administration Draft Budget Cabine t Budget Approve d Ministri es Local Governm ent Units  Infrastructures  Education  Health  Other Social Services peo ple NESDB Budget Bureau MOF + + 1 2 3 4 75% 25% 20% of GDP

3. Budget Allocation by Purpose, FY2014 and FY2015 FunctionFiscal YearChange from FY2014 to FY2015 20142015 Mil.Baht% % % General Services911,48636.1917,88735.66,4010.7 Economic Affairs530,06121.0549,89221.419,8323.7 Community and Social Services 1,083,45442.91,107,22143.023,7612.2 Education518,51920.5532,41720.713,8982.7 Health252,99610.0261,36810.28,3713.3 Social Work217,1338.6227,8438.810,7104.9 Others94,8063.885,5943.3-9,212-9.7

4. Public-Private Consumption Shares of Public and Private Consumption (%)  For all ages, on average, private consumption accounted for larger share of total consumption.  However, public sector played significant role in supporting expenditure for younger and older population.  Share of public sector was low and stable during the working ages.

5. Results: Public-Private Consumption Annual Per-capita Education Expenditure (THB)  Education in Thailand was mainly financed by public resources.  The public share was higher than 80% for almost all education levels except for the elderly group (60+)  It should be noted that public spending on education was highest in primary education level (5-14).  This is due to the fact that in Thailand, this education level is compulsory and fully supported by the government.

6. Results: Public-Private Consumption Annual Per-capita Health Expenditure (THB)  public-private share of health expenditure was varied with age.  The percentage share of public spending on healthcare was higher in early childhood (0-5) and elderly (60+) groups, almost equal private contribution in children (5-14) and working age (25-59) groups, and less than private spending in teenager group (15-24).  It should be noted that in 2011, the health consumption of population age 60 years and above was highest compare to other age groups

7. 2 targets and 2 constraints scenarios 2 targets scenarios – Capitalist transformation – Social welfare transformation 2 constraints scenarios – No constraint – Size of government & public debt (both)

8. Capitalist target, no constraints

9. Capitalist target, constrained

10. Social welfare target, no constraints

11. Social welfare target, constrained