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Copyright © 2004 Bolton Institute John Parkin Principal Lecturer Bolton Institute Determination and measurement of factors which influence propensity to.

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1 Copyright © 2004 Bolton Institute John Parkin Principal Lecturer Bolton Institute Determination and measurement of factors which influence propensity to cycle to work

2 Copyright © 2004 Bolton Institute District level variation in cycle use – 1991 Proportion using the bicycle for the journey to work from the 1991 census

3 Copyright © 2004 Bolton Institute Overall census journey to work proportion by bicycle 198119912001 England4.11%3.21%3.11% Wales1.59%1.41%1.53% Scotland1.44%1.36%1.53% Great Britain 3.76%2.97%2.89%

4 Copyright © 2004 Bolton Institute Districts with more than 8% cycle mode share 2001 District Name and Code2001 % cyclists1991 % cyclists1981 % cyclists 12UB Cambridge28.34%26.06%27.61% 38UC Oxford16.22%16.26%20.25% 15UH Isles of Scilly15.59%15.04%6.58% 00FF York UA13.06%17.93%20.98% 00FA Kingston upon Hull, UA12.32%12.69%15.07% 24UF Gosport11.44%14.45%14.70% 32UB Boston11.13%14.31%18.91% 33UG Norwich9.37%9.75%12.98% 42UH Waveney9.27%11.54%16.60% 00JA Peterborough UA8.33%10.76%13.83% 00FC North East Lincolnshire UA8.19%8.54%11.84%

5 Copyright © 2004 Bolton Institute Districts with 1% point increase or more 2001 District Name and Code2001 % cyclists 1991 % cyclists 1981 % cyclists 2001-1991 00AM Hackney6.83%4.03%2.56%2.81% 12UB Cambridge28.34%26.06%27.61%2.28% 00HB Bristol; City of UA4.94%3.30%3.21%1.64% 00AU Islington5.15%3.52%2.59%1.63% 00MC Reading UA4.44%2.83%3.98%1.61% 00AN Hammersmith and Fulham5.21%3.80%3.89%1.41% 00AY Lambeth4.47%3.06%2.49%1.41% 18UC Exeter4.84%3.44%4.07%1.40% 00AG Camden4.10%2.78%2.52%1.32% 39UD Oswestry2.94%1.75%5.94%1.19% 00ML Brighton and Hove UA2.97%1.82%1.53%1.15% 00BJ Wandsworth4.22%3.07%3.12%1.14% 00BE Southwark3.98%2.89%2.21%1.10% 00FY Nottingham UA3.93%2.93%2.96%1.00%

6 Copyright © 2004 Bolton Institute Waldmans research Waldman (1977) undertook the first aggregate analysis of cycle trip making. He demonstrated that hilliness and danger are important factors. Type of borough Predicted cycle level Example boroughs Actual cycle levels HILLY and SAFE 4% Matlock Worsley Bodmin 4% 6% FLAT and DANGEROUS 6% Hammersmith Liverpool Barking 5% 3% 9% HILLY and DANGEROUS 0% Sheffield Plymouth Burnley 1% 2% FLAT and SAFE 43% Goole Newark Cambridge 52% 42% 36%

7 Copyright © 2004 Bolton Institute Risk research studies Waldman recommended that measures be developed for accident risk that can be related to traffic and road features. Mathew (1995) used Waldmans model: significant increases in cycling would occur if danger were halved. Landis et al. (1997) used responses from cyclists cirumnavigating a pre-determined circuit. Guthrie et al. (2001) undertook similar research in the UK to determine what were termed cyclability factors.

8 Copyright © 2004 Bolton Institute Overview of modelling Risk rating survey (primary data) Census, transport and physical factor data (secondary data) Non-linear regression analysis of ratings data Logit model analysis of ratings data using threshold of acceptability Analysis of 8850 wards with %JTWB as dependent variable Analysis of 1117 wards with %JTWB as dependent variable

9 Copyright © 2004 Bolton Institute The video based technique Real life is time consuming and will limit the variety of environments exposed to respondents. Video has the following advantages: 1.Respondent senses movement in traffic. 2.Respondent will feel and think from the cyclists point of view. 3.Respondent will feel physically close to traffic. 4.Respondent will look ahead and consider developing road situation from cyclists point of view.

10 Copyright © 2004 Bolton Institute The survey instrument The principal questions asked of the respondents are: 1.How do you rate risk to you from traffic? 2.How do you rate threats to you from sources other than traffic?

11 Copyright © 2004 Bolton Institute Developments through the pilot A pre-pilot grouped 20 video clips into journeys comprising 4 clips each. Methodology abandoned: respondent memory problems. A pilot showed each of the 20 clips individually. Results of the correct order: BUT CANNOT BUILD ROUTES.

12 Copyright © 2004 Bolton Institute The full survey methodology Junctions represent the punctuation marks in the sentence length of the route; it is crucial to understand the relationship between the two. New methodology: 1.Respondents home to work journey 2.Vary this by addition and removal of junctions and substitution of route lengths 5 mins7 mins15 mins 3 mins Traffic lights, no facilities right turn J4 Rbt, with facilities straight on J5 Busy road into town –R7 Traffic calmed road R3 Residential road – R2 Town centre – R8

13 Copyright © 2004 Bolton Institute Respondent characteristics (n=144) Cyclist TypeCycling frequency Description%Bands% Can cycle but do not61.8Never cycle35.4 Leisure cyclist16.7Occasional holiday times / weekends 38.9 Commuter / utility cyclist 8.31 – 3 times per month 5.6 Cycle tourist2.11 – 2 times per week6.9 Sports cyclist0.02+ times per week13.2 Mixture of types11.1 Total100.0Total100.0

14 Copyright © 2004 Bolton Institute Sources of variability in the data Clues from worded descriptions Scale points too coarse / linear:non-linear Too large a rating change on an addition/removal/substitution Not rating the clips they were viewing and assuming different traffic conditions Obtuse / tired / too difficult or other bias Risk Rating versus Personal Security Rating indistinct

15 Copyright © 2004 Bolton Institute Rating scale response shapes LinearLogisitcGompertz Asymptotic to 10Asymptotic to 1Weibull

16 Copyright © 2004 Bolton Institute Non-linear modelling Phase 1: investigate response shapes using dichotomous variables for presence of route or junction Phase 2: add in variable for time on route and number of junctions traversed Phase 3: investigate and eliminate spurious respondents and variables Phase 4: add in variables for cyclist regularity, sex and age Phase 5: further modelling with Gompertz looking at interaction effects

17 Copyright © 2004 Bolton Institute Some overall findings Respondents rated traffic free situations as less risky, roundabouts add risk, not true for signals Regularity of cycling, age and sex interact with journey variables Threats from sources other than traffic included: Pedestrians, children, parked cars, animals, gully gratings, other ironworks and potholes and the state of the road.

18 Copyright © 2004 Bolton Institute Main Model functional form Model of the form: Saturation level at 100% Saturation level at 45%

19 Copyright © 2004 Bolton Institute Main Model functional form %JTWB = fn {age, car ownership, SEC, ethnicity, distance, highway defects score, network density, hilliness, rainfall, mean temperature}

20 Copyright © 2004 Bolton Institute So what….? and where to…..? Rating scale use is complex, essential to understand. Individuals threshold levels are a useful guide to acceptability of cycling to create a district wide measure. Many complex interactions of person type and journey type. More work on the main model (8850 wards) and the main sub-model (1117 wards) using the outcome from the acceptability of cycling model

21 Copyright © 2004 Bolton Institute John Parkin Bolton Institute j.parkin@bolton.ac.uk


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