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1. The macro-economy: a theoretical model 2. Controlling the economy: fiscal policy 3. Money and the macro-economy 4. Inflation and unemployment 5. An.

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Presentation on theme: "1. The macro-economy: a theoretical model 2. Controlling the economy: fiscal policy 3. Money and the macro-economy 4. Inflation and unemployment 5. An."— Presentation transcript:

1 1. The macro-economy: a theoretical model 2. Controlling the economy: fiscal policy 3. Money and the macro-economy 4. Inflation and unemployment 5. An open economy: international macroeconomics MACROECONOMICS

2 What is the purpose of macroeconomics? to explain how the economy as a whole works to predict the consequences of policy action to understand why macro variables behave in the way they do (trends and fluctuations) What factors determine national income and employment? Can the government affect national income through fiscal and monetary policy?

3 How do interest rate decisions reached by the central bank affect the economy? What factors determine national savings and investment? What factors determine the exchange rate? Why is the trade balance important?

4 THE CIRCULAR FLOW OF INCOME Households Tax Firms Wages, profits ExportsImports Demand for goods Government Investment

5 A MACROECONOMIC MODEL: THE DEMAND SIDE Building blocks consumption65% investment15% government spending20% exports25% imports -25% These five variables play a critical role in determining national income and employment. Hence: need to be explained.

6 What determines aggregate consumption? disposable income (Y - T) interest rates (investment) uncertainty (confidence in future income stream) wealth (asset prices, house prices) expected future income (e.g. pensions) age structure of population

7 Investment new capital equipment; not savings/ shares What determines investment? initial cost of investment interest rate (cost of borrowing) expected future income from investment The investment decision Present value of investment > 0

8 Cost of capital: increases as level of investment increases internal funds (retained profits) borrowing from financial institutions selling equity stock in business How would a reduction in interest rates affect investment? lower borrowing costs lower mortgage rates (higher demand for houses) increase in saving (lower expenditure)

9 Determination of national income: a demand-based model Assumptions 1. Aggregate supply of goods responds to demand - unlimited supplies of labour and capital 2. Aggregate demand for goods and services is determined as follows: AD = C + I + G + X - M Model (see figure) Predictions: - if AS > AD, stocks increase, output falls - if AD> AS, stocks decrease, output rises - if AD = AS, economy is in equilibrium

10 Factors causing national income to change 1. If expenditure increases, so will income 2. Why might AD increase? consumption responds to - fall in prices (e.g. production costs fall) - wealth increases (house prices, stock market) - interest rates fall (monetary authorities) - lower taxes (govt. policy) investment - increase in expected profits (business optimism) - fall in borrowing costs

11 government spending - transfer payments increase - capital spending increases - expenditure on education/ health increases net exports - fall in exchange rate - increase in competitiveness - increase in world income

12 The supply side So far assumed that AD alone determines national income What about supply-side constraints? capital stock is limited in the short run supply of labour is limited skills shortages may arise

13 Implications of a limited supply of factor inputs wages increase as labour demand increases diminishing marginal productivity (fixed supply of capital) producers willing to supply more output only at higher prices supply can be increased over the long run (increase in capital stock) Revised model interaction between AD and AS determines the economys income and price levels

14 Revised model interaction between AD and AS determines the economys income and price levels Consider the effects of: - an increase in production costs - an increase in the supply of resources (e.g. capital stock, technology) - an increase in the demand for goods

15 Extended model Assumption: AS is fixed by the economys output capacity labour market is assumed to clear (full employment) AD negatively related to price level - fall in price leads to higher demand (real money balances increase, spending increases) - fall in price reduces demand for money, interest rates fall (lower interest rate, higher spending) AD positively related to aggregate spending - investment increases as business expectations improve

16 AD positively related to money supply - if money supply increases, interest rate falls (investment increases) A further modification AS may not be fixed at the full employment level AS may be upward sloping in the short run: - sticky prices - unemployed labour willing to work at current wages ( costs do not rise as more labour is employed)

17 MACROECONOMIC POLICY Objectives of macro policy: full employment stable prices steady growth equitable distribution of income balance of payments equilibrium (medium term)

18 Policy instruments Fiscal policy govt spending (health, education, etc) taxation (income, expenditure, excise duties) income transfers (pensions, welfare) Monetary policy interest rates money supply Exchange rate policy fixed v floating

19 FLUCTUATIONS IN BUSINESS ACTIVITY Historical record recessions can be very severe all countries experience booms /slumps recessions are usually shorter than expansions business cycles are highly synchronised between partners - inter-country linkages business cycles are less severe than in past - govt spending is stable - automatic stabilzers have worked - active monetary policies (Greenspan after Asian crash)

20 Causes of business fluctuations unexpected shocks - wars, oil-prices, financial crises shifts in AD - investment is volatile (unpredictable behaviour) - price stickiness causes changes in realvariables technology shifts - new products / new processes govt-induced shocks - poor management of fiscal / monetary policy - time lags

21 FISCAL POLICY What is fiscal policy? - govts attempt to control AD via G and T Role and importance of fiscal policy fiscal activism - fine-tuning of AD to achieve full employment - fine-tuning to reduce amplitude of business fluctuations fiscal balance has replaced fiscal activism - fine-tuning via fiscal policy has failed - monetary policy has replaced fiscal policy how could govt pay for fiscal expansion in a recession? - increasing G causes income to increase - increase in income leads to higher taxes

22 problems with fiscal activism - fiscal activism involves discretionary action - govt has to decide how much stimulus is needed - need to know effect of fiscal injections (macro models used to predict effects) - budget deficits can easily get out of hand

23 automatic stabilisers - kick in when economy moves into recession - welfare payments increase - tax revenue falls in recessions (to maintain C) fiscal policy stance - budget deficit does not necessarily mean that fiscal stance is expansionary; recessions cause deficits - fiscal stance may be tight at full employment

24 Reasons for the decline of fiscal activism difficult to predict effects - inadequate knowledge of how economy works - macro models are inadequate - poor data - long time lags in policy effects - poor timing of policy changes

25 political interference results in wrong policy action - political cycles - systematic bias towards deficits (popularity of low taxes) fiscal activism results in increasing debt - debt/gdp ratio increases (debt has to financed)

26 Dedt / gdp ratios % EU Japan USA Germany France UK Italy104113

27 Government spending / gdp % EU Japan USA Germany UK France Italy

28 Reducing debt may have expansionary effects cut in G can lead to: - lower interest rates - more confidence in govts macro policy - inflow of private FDI greater consumer / investor confidence

29 fiscal activism is useless due to crowding out - crowding out of private I via high interest rates - households reduce spending due to expectation of higher taxes in future But: - households may not make link between budget deficit and future taxes - households may not care about the distant future - not much evidence to support negative impact of crowding out

30 Sustainability of debt: govts worry about debt/gdp: many developing countries get into trouble (Mexico) - desire for growth non-tax payers / taxpayers increasing due to demographic time bomb e.g. % USA Japan EU need to keep interest rates below gdp growth rate to get debt / gdp down (or to run a deficit while keeping debt / gdp constant)

31 Conclusions fiscal policy has become more conservative debt burden too big; need for surpluses to repay debt inflationary consequences of expansionary policies financial markets nervous of increases in govt debt (Can the govt meet its debt repayments?) pressure to reduce size of public sector - efficiency gains from privatisation - lower interest rates automatic stabilisers essential for macro stability

32 fine-tuning replaced by coarse-tuning sustainability of debt - discretionary fiscal policy still has a role to play - co-ordinated policies macro-policy between G7 (G3?) needed to keep world economy stable (due to high rate of transmission of economic shocks)

33 MONEY AND THE ECONOMY What is money? What does money do? How does money affect the economy? What determines the money supply? What determines the demand for money? What determines interest rates? What is monetary policy?

34 What is money? What counts as money? depends on its accessibility (degree of liquidity) - cash - bank deposits - interest-bearing deposits - time-deposits (savings) - short-term Treasury bills (near money) What does money do? - medium of exchange - store of wealth - unit of account (measure of relative value) - relates the future to the present (wage contracts, repayment of debt)

35 How does money affect the macro economy? Money affects the economy via interest rates: r affects expenditure (C and I) exchange rates (and therefore X and M) property prices bonds and shares

36 The financial sector: the central bank issues cash banker to commercial banks banker to govt (manages govt borrowing) regulates commercial banks controls liquidity position of commercial banks operates monetary policy operates exchange rate policy

37 The financial sector: the money market Organisations - commercial banks - large firms - pension funds - building societies - foreign exchange market Intruments - govt bonds / gilts - certificates of deposit - loans to households - overdrafts - mortgages

38 Monetary policy Central bank controls monetary conditions: controls liquidity through lending rate (repo) - commercial banks can borrow at the repo rate - repo rate is a signal (determines all other interest rates) - low repo encourages banks to borrow and lend - high repo discourages banks from borrowing

39 Determination of interest rates Demand for money transactions purposes - price level - income - interest rate (opportunity cost) precautionary purposes speculative purposes - expected change in price of bonds - bond price inversely related to r - hold money if bond prices are expected to fall - hence: demand for money high when r is low

40 Causes of changes in money supply banks can reduce their liquidity ratios - switch / direct debit has reduced demand for cash - banks borrow from each other (overnight) to achieve a satisfactory liquidity position surplus in balance of payments - inflow of foreign exchange govt creates high-powered money to finance a deficit - multiplier effects on broad money (M) M = k (H) M = broad money H = high-powered money k = money multiplier

41 govt sells short-term Treasury bills (near money) - commercial banks expand loans to customers govt buys long-term bonds and sells short-term Treasury bills to increase liquidity (funding)

42 Determination of interest rates Govt sets the money supply Private sector determines demand for money r Demand / supply for money r1r1 M1M1 M d = f(P, r, y) M s = M 1 What happens if: - money supply increases - income increases - prices increase

43 Monetary policy in practice Central bank does not control the money supply directly controls interest rates via open market operations How does the CB control interest rates? announces an interest rate - base rate/repo rate paid by banks for borrowing money from the CB follows this up with OMO - buys gilts from banks to increase liquidity (results in lower r) - sells gilts to banks to decrease liquidity (banks earn an income from gilts)

44 Independence of central bank USA and Germany: long history of CB independence other countries followed in 1990s (e.g. UK in 1997) Advantages of independence monetary policy free from manipulation strengths credibility (inflation targets more believable CB free to achieve its specific objectives Disadvantages low inflation is not the only policy goal govt deflects blame for failure of economic policies Performance lower inflation achieved tight monetary policy has led to higher unemployment in EU

45 The European Central Bank sets interest rate for all member states most independent CB in world; not accountable to any single country sets target inflation rate for whole Eurozone sets 3 interest rates - lender of last resort (e.g. 5%) - loans to banks (e.g. 4%) - borrowing from banks (e.g.3%) to mop up surplus liquidity sets minimum reserve ratio (to keep banks under control)

46 INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT What is inflation? Some facts inflation varies over time within countries inflation varies between countries What causes inflation? quantity theory of money excess demand model of inflation cost-push factors (wages, imported inflation) a dynamic model of inflation

47 Quantity theory of money Expenditure = Sales quantity x velocity = price level x output of money MV = Py Suppose V and y are constant then P = (V/y)M or rate of change in P = rate of change in M

48 Excess demand model of inflation If AD > AS……….prices rise if AD < AS……….prices fall AS AD 1 AD 2 P2P2 P1P1 y1y1 y2y2

49 AD can increase for several reasons: consumption suddenly increases investment increases (expectations improve) money supply increases (fall in r) exports increase (world trade expands) Inflation is self-perpetuating: wage-price spiral expectations of inflation Cost-push shocks: triggered by wage push, oil price hikes

50 A dynamic model of inflation: the augmented Phillips curve wage inflation = f (expected price inflation, XD) expected price inflation: - based on forecasts of macro-economy (e.g. capacity utilisation, monetary growth) Does a trade-off exist? - short-run - long-run

51 Costs of inflation inflation increases uncertainty - consumers get confused signals about prices (essential information for optimal resource allocation) menu costs shoe-leather costs: searching for best buy adverse effects on fixed income groups adverse effects on savings

52 adverse effects on growth of gdp/capita - lower in vestment due to uncertainty - shortens investors time horizon (quick returns) costly to reduce inflation: dis-inflation = unemployment hyper-inflation is economically and politically disasterous

53 Costs of deflation borrowers find their real debts increasing - discourages borrowing - fall in asset prices reduces consumption lenders lose if debtors go bankrupt prices decline but wages are sticky - decline in demand for labour - fall in profits and investment real interest rates increase - discourages investment leads to persistent recession: consumers delay spending

54 Control of inflation requires a powerful commitment to stable prices - implies strict control over G control over inflation in hands of CB - inflation is lower in countries with independent CB govt needs to set clear inflation targets - avoids govt pressure to relax monetary policy govt not permitted to borrow from CB to finance deficits - must borrow from private sector supply-side policies needed - labour market flexibility - anti-monopoly policy to increase competition

55 high level of scrutiny of CB needed - openness of how decisions are reached - subject to scrutiny / questioning by elected body increasing emphasis placed on controlling interest rates - less emphasis on controlling money supply - use open market operations to control interest rates accurate forecasts of macro-economy needed - lagged effect of monetary policy on economy - need forecasts of turning points - need to forecast leading indicators (change in stock, long-term bond yields, commodity prices, overtime working)

56 stopping hyper-inflation - nominal exchange rate anchor(e.g. dollarisation) (to restrain cost-push inflation, including imported inflation) - restrictive fiscal policies (balanced budget) - tight monetary policies (e.g. via independent CB) - structural reforms (liberalise financial markets, flexible labour markets, free trade, privatisation of public enterprise, anti-monopoly policies)

57 Argentina Fiscal balance Inflation Growth (% GDP) Short-term pain = long-term gain?

58 Has inflation been beaten? strong public support for price stability - ageing population prefers low inflation financial markets strongly averse to inflation - govt keeps close eye on financial markets - pre-emptive action taken v. inflation greater price competition - supply-side changes (labour markets, privatisation, internet trading, creation of new markets) - erosion of trade union power less vulnerable to oil price hikes - more alternative sources of energy - diversification in use of energy

59 UNEMPLOYMENT varies between countries varies within countries over time varies within countries at any point in time

60 Causes of unemployment collapse in aggregate demand Policy action: need for fiscal / monetary policy action mismatch between labour demand and labour supply - geographical immobility of labour - skill/occupational mismatch Policy action:need for spatial policies / re-training programmes welfare benefits too high Policy action: creation of work incentives (New Deal)

61 hiring / firing costs too high - employment legislation too tough on employers Policy action: reduce fixed costs of employing labour wages too high (trade union power) - wages are sticky downwards - efficiency wage v. nominal wage Policy action: more flexible wages needed (especially with fixed exchange rate e.g. euro)

62 What is the natural rate of unemployment? Definition: unemployment existing when the economy is in equilibrium (AD =AS) Determinants: job search structural factors (mismatch) voluntary unemployment unemployment benefit hysteresis and long-term unemployment

63 THE OPEN ECONOMY: INTERNATIONAL ASPECTS OF THE MACRO-ECONOMY the balance of payments the exchange rate economic and monetary union (EMU)

64 What is the balance of payments? Why are policy makers concerned about the BP? How can govts correct a BP problem? How are exchange rates determined? How can the CB affect the exchange rate? Is a single currency for Europe desirable? Should the G3 (G7) co-ordinate their macro-policies? How should world debt problems be tackled?

65 The balance of payments records all flows of money between countries BP = current acc + capital acc Current account (or financial account) - exports minus imports of goods / services - govt transfers (e.g. EU taxes / subsidies) Capital account - fixed investment (FDI) - bonds, equities, deposits (portfolio investment)

66 Current account Exports+165 Imports -192 Services +11 Net income +7 Net govt transfers -4 Balance -13 Capital account FDI (net)+173 Portfolio (net)-143 Short-term flows (net) -23 Balance+10 Reserves +1 Error -2 Balance of payments 0

67 Surpluses and deficits in the BP Surplus: BP > 0 - foreign exchange reserves increase - accumulation of foreign assets - exchange rate too high Deficit: BP < 0 - foreign exchange reserves decline - loss of foreign exchange reserves - deficit has to be financed (borrowing) - loss of control over domestic assets - downward pressure on exchange rate; inflationary

68 Determinants of the BP BP = exports - imports + net capital flows exports = f (exch rate, competitiveness, world income) imports = f (exch rate, competitiveness, income) net capital flows = f (r / world r, country risk) Model:BP = f ( e, w/w*, y*, y, r/r*) e = exchange rate (£/$) w = real wage; w* = world real income y = incomey* = world income r = interest rater* = world interest rate

69 Govt intervention exchange rate policy: buying / selling domestic currency fiscal / monetary policy to control AD - raise / lower r (capital account) - change G or T (trade account) supply-side policies - improve competitiveness via labour market flexibility

70 The exchange rate e = £ per $ (or s = $ per £) Determination of e: a simple model Demand for £s (= supply of $s) importers of UK goods / services tourists visiting UK foreign students in UK universities foreigners investing in UK UK citizens with foreign income Supply of £s (= demand for $s) opposite to above

71 Model:e = f ( x - m, r - r*) When will exchange rate appreciate? Current account: demand for exports increases demand for imports decreases competitiveness increases (w / w* increases) Capital account: inflow of foreign investment (r / r* increases)

72 Fixed or floating exchange rates? Advantages of a fixed exchange rate certainty for exporters / importers/ investors no speculation (e.g. between countries with common currency) imposes constraints on govt macro policy - constrained by effect on BP - constrained by effect of policies on inflation - govt has to achieve BP equilibrium over medium term

73 Disadvantages of a fixed exchange rate economic policy will be constrained by fixed exchange rate - chronic BP deficit requires deflationary policy - conflict between full employment and BP equilibrium sudden shocks cannot be absorbed by ER adjustment - shocks affect real economy fixed ER encourages protectionism - due to impact of shocks on real variables speculators cause political crises

74 Advantages of floating exchange rates govt ignores ER; no intervention needed no need to worry about BP economy is insulated from shocks (absorbed by ER) govt can concentrate on internal policy objectives (inflation, unemployment, income distribution)

75 Disadvantages of floating exchange rates exchange rate can be volatile in the short run - causes uncertainty (harmful to investment / trade) capital flows can cause ER to get out of line with its underlying (fundamental) value loss of BP constraint on macro-policy may lead to inflationary bias - with a fixed ER, govt has to respond to BP deficits

76 Advantages of a single currency lower transactions costs (currency conversions) increased price competitiveness - transparent pricing across countries elimination of exchange rate uncertainty - encourages trade - encourages investment (inc. FDI) lower inflation and interest rates - central bank independent of member govts - member states have to keep wage increases in line to maintain competitiveness

77 Disadvantages of a single currency surrenders economic sovereignty to supra-national authority - no control over monetary policy - no control over exchange rate deflationary effects in countries with high wage pressures increase in regional disparities due to greater factor mobility potential loss of control over fiscal policy (cannot use monetary expansion to pay for increase in G)

78 Why might the Euro Zone not be an optimal currency area? labour markets are not flexible enough - wages may be sticky downwards - labour is not sufficiently mobile to respond to changes in demand - effects of changes in euro ER will vary between member states / regions But: alternative methods of dealing with adverse effects of structural change - structural funds for re-training - structural funds for encouraging indigenous growth - infrastructure policies to revive declining regions

79 Globalisation and macroeconomic policy Interdependence worlds economies increasingly inter-dependent steadily increasing world trade - dependent on each others demand for exports vast increase in financial flows due to liberalisation of financial markets - abolition of controls on currency movements - financial markets affect each other (instantaneously) - Fed has profound effect on rest of worlds economies

80 Co-operation between G7: policy harmonisation need for policy harmonisation to prevent worldwide recession / inflation - exchange rates should not be out of line (need to keep current accounts in reasonable balance) - inflationary pressures are easily transmitted to other countries - co-ordination of interest rates may be needed to prevent adverse capital flows G7 need to deal with the problem of developing country debt

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