1. Tran Thi Ut Faculty of Economics, UAF, HCM City, VN Green Revolution In Asia And Its Transferability To Africa Tokyo, Japan 8-10, December 2002

2. Introduction  The stagnation rice production in 1960s-70s  Rapid growth of rice production in 1980s-90s  The effects of “miracle rice” and the “Doi Moi” policies in rice production from 1980s-1990s  Purposes of the paper:  to assess the relative contribution of the “Doi Moi” and other reform policies using regional data  to explore whether GR has been sustainable in the country ?  to examine the yield gap between favorable and unfavorable rice production area  to inquire what factor affect yield using HH level data

3. MV Adoption and Yield Changes in VN MV adoption Southern VN -May 1966, IR8 was first introduced and was renamed to Than Nong 8 (TN8)(Than Nong :Miracle rice), - in 1975 : 33% rice area with MV Northern VN - In 1968 IR 8 was introduced and was renamed to Nong Nghiep 8 (NN8) (Nong Nghiep: Agriculture) - IR8 was adopted to the winter-spring 1968, covered 50% rice area

4. Table 1. Adoption of MVs and TVs in Southern Vietnam, 1968-75

5. Problem of MV1 and the introduction of MV2 1972: IR8 & IR5 were affected by BPH and were replaced by TN73-1 (IR1529-6-80), TN73-2 (IR 1561-22-8), IR26, IR30. 1978: 700,000 ha of rice areas planted to MVs in MRD were damaged by BPH and ragged stunt disease, and IR36 with strong resistance to new BPH was rapidly introduced. Can Tho University developed a new series of MVs with good grain quality and strong resistance to new BPH from 300 line crosses with cultivars containing the BPH-resistance gene from IRRI. IR42 has shown great suitability and virtually replace the traditional medium –height rice varieties in saline-affected rainfed rice field with semi-deep water in MRD. 1980s : IR1820-210-2 (IRRI) and CR203(VASI) with highly resistant to blast were widely planted for the blast prone areas in northern VN.

6. Fig 1a. Changes in MV Adoption and Yields of Rice per Hectare in Northern Vietnam

7. Fig. 1a. Changes in MV Adoption and Yields of Rice per Hectare in Southern Vietnam 1980-98

8. Fig.2 Location of major rice growing regions

9. Table 2. Changes in Total Rice Area and MV Adoption by Major Ecological Region in Selected Years from 1980 to 1998

10. Table 3. Yield of MVs and TVs (tons/ha) by Major Ecological Region, 1980-1998

11. Development of MVs in VN Shorten the growth duration: OM1490, OMCS96 (85-90 days) Saline tolerance THDB (mutant from TVs) Developed a series MVs with resistance to pest and diseases for IRG areas, and tolerance of salinity and acid sulfate for rainfed areas

12. Estimation Results of Yield Regression The model Ln y it = a 0  + a 1 MV it +  i MV it (Regional Dummy) i +  i (Regional Dummy) i +  t (Year Dummy) t +  it. The results MV adoption dummy is positive and significant in 1980-98 MV*regional dummies are all negative and significant Coefficient of MV dummy is significantly larger for 1980s than for 1990s The coefficients of MV*NMH, MV*NCC, MV*SCC are neg. and became larger from 1980s to 1990s The coefficients of MV*NES and MV*MRD remained largely in 1980s and 1990s Coefficients of year dummies are positive and significant in 1980s but not so in 1990s compare with the base year 1980 -

13. Implication of Regression Results Green Revolution in Vietnam has been sustained by continuous improvement of MVs particularly for relatively favorable rice areas such as in RRD and MRD

14. Table 5. Basic Characteristics of Sample Villages and Sample Size of Households

15. Table 6. Socio-Economic Characteristics of Sample Households

16. Table 7. MV Adoption, Rice Yields, and Fertilizer Application Across Production Environments by Cropping Season a

17. Estimation of MV Adoption, Fertilizer Application and Yield Function MV Adoption function- Tobit model (Table 8) - Dependent Var: Ratio of areas planted to MVs to total rice planted area - Exp.Variables: IRG dummy, Regional dummies, Total farm size, Age, Schooling,Family worker, gender of HH heads, dry season dummy.

18. Results of Adoption Function of MVs IRG dummy : highly significant particularly for the South VN where irrigation is needed and drainage in dry season and drainage is needed during flooding time in MRD Three regional dummies : highly significant in North, lower in Outer MRD: MV adoption is high in areas with irrigation and favorable environment. Paddy area, number of worker, female head dummy are sig. Environmental factors largely determine the adoption of MVs in 1990s

19. Fertilizer application Fertilizer application function whole reigion, North and South - IRG dummy and two northern region dummy are positive - Outer Mekong Delta dummy :neg. significant due to salinity and fooding - NMH, RRD dummies were highly sig. Partly due to restoration of soil fertility brought about by flooding in MRD - Age of HH heads : sig positive –Farmers’ experiences is a crucial role in Fer. application - Schooling is non sig. : Farmer experiences in rice production plays a crucial role than schooling

20. Determinant of rice yield Yield function for whole region, North and South (Table 10) - IRG dummy positive significant -The three regional dummies have neg. significant coefficients (equation 1) due to the higher yield in MRD with availability of irrigation water and effective water control - Total paddy areas is insignificant in equation 1, neg. significant in North, weakly sig. positive in South: Farm size should not effect resource allocation and yields. - Age: neg. effect -

21. Concluding Remarks Green Revolution began in favorable areas and spread to less favorable areas over time In VN, Green Revolution started in the late 1970s (whole the country) after the war when the MV2 with resistant to pest and diseases were already available Green Revolution has been sustained up to the end of 1990s National agriculture research system played a criticaly important role in developing location - specific appropriate technologies

22. Remaining issues There is needed to analyze the origin and timing of various MVs application To assess the effects of MV cum irrigation technologies on total factor productivity

23. Thank you