1. The risk assessment model SYNOPS and its approach in frame of a general indicator set for sustainable plant protection in Germany Volkmar Gutsche and Jörn Strassemeyer JKI - Federal Research Centre for Cultivated Plants, Institute for Technology Assessment in Plant Protection Stahnsdorfer Damm 81, D-14532 Kleinmachnow e-mail: volkmar.gutsche@jki.bund.devolkmar.gutsche@jki.bund.de or joern.strassemeyer@jki.bund.de joern.strassemeyer@jki.bund.de

2. Julius Kühn-Institut (JKI) Institute for Strategies and Technology Assessment in Plant Protection Background German National Action Plan (NAP) on Sustainable Use of Plant Protection Products since 2004 German NAP has to be adopted according the EU - Directive establishing a framework for Community action to achieve a sustainable use of pesticides First national stakeholder conference for NAP – adaption in June 2009 : ->The progress in reaching the targets of NAP has to be measured by a set of indicators ->The indicator set should include existing approaches as well as new definitions ->Compatibility to harmonised EU – indicators should be achieved small working group is now preparing a first proposal for such indicator set

3. Julius Kühn-Institut (JKI) Institute for Strategies and Technology Assessment in Plant Protection Models: - Risk assessment for earthworms by SYNOPS-model Models: - Risk assessment for be by SYNOPS-model Agricultural production Agricultural income Terrestrial biodiversity Soil Soil organisms Ground- and Surface water Water organisms Human health Consumer Operator Resident Surveys (NEPTUN, farm network): -Application index per crop -Application area per pesticide Secondary data analysis of different sources - Infestation pressure Data analysis and survey results: - Hazard classification of pesticides for operators - Number of pesticides and application area per hazard class Monitoring: - Pollution of groundwater - Pollution of surface water Monitoring: - Exceeds of MRL‘s (consumer) Models: - Risk assessment for water organisms by SYNOPS-model Models: -Risk assessment for the MRL- exceeds by VELS-model - Risk assessment for operators by HAIR-submodel Measurements: - Ratio of farmer’s partici- pation in training courses - Ratio of farmer’s access to performances of advisory service Measurements: - Number of participants in agri-environmental programmes P R E S S U R E S T A T E (potential) I M P A C T R E S P O N S E Targets of national action plan Draft of indicator set Monitoring: - Birds in agricultural landscapes - Specific butterflies - Damage on bees caused by pesticides

4. Julius Kühn-Institut (JKI) Institute for Strategies and Technology Assessment in Plant Protection exposition pathways in SYNOPS drainage run-off drift interception drift Load, C(t) sPEC, lPEC soil surface water non target plants surface water field margin risk potential  earthworm  daphnia  algea  fish  bee

5. Julius Kühn-Institut (JKI) Institute for Strategies and Technology Assessment in Plant Protection The model SYNOPS more or less sophisticated sub-models Exposition Toxicity LC50 / NOEC of test organisms earthworm, bee, daphnia, fish, algae Spray drift (Ganzelmeier Tables + FOCUS functions) Run-Off (Model developed by Lutz 1984, REXTOX, Drips) Drainage (meta-model based on MACRO) Erosion (USLE based model, comparable to FOCUS) two mainstreams of model approach Risk assessment for application patterns and GIS-aided regional risk analysis Tracking risk trends on national level

6. Julius Kühn-Institut (JKI) Institute for Strategies and Technology Assessment in Plant Protection Sales data on the annual volume of active ingredients from : 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2005 (serves as base line – years) 2006, 2007 2008 (in progress) Compiling of a list of all relevant (registered) potential uses (indications)* and calculation of their application area in the corresponding year according to the procedure of Gutsche & Rossberg (OECD, 1999) * Indication = use of a pesticide in a certain crop for a certain target (pest) with a registered dose rate to a registered application time/period and, if necessary, applying certain risk mitigation measurements like buffer zone to adjacent surface water courses etc. = 7857 indications Tracking risk trends - the database

7. Julius Kühn-Institut (JKI) Institute for Strategies and Technology Assessment in Plant Protection 1.) For each potential use (indication) SYNOPS calculates a set of 5 (earthworm, bee, daphnia, fish, algae) risk indices SYNOPS runs under „worst case“ application conditions: - The application site is adjacent to a ditch with depth of 0.3 m and width of 1.5 m - 3 days after application a strong rainfall of 30 mm happens - The application site has a slope of 3% - The soil of the application site is loamy with organic carbon content of 1.5% 2.) Each indication gets a weight according to its estimated application area Weighted mean values per year were calculated for herbicides, fungicides and insecticides separately Additionally, weighted mean values of the 5 risk indices for the period 1996 - 2005 in total were calculated for herbicides, fungicides and insecticides. They form the base line. All mean values per year were related to the values obtained for the base line (base line = 100%) These relative indices for the different test organisms were summarised for the terrestrial and aquatic compartment: Relative risk terrestrial = (risk earthworm + risk bee) / 2 Relative risk aquatic = (risk daphnia + risk fish + risk algae) / 3 3.) Weighted aggregation of risk indices Tracking risk trends - the SYNOPS processing

8. Julius Kühn-Institut (JKI) Institute for Strategies and Technology Assessment in Plant Protection Tracking risk trends – results herbicides 0.0001 0.0001 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 SYNOPS relative risk index herbicides (average 1996-2000 = 100%) SYNOPS absolute risk index herbicides

9. Julius Kühn-Institut (JKI) Institute for Strategies and Technology Assessment in Plant Protection 0.0001 0.0001 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 Tracking risk trends – results fungicides SYNOPS relative risk index fungicides (average 1996-2000 = 100%) SYNOPS absolute risk index fungicides

10. Julius Kühn-Institut (JKI) Institute for Strategies and Technology Assessment in Plant Protection Tracking risk trends – results insecticides 0.0001 0.0001 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 SYNOPS relative risk index insecticides (average 1996-2000 = 100%) SYNOPS absolute risk index insecticides

11. Julius Kühn-Institut (JKI) Institute for Strategies and Technology Assessment in Plant Protection GIS-based application of SYNOPS SYNOPS calculates the risk potential of all orchards within the considered region.  regional approach –input data for all fields in the considered region have to be available on field level –the calculated field based risk potentials are then analysed or aggregated in the spatial dimension  geographical databases + GIS procedures

12. GIS based risk assessment with SYNOPS Geographical Database, ATKIS high resolution data set on land use and land cover The average slope is calculated for each field using a digital elevation model (DGM-D). Long-term precipitation and temperature (1971-2000) is derived from digital climate maps of the German Weather Service on monthly basis The application strategies are distributed randomly according to a field based survey (NEPTUN) Fruit crops are distributed randomly accoding to agricultural statistics on community level PSM- database SYNOPS active ingredient database The main soil types are derived for each field a digital soil map (BÜK1000). GIS-data GIS-based risk analysis Lake Constance Minimal distance from the field to the edge of the surface water is derived with GIS procedures from ATKIS field based risk assessment

13. region Lake Constance risk potential for daphnia (ETR daphnia ) 95%0.113 90%0.056 75% Q30.018 50% Median0.007 25% Q10.000 10%0.000

14. Aggregated risk potentials based on the NEPTUN surveys in 2001, 2004 und 2007 aquatic risk potential 90. Percentile

15. acute risk potential fraction of area with ETR>1 Aggregated risk potentials based on the NEPTUN surveys in 2001, 2004 und 2007

16. aquatic risk potential 90. Percentile influence of compliance to buffer zone requirements

17. Aquatic risk of all orchard regions Orchard regions

18. Julius Kühn-Institut (JKI) Institute for Strategies and Technology Assessment in Plant Protection Thank you for your attention!