1. Threat Evaluation & Weapon Assignment Centre of Excellence Jaco Roux* & JH van Vuuren* 27 November 2008 STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY LEDGER Conference ‘08

2. STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY 2 OVERVIEW Context of Work TEWA Decision Support Collaborators Past & Current Activities Future Activities Medium Term Objectives

3. STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY 3 Context of Work (GBAD) Targets Radar Sensors Weapon Systems HQ Assets

4. STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY 4 What is TEWA?

5. STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY Collaborators 5 STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY Centre of Excellence TFDC UDDC Military Academy

6. STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY 2 x Honours Projects Design of a weapon assignment system –Francois du Toit –Completed October 2006 The assignment problem –Grant van Dieman –Completed October 2006 6 Francois du ToitGrant van Dieman

7. STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY Masters Project 1 Real-time TE of Fixed Wing Aircraft in the GBAD environment –Jaco Roux –Completed April 2006 7

8. STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY Masters Project 2 Measuring the Threat Value of Fixed Wing Aircraft in a Ground Based Air Defence Environment –Andries Heyns –Completed March 2008 8

9. STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY Masters Project 3 Real-time Weapon Assignment in a Ground Based Air Defence Environment –Cobus Potgieter –Completed March 2008 9

10. STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY Masters Project 4 The Dynamic Weapon Target Assignment Problem in a Ground Based Air Defence Environment –Francois du Toit –To submit December 2008 10

11. STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY Masters Project 5 Modeling Rigid Body Kinematics with Splines –Jacques du Toit –To submit December 2008 11

12. STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY Masters Project 6 Solution methodologies for the classical assignment problem –Grant van Dieman –To submit February 2009 12

13. STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY Masters Project 8 Aircraft Membership Estimation in a Ground Based Air Defense Environment –Willa Lotz –To submit September 2009 13

14. STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY Contract Research [1] Roux JN & van Vuuren JH, 2007, Threat evaluation and weapon assignment decision support: A review of the state of the art, ORiON, 23(2), pp. 151-187. [2] Roux JN & van Vuuren JH, 2008, Real-time threat evaluation in a ground based air defence environment, ORiON, 24(1), pp. 75-101. 14

15. STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY Conferences ORSSA 2004 (1 presentation) ORSSA 2005 (5 presentations) LEDGER 2005 (1 presentation) LEDGER 2006 (4 presentations) ORSSA 2007 (8 presentations) LEDGER 2007 (4 presentations) IFORS 2008 (5 presentations) 15

16. STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY Workshops I Attack Technique Workshops –TFDC/OTB Workshop (2006) Presented TEWA work Lecture Lance Wellington Obtained flight profile data –US Workshop I (2007) Presented TEWA work Presentations by Jan Durandt Sensitizing of flight profile data –Langebaanweg Workshop (2007) Introduction to simulator Informal discussion pilot –US Workshop II (2008) Lecture John Erasmus 16 TFDC Military Academy

17. STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY Workshops II Asset Assessment Workshops –RRS Workshop (2006) –UDDC Workshop (2006) Scenario Workshops –RRS Workshops (2005-2008) –DPSS Workshops (2006-2008) –UDDC Workshops (2008) Operator in the Loop Workshops –IMT/Ergotec Workshop 17 UDDC

18. STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY Future Masters Project 1 Evaluation of a fully fledged TEWA system in a GBADS environment –Basie Kok –To submit Junie 2009 18

19. STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY Future Masters Topics Masters 2 (2009/10): Topic: Data management and pattern recognition in an AWARENET environment –Management, filtering and evaluation of intelligence data. Masters 3 (2009/10): Topic: Threat evaluation with respect to poaching in a marine and coastal management environment –The design of a decision support system to recognize poaching activities. Masters 4 (2010/11): Topic: Design of a resource assignment decision support system in a law enforcement environment –Implementation of a decision support system to aid the law enforcement authorities with the assignment of resources. Masters 5 (2011/12): Topic: Design of a resource assignment system on ADA regiment level –Use of utility and assignment theory to design a decision support system for operators on ADA regiment level. 19

20. STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY Future PhD Project 1 The Design of a TE Subsystem –Jaco Roux –To submit September 2009 20

21. STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY Future PhD Topics PhD 2 (2009/10/11): Topic: Design of a weapon assignment system in the GBAD environment –A decision support system is designed to propose possible engagement between threats and effectors in real-time. PhD 3 (2010/11/12): Topic: Design of a multi-timescale threat evaluation decision support system with respect to drug trafficking and poaching in a marine and coastal management environment –The design of a system to monitor and identify threats during real-time or larger periods of time (i.e. 1 month) 21

22. STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY 22 Other Future Activates (2009-2012) Contract Research & Interest Development Projects –Further build Centre of Excellence Computing Facilities –Postgraduate research laboratory containing 12 workstations –Maintain and update equipment Workshops –Workshops with various military partners –Workshops with various industry partners Conferences –LEDGER 2009-2012 –ORSSA 2009-2012 –IFORS 2011

23. STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY Medium Term Objectives Medium term planning, 4 years, to create a sustainable centre of excellence Main objective, in cooperation with RRS, to develop the first South African TEWA DSS product for future GBADS phases (Ph2+) Secondary objectives to develop or support development of DSSs: –TEWA on higher levels of ADA –TEWA or TERA in the JAD environment –TE DSS during Operations Other Than War (OOTW) Soccer World Cup 2010 Peace Keeping –Task force assignment of SAP –TE DS for coastal surveillance