Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

REDUCTIONS IN THE INCIDENCE OF CARE NEED IN WEST AND EAST GERMANY BETWEEN 1991 AND 2003: COMPRESSION-OF-MORBIDITY OR POLICY EFFECT? Uta Ziegler Gabriele.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "REDUCTIONS IN THE INCIDENCE OF CARE NEED IN WEST AND EAST GERMANY BETWEEN 1991 AND 2003: COMPRESSION-OF-MORBIDITY OR POLICY EFFECT? Uta Ziegler Gabriele."— Presentation transcript:

1 REDUCTIONS IN THE INCIDENCE OF CARE NEED IN WEST AND EAST GERMANY BETWEEN 1991 AND 2003: COMPRESSION-OF-MORBIDITY OR POLICY EFFECT? Uta Ziegler Gabriele Doblhammer Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Tours, 23.07.2005

2 INTRODUCTION 1. population aging in Germany 2001 2050 inhabitants 82.4 Mio 75 Mio 60+ 24% 37% 80+ 3.9% 12% 2. Development of people in need of care? 2001 2050 needy people 2.04 Mio ? 2.47% ? Quelle: StBA (10. koordinierte Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung, mittlere Variante)

3 Data SOEP - SocioEconomic Panel started in 1984 in West Germany with 5921 households, 12290 surveyed people in 1990 East Germany was included with 2179 households, 4453 surveyed people Analysis starts in 1991

4 RESULTS - 3912 people are included during analysis time (1991-2003) - 44% males (StBA: 42% in 2000) - 27% East Germans (StBA: 18.3% in 2000) - 309 events

5 Data Care Question: Does someone in your household need constant care due to old age or illness? - if yes, with - errands outside the house - running the household - preparing meals and drinks - simple personal help (dressing, washing, etc.) - difficult personal help (getting in and out of bed, bowel movement etc.)

6 Data the different samples in the SOEP

7 METHOD LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS - event studied: transition into care need of people above age 60 - event-history model applied - left truncated data – no information about health status before entry into panel - definition of care: help needed with simple personal help and difficult personal help

8 RESULTS absolute risk of transition into care need per 1000-person-years

9 source: SOEP (Note: ***p<0.01; **0.01p<0.05; *0.05p<0.1 RESULTS

10 RESULTS Interaction between Region and Period source: SOEP

11 RESULTS Interaction between Sex and Period source: SOEP

12 RESULTS Figure 2: Trends in the age standardized incidence of care (per 1000 person years) for German males between 1991/92 and 2002/03 (with 95% confidence intervalls) source: SOEP

13 RESULTS Figure 2: Trends in the age standardized incidence of care (per 1000 person years) for German males between 1991/92 and 2002/03 (with 95% confidence intervalls) source: SOEP

14 IV. Conclusion - Longitudinal - increase of care need with age - care need incidence slightly higher for males - in second period (1998-2003) lower transition risk for West and East Germans - transition risk decreases primarily for males between the years 1994/95 and 1995/96

15 V. CONCLUSION compression of morbidity or policy effect?

16 www.demogr.mpg.de


Download ppt "REDUCTIONS IN THE INCIDENCE OF CARE NEED IN WEST AND EAST GERMANY BETWEEN 1991 AND 2003: COMPRESSION-OF-MORBIDITY OR POLICY EFFECT? Uta Ziegler Gabriele."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google