1.  “The urgency in which our nation needs to address issues related to sustainability, such as energy and climate change, is amplified by the fact that for the first time since the Pliocene, CO 2 levels have reached 400 ppm (March 2013)…Therefore we look to our young people to be leaders and stewards of Earth’s many systems, knowing that 80% of the jobs you will have in the future do not yet exist. Presently, 80% of the fastest growing occupations in the U.S. require STEM adequacy, but the U.S. is currently not graduating enough students who are able to fulfill this growing need.”

2. …lots and lots and lots of math. 2/18/1996

3.  What is the scientific method?  What does the scientific method assume?  Does the scientific method work?  What is not a scientific argument?  What is a bias?

4. 1. Observe an event. 2. Develop a model (or hypothesis) which makes a prediction. 3. Test the prediction. 4. Collect data 5. Revise the hypothesis. 6. Repeat as needed. 7. Communicate results- A successful hypothesis becomes a Scientific Theory. model test

5. Scientific MethodHigh Cholesterol ObservationPatient has high cholesterol Hypothesis (prediction) Certain chemicals may dissolve cholesterol deposits. TestGive 100 patients these chemicals, give 100 patients placebo. Observe resultSame number lower their cholesterol as placebo patients. Revise hypothesis? Try different combo of chemicals. New test?Re-run medical test. Observe results. Scientific TheoryLipitor reduces cholesterol.

6. Scientific MethodCar Repair ObservationEngine won’t turn over. Hypothesis (prediction)Predict battery is dead. TestReplace battery. Observe resultEngine now turns over. Revise hypothesis?Not needed. New test?Not needed. Scientific TheoryCars won’t work without a fully charged battery.

7.  Independent Variable= “what do I change?”  Dependent Variable= “what is observed, effected, or measured by the change?”  Control= “what stays the same?”

9.  So: a theory is a highly successful hypothesis.  Theories make predictions and can be tested.  Any scientific theory is subject to change as our ability to make tests, or make observations of a test’s results, improves with time.  Ex: The Cell Theory was revised because of advancements in technology

10.  A successful theory is repeatable.  By you.  By anyone.  Assumes:  Objective reality We all see the same world.  Constant Laws of Nature What happens here, happens there. What happened yesterday will happen tomorrow.

11.  Law= readily observable fact  Doesn’t needed to be tested Ex: The Law of Gravity  Theories won’t “grow up” to become a law

12.  Make no predictions  Un-testable  Can’t be falsified What does this sound like?

13.  Car won’t work?  Aliens drained the battery.  Car won’t work?  Better sacrifice a goat to appease the Gods.  Spaghetti is bland?  At the instant of tasting, tongue is transported to alternate dimension where all flavors are rendered nullified. Happens instantaneously.

14.  Objectivity is the key to good science.  To be objective, experiments need to be designed and conducted in a way that does not introduce bias into the study.  Science:  Makes predictions  Can be tested  Can be falsified

15.  Bias= A prejudiced presentation of material  A consistent error in estimating a value  Two main types of bias:  Sampling bias  Measurement Bias

16.  Sample = A group of units selected to be “measured” from a larger group (the population).  Sampling bias = introduced when the sample used is not representative of the population or inappropriate for the question asked.

17.  Is the method of data collection chosen in such a way that data collected will best match reality?  Evaluate the technique:  Measurements taken accurately  No additions to the environment that will influence results  Experiment designed to isolate the effect of multiple factors

18.  Use a random sample= every individual has an equal likelihood of being chosen.  Eenie, meenie, miney, mo…  Limit the question asked to the specific group sampled

19.  Sample size:  Is the sample big enough to get a good average size?  Selection of sample:  Does the composition of the sample reflect the composition of the population? Factors such as location, age, gender, ethnicity, nationality, and living environment can affect the data gathered

20.  Independent duplication = Two or more scientists from different institutions investigate the same question separately and get similar results.  Peer-reviewed journal = A journal that publishes articles only after they have been checked for quality by several expert, objective scientists from different institutions.

21.  Language  “Scientifically-proven” * Science does not seek to prove, but to disprove  Emotional appeals Data should convince you, NOT words!

22.  Appropriate data reported to back conclusions  Samples and measurements are appropriate for the conclusion presented  Multiple factors properly accounted for to justify the interpretation of the data

23.  Data source  University Research  Corporate Research  Government Research  Research by Special Interest Groups All organizations produce unbiased data. However, it is important to understand the organization’s motivation to be able to identify potential bias. In some situations, the need to promote special interests or make profits may lead to bias.

24. Number (%) of Reviews Article ConclusionTobacco Affiliated Authors (n=31) Non-Tobacco Affiliated Authors (n=75) Passive smoking harmful2 (6%)65 (87%) Passive smoking not harmful29 (94%)10 (13%) Significance Χ 2 =60.69; P<.001 Barnes, Deborah E. 1998. Why review articles on the health effects of passive smoking reach different conclusions. JAMA. 279(19): 1566-1570.  Investigations of Passive Smoking Harm:  Relationship between the article conclusions & author affiliations

25.  Good science depends on a well-designed experiment that minimizes bias by using the appropriate:  Sample size  Sample selection  Measurement techniques (*for the question being investigated*)