1. Using (MV-)QCA to determine the conditions of success of Green Parties Lasse Cronqvist Institute of Political Science University of Marburg (Germany)

2. This presentation This presentation will... use QCA style analysis to find conditions of success of green parties in the 80s... use a modification of QCA which allows the use of multi-valued conditions... start with a few conditions and add further conditions after the study of contradicting configurations

3. Why Multi-Value QCA QCA uses dichotomized values Some data can only be dichotomized with a substancial loss of data + nominal data might be better operationalized with non-dichotomized conditions (e.g. G. Esping-Andersens Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism)

4. Example

6. MVQCA The use of multi-value scales may result in configurations closer to original data and be used to reduce contradictions in the truth table But: Do not overdo: Using too many categories will individualize the configurations Few minimisations possible

7. MVQCA MVQCA works exactly like QCA, except: 1. Use of set notation (A{0}, B{1}, C{2}, etc.) 2. Minimisation is only possible if all values combined with the shorter expression share the outcome value QCA: ab + Ab bwith A dichotomous MVQCA: A{0}B{0} + A{1}B{0} + A{2}B{0} B{0} possible values for A: {0,1,2}

8. Success Intention: Determination of conditions of success of Green Parties in the 80s So far: No coherent explanations on varying success of Green Parties But how to code Success?

9. Success (2) Some authors: 4% Threshold Above: Success, Below: No success But: If the electoral threshold is set at 5%, a party winning 4.9% of votes will not consider itself as successful Here: Success if party was elected into parliament on a sustainable basis winning more than just one or two seats.

10. Success (3) Success = 1 Success = 0

11. Possible Conditions Well known statements on the success of Green Parties 1.New parties are disadvantaged in majority vote systems 2.Postmaterialism

12. Possible Conditions (2) Elec = 1 Elec = 0 GNP = 2 GNP = 1 GNP = 0

13. Truth Table Sufficient causes for the outcome 0 are found, but: Not all cases with outcome 0 are explained No case with outcome 1 is explained

14. Further Conditions? Cleavage-Theory by Stein Rokkan. Political conflicts are found in every society, but special circumstances are needed to create a cleavage with influence on the party system Is there an ecological cleavage? If yes: Which ecological questions are strong enough to found this cleavage? Casestudies on Germany & Sweden: Maybe nuclear policy?

15. Nuclear Power Policy

16. Population density

17. MVQCA Solutions Green parties were successful where necessary institutional (proportional elections) and socio- economical (medium or high GNP per capita) conditions were met and where conflicts over ecological issues were strong enough to found an ecological cleavage (active nuclear energy policy and/or high population density).

18. MVQCA Solutions 1. a majority vote system 2. low GNP / cap. 3. low or medium population density combined with the absence of nuclear power plants... are all sufficient conditions for the absence of successful green parties

19. Remarks Things to remember... Iceland: No successful Green Party, but: Womens alliance France: EP elections

20. MVQCA QCA Green parties were successful where necessery institutional (proportional elections) and socio- economical (medium or high GNP per capita) conditions were met and where conflicts over ecological issues were strong enough to found an ecological cleavage (active nuclear energy policy and/or high population density). Using this information we can convert the solution to a purely dichotomous QCA solution

21. Using (MV-)QCA to determine the conditions of success of Green Parties More Information: http://www.tosmana.org/oxford2006