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Using (MV-)QCA to determine the conditions of success of Green Parties Lasse Cronqvist Institute of Political Science University of Marburg (Germany)

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Presentation on theme: "Using (MV-)QCA to determine the conditions of success of Green Parties Lasse Cronqvist Institute of Political Science University of Marburg (Germany)"— Presentation transcript:

1 Using (MV-)QCA to determine the conditions of success of Green Parties Lasse Cronqvist Institute of Political Science University of Marburg (Germany)

2 This presentation This presentation will... use QCA style analysis to find conditions of success of green parties in the 80s... use a modification of QCA which allows the use of multi-valued conditions... start with a few conditions and add further conditions after the study of contradicting configurations

3 Why Multi-Value QCA QCA uses dichotomized values Some data can only be dichotomized with a substancial loss of data + nominal data might be better operationalized with non-dichotomized conditions (e.g. G. Esping-Andersens Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism)

4 Example

5

6 MVQCA The use of multi-value scales may result in configurations closer to original data and be used to reduce contradictions in the truth table But: Do not overdo: Using too many categories will individualize the configurations Few minimisations possible

7 MVQCA MVQCA works exactly like QCA, except: 1. Use of set notation (A{0}, B{1}, C{2}, etc.) 2. Minimisation is only possible if all values combined with the shorter expression share the outcome value QCA: ab + Ab bwith A dichotomous MVQCA: A{0}B{0} + A{1}B{0} + A{2}B{0} B{0} possible values for A: {0,1,2}

8 Success Intention: Determination of conditions of success of Green Parties in the 80s So far: No coherent explanations on varying success of Green Parties But how to code Success?

9 Success (2) Some authors: 4% Threshold Above: Success, Below: No success But: If the electoral threshold is set at 5%, a party winning 4.9% of votes will not consider itself as successful Here: Success if party was elected into parliament on a sustainable basis winning more than just one or two seats.

10 Success (3) Success = 1 Success = 0

11 Possible Conditions Well known statements on the success of Green Parties 1.New parties are disadvantaged in majority vote systems 2.Postmaterialism

12 Possible Conditions (2) Elec = 1 Elec = 0 GNP = 2 GNP = 1 GNP = 0

13 Truth Table Sufficient causes for the outcome 0 are found, but: Not all cases with outcome 0 are explained No case with outcome 1 is explained

14 Further Conditions? Cleavage-Theory by Stein Rokkan. Political conflicts are found in every society, but special circumstances are needed to create a cleavage with influence on the party system Is there an ecological cleavage? If yes: Which ecological questions are strong enough to found this cleavage? Casestudies on Germany & Sweden: Maybe nuclear policy?

15 Nuclear Power Policy

16 Population density

17 MVQCA Solutions Green parties were successful where necessary institutional (proportional elections) and socio- economical (medium or high GNP per capita) conditions were met and where conflicts over ecological issues were strong enough to found an ecological cleavage (active nuclear energy policy and/or high population density).

18 MVQCA Solutions 1. a majority vote system 2. low GNP / cap. 3. low or medium population density combined with the absence of nuclear power plants... are all sufficient conditions for the absence of successful green parties

19 Remarks Things to remember... Iceland: No successful Green Party, but: Womens alliance France: EP elections

20 MVQCA QCA Green parties were successful where necessery institutional (proportional elections) and socio- economical (medium or high GNP per capita) conditions were met and where conflicts over ecological issues were strong enough to found an ecological cleavage (active nuclear energy policy and/or high population density). Using this information we can convert the solution to a purely dichotomous QCA solution

21 Using (MV-)QCA to determine the conditions of success of Green Parties More Information:


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