Presentation on theme: "From the Ridiculous to the Sublime? Lessons from 2001 for the next Census Sheila Ritchie Policy Unit"— Presentation transcript:
From the Ridiculous to the Sublime? Lessons from 2001 for the next Census Sheila Ritchie Policy Unit
2 From the Ridiculous……… Census background Address database Targeting enumeration Field management Community liaison
Census background What went wrong?
Addresses & Household Spaces Census household spaces 186,300 Electoral Register addresses 196,900 Council Tax addresses 193,800 Census Matching Study 14,000
One Number Census 1.Census population 392,800 2.ONC-based MYE 392,900 3.Revised MYE 398,400 4.Provisional MYE 418,600 5.Final MYE 422,900 Change between 1 and 5 = 30,100
10 Address Database Lesson One
Address matching problems Address base for the Census was 1998 Addresspoint Manchester experienced rapid change between 1998 and 2001 No single definitive address data set suitable for Census use
Address Lists 1 Researching: A complete and up to-date address list is vital to deliver Census forms and even more so when using post-out. ONS take the lead in partnership with LAs/Local Government Association to provide guidelines for LAs on administrative address based databases. Include the Local Land and Property Gazetteer (LLPG), Electoral Register, Council Tax Register (CTR), Council & Registered Social Landlords (RSL) & Communal Establishments.
Address Lists 2 Researching: LAs need to produce nationally consistent robust address databases. New improved LA address databases can be used in conjunction with ONS address databases. Feedback following the rehearsal will give LAs the opportunity to adjust their databases, provide ONS with the most up-to- date list for Census Managers as close as possible to Census night.
Address Lists 3 Communal Establishments: LAs with high numbers of students, in conjunction with academics (who also have a vested interest) and educational establishments could produce lists of halls with number of bed spaces and expected occupancy rates on Census night. Educational establishments could produce lists of students term-time addresses and Council Tax could indicate wholly student households. Similar processes over Communal Establishments should be possible with other institutions such as prisons with the Home Office, armed forces camps with the MoD, and hospitals with the NHS.
15 Targeting Enumeration Lesson Two
CCS Sampled Postcodes
Targeting Enumeration 1 Hard-to-Count in 2001: 1991 Census data used to define the areas was out-dated. The combining of HtC areas 1 and 2 reduced the usefulness of having 3 categories. The selection of HtC areas for the CCS seemed to miss areas we would designate HtC.
Targeting Enumeration 2 Problem HtC people: The most difficult group, missing in both 1991 and 2001, were young men in deprived inner city housing estates and HMOs. Particularly from Caribbean, white and mixed ethnicity in these areas. These young men consciously avoided the Census and the CCS. They make no distinction between national and local government and avoid both.
Targeting Enumeration 1 Problem HtC people: We have the same problems trying to contact them as enumerators do. We need to target foreign nationals, students, immigrants (legal and illegal), asylum seekers and visitor switchers in hostels, shared houses and HMOs. HMOs cant be identified by counting bells or letter boxes. The Electoral Register (ER), though not perfect, is probably better at identifying HMOs. Recruiting enumerators from these communities could also help.
Targeting Enumeration 2 Identifying HtC Areas: LAs can identify HtC areas through the systematic collection of information on small areas. Council Tax can provide information on turnover rates, second and vacant homes, all student houses and County Court Judgements; Housing can provide data on HMOs, ASBOs and hard-to-let dwellings; Manchester Benefits Service can provide data on welfare benefits;
Targeting Enumeration 3 Cont…. Crime and Disorder Team can provide data on crimes such as robbery by police beat; Education Department can provide data on truancies and languages; Social Services can provide data on communal establishments and meals on wheels; Frontline staff can provide knowledge of an area anecdotally, e.g.: election canvassers; area housing officers; social workers; street cleaners and bin men.
Targeting Enumeration 4 HtC areas: Post out and post back will not work in areas where avoiders tend to live. They will still need enumeration in person. And still there will be avoiders. A more prominent threat of prosecution actually enforced might encourage them. Imputation will still be necessary. As will adjustments to the MYE.
23 Field Management Lesson Three
24 Field Management 1 Recruitment of field staff for HtC: ONS take the lead in setting guidelines for nationally consistent recruitment through LAs. LA can recruit Census managers, supervisors and enumerators, using the same methods used to recruit election staff for polling day and canvassers for ER. Use council staff, and direct recruitment of people from community groups. LAs are best placed to recruit staff that know the area and fit the same profile as people who live there, especially in relation to race, creed and language. Field staff should be recruited earlier than in 2001, better training and paid incentives to find addresses and people.
25 Field Management 2 Coverage of HtC: Enumerators delivering forms in HtC areas to be given maps as well as address lists and rewarded for every address and household they find not on their list. Increasing the response rate from the HtC areas should not depend solely on the enumerators commitment to an area. Enumerating the worst HtC areas should not be left to an individual enumerator, who might not like to admit fear of going out alone at night, should work in pairs or group blitzing an area together. Enumeration of communal establishments might achieve better results if covered by enumerators rather than by post-out.
26 Field Management 3 Enumeration of HtC: It is important that enumerators keep good records preferably electronically. Recording addresses as derelict or demolished must always be done and checked by supervisors. Some dwellings may look derelict when they are not. A complete record of residential addresses, whether occupied, vacant, or communal should be made. Dummy records should be collected for all types of non- response, not just residential occupied or vacant dwellings. Dummy records should be collected for non-residential commercial, demolished, derelict and non-existent addresses so every address is identified with an appropriate record.
27 Field Management 4 Help Centres for HtC: Many non-English speaking people are unlikely to contact call centres. Their English may not be good, they may feel peripheral to British society, they may fear authority, and an HMO may only have one payphone. LAs can open up local form completion centres in schools, libraries and other council offices in the worst HtC areas and areas with high proportions of ethnic minorities. LA staff and volunteers from community and religious groups can be trained to assist respondents to fill in the forms and even collect and post them. This could be done through concentrated publicity in these areas, directed at groups of people who do not consciously try to avoid the Census.
28 Community Liaison Lesson Four
29 Community Liaison 1 In 2011, LAs should invest their expertise, local knowledge and staff resources, as it is in their own interest to do so Census Working Group. The chair of the CWG will be the CLO. The CLO will be a person of authority. The secretary of the CWG will assist the CLO and be a Census expert.
30 Community Liaison Census Working Group will cover: Research and statistics: Census questions, geography, outputs, disclosure control; evaluation; Address list: residential property data, address database, new build, demolitions, vacancies, second homes, communal establishments; Targeting enumeration: administrative data, frontline experience; Data Collection: fieldwork, recruitment, networks, community groups; Publicity: Manchester People, local press and media, advertising.
31 Community Liaison CWG can draw on expertise: Chief Executives: Elections Office; Crime and Disorder Team; Youth Offending Team, Service Improvement & Inclusion Team; Translation and Interpretation; Voluntary Sector and Grants; Area Co-ordination; Property; Press Office; M4 Print; Regeneration Programmes; Planning Development Control, Planning Strategy and Building Control; Children, Families and Social Care: Early Years & Play; Youth Service; Family support; Social Work; Health & Social Care (elderly); Adult Division; Manchester Advice; Asylum Seekers & Refugees; Mental Health; Disabilities; and Care Establishments;
32 Community Liaison 4 Cont….. Corporate Services: Benefits & Council Tax; Valuation & Property; Education: Young Peoples Council; Diversity & Inclusion; Childrens Centres; Nurseries; Schools; Research & Statistics; and Adult Education; Environment & Operational Services: Refuse Collection & Street Cleaning; Housing: Estate Management; Sheltered Housing Wardens; Neighbourhood Wardens; Local Services Teams; On Call Advisers; Tenant Participation; Supported Housing; Private Sector; Rent Recovery; Information & Research; and Homelessness; Libraries: Local Groups; and Community services.
33 Community Liaison 5 Publicity internal: Publicity needs to highlight how the Census results relate to the services that the public receive. As well as services they may not receive such as education and meals-on-wheels. LAs can circulate ONS flyers and publicity material to voluntary, community and charitable organisations. Through libraries, schools, and other council offices and council run community and childrens centres. Through Council & RSL housing staff regularly visiting housing estates. To all council staff (MCC employs about 26 thousand people).
34 Community Liaison 6 Publicity external: LA Press Office to the local media and through council websites and publications. Local community radio stations and many ethnic minority newspapers, and religious organisations can do a lot to convince ethnic minority people about the importance of Census information. Simple plain English Guidance Notes should be provided for local Councillors, schoolteachers, religious groups/priests, community workers and front line workers on how to promote the benefits of the Census. ONS/LAs can provide speakers trained in the methodology and importance of the Census to talk to any organisation that requests a speaker.
35 Community Liaison 7 External Partners: Local voluntary, community and charitable groups; Local business organisations/Chamber of Commerce; GM Police and prison; NHS Health Authority/PCT (through the MJHU); Universities and educational establishments; Religious groups and places of worship; Local press.
To the Sublime……….? wait and see
37 Thank You to: ONS: –Staff too numerous to mention and papers: –Consultation on 2011 Census: a proposed design for England and Wales (ONS October 2003). –Working in Partnership with local Authorities on the 2011 Census. (ONS Advisory Group Paper CLIP (04) 01 November 2004). Manchester University: –Ludi Simpson and Ed Fieldhouse for invaluable advice.