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Counting output in ways that matter: lessons from Britains Railways …or… Dr Tim Leunig & Professor Nick Crafts

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Why have commuters been neglected since 1945? Dr Tim Leunig & Professor Nick Crafts

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Measuring output Passenger journeys Passenger miles Dr Tim Leunig Overhead 3 Counting output correctly

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Dr Tim Leunig Overhead 4 Counting output correctly

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Measuring output Passenger journeys Passenger miles Rather crude, and not quality adjusted Dr Tim Leunig Overhead 5 Counting output correctly

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Dr Tim Leunig Overhead 6 Aspects of quality Are the trains safe? Are the trains fast? Are the trains frequent? Are the trains on time? Can I get a seat? Are the sandwiches any good?

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Dr Tim Leunig Overhead 7 Fast v frequent People want to get from origin to destination, quickly Quickly means the time from when they want to leave until actual arrival Train speed and frequency are therefore substitutes and need to be considered together Counting output correctly

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Dr Tim Leunig Overhead 8 Methodology (1) Computerise the railway timetable Find out how speeds and frequency change over time Take into account that trains at some times of day are more important than at others Counting output correctly

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Dr Tim Leunig Overhead 9 Counting output correctly

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Dr Tim Leunig Overhead 10 Which train to catch? Preferred time of travel exogenous Take the first train after the time you want to travel Except do not take a train that will be overtaken by a later train mid-journey No endogeneity of preferred time of travel as a result of train speeds Counting output correctly

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Dr Tim Leunig Overhead 11 Allocating people to trains Counting output correctly

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Which journeys to include? Representative selection? Major journeys? Dr Tim Leunig Overhead 12 Counting output correctly

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Which journeys matter? Dr Tim Leunig Overhead 13 Counting output correctly

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Which journeys to include Representative selection? Major journeys? Journeys of different types Dr Tim Leunig Overhead 14 Counting output correctly

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5 samples Short commuter routes (Surbiton) Long commuter routes (Cambridge) Long distance routes (Leeds) Non-London routes Airport connections Dr Tim Leunig Overhead 15 Counting output correctly

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Dr Tim Leunig Overhead 16 Counting output correctly

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Dr Tim Leunig Overhead 17 Counting output correctly

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Overall result Since 1945, long distance trains have become faster Shorter distance commuter trains got faster until the earlier 1970s, and have since slowed down to their 1950 levels again Counting output correctlyDr Tim Leunig Overhead 18

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Commuter line quantity 375 million commuter journeys into Central London each year, 60m from Waterloo alone Dr Tim Leunig Overhead 19 Counting output correctly

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Passengers per station Dr Tim Leunig Overhead 20 Counting output correctly

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The value of time DoT methodology: modal-specific wage values for in work time, standardised for other time Rail work time £42/hour Commuting time all modes £5.75 Commuting rail time would be £8 Might be higher into SW London? Dr Tim Leunig Overhead 21

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Lost value Counterfactual: commuter trains get faster at the same rate as non- commuter trains since 1950 eg Surbiton-Waterloo 14 mins inc waiting (51mph total, 71mph IV on current frequency) Value @£8/hr: £440m (npv £6bn) Dr Tim Leunig Overhead 22

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So why hasnt it happened? Politics? Technical difficulties? Dr Tim Leunig Overhead 23

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Commuter line politics In commuter constituencies, lots of people commute: salience Non-commuting home owners gain as house prices reflect service Therefore you might expect government to improve these lines Dr Tim Leunig Overhead 24 Counting output correctly

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Commuter line politics Most London commuter constituencies vote Conservative And some are politically marginal – Croydon, North Kent, South Essex Dr Tim Leunig Overhead 25 Counting output correctly

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Commuter election results BrightonCon Lab/C Con Lab ChelmsfordLabCon CroydonLabCon LabCon Lab Con ReadingLab Lab/CLabCon LabCon Lab Lab/C St.AlbansLab Con Lab Con SurbitonCon LD WimbledonLabCon Lab Con Woking Con 1945195019511955195919641966197019741974.51979198319871992199720012005 Dr Tim Leunig Overhead 26 Counting output correctly

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Can commuter routes get faster? Improve signalling to run more trains per hour (as in 1912) Lighter trains accelerate more quickly More doors to speed boarding Tunnel mainline routes into the centre, (e.g. Waterloo – Bank – Liverpool St) – big time savings Dr Tim Leunig Overhead 27 Counting output correctly

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Why choose HST instead? Glamour? Announcing that Britain will enter the High Speed Era with the CTRL or the WCML may get better headlines than announcing 5 minutes off the time to East Croydon. Dr Tim Leunig Overhead 28 Counting output correctly

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Evening Standard The Queen re-ignited the great British love affair with the railways last night as she opened the revitalised St.Pancras station. History was made at the new St.Pancras International today when the first Eurostar train left for Brussels. Dr Tim Leunig Overhead 29 Counting output correctly

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Will it happen? Eddington talked about building what people will use Crossrail is in London (although does not seem designed to maximise output:cost ratio) Dr Tim Leunig Overhead 30 Counting output correctly

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Questions and comments?

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Dr Tim Leunig Overhead 32 The glamour of high speed trains – or why is my train to work so slow?

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