1. 2005 Updated 10/19/09 Sampling Distribution Tripthi M. Mathew, MD, MPH, MBA

2. Objectives Learning Objective To understand the topic on Sampling Distribution and its importance in different disciplines. Performance Objectives At the end of this lecture the student will be able to: Apply the basic knowledge of sampling distribution to solve problems. Interpret the results of the problems. Tripthi M. Mathew, MD, MPH, MBA

3. Types of Distribution Frequency Distribution Normal (Gaussian) Distribution Probability Distribution Poisson Distribution Binomial Distribution Sampling Distribution t distribution F distribution Tripthi M. Mathew, MD, MPH, MBA

4. What is Sampling Distribution? Sampling is defined as the process of selecting a number of observations (subjects) from all the observations (subjects) from a particular group or population*. Sampling distribution is defined as the frequency distribution of the statistic for many samples. It is the distribution of means and is also called the sampling distribution of the mean. * Used by Permission of Oxford University Press Tripthi M. Mathew, MD, MPH, MBA

5. Features of Sampling Distribution The 4 features of sampling distribution include: 1) The statistic of interest (Proportion, SD, or Mean) 2) Random selection of sample 3) Size of the random sample (very important) 4) The characteristics of the population being sampled. Tripthi M. Mathew, MD, MPH, MBA

6. Characteristics of Sampling Distribution Central Limit Theorem When random samples of size is taken from a population, the distribution of sample means will approach the normal distribution. When the Sampling distribution of the mean has sample sizes of 30 or more then it is said to be normally distributed. Tripthi M. Mathew, MD, MPH, MBA

7. Statistical Characteristics of Sampling Distribution The major statistics are: Mean Standard deviation Standard error The standard error (SE or SEM) of the sampling distribution is given by the formula: s √n Where, n - sample size s- standard deviation of the sample x – sample mean Tripthi M. Mathew, MD, MPH, MBA

8. a) SE of a proportion = √ p (1-p)/n Where, p is the sample proportion b) SE of a percentage =√ p (100-p)/n Where, p is the sample percentage Statistical Characteristics of Sampling Distribution Cont’d Tripthi M. Mathew, MD, MPH, MBA

9. Confidence Interval a) CI = p ± z α/2 √ p (1-p)/n b) CI= p ± z α/2 √ p (100-p)/n Statistical Characteristics of Sampling Distribution Cont’d Tripthi M. Mathew, MD, MPH, MBA

10. Z Score (Standard Score) Z = x - μ σ /√n Where, X is the sample mean μ is the mean of the sampling distribution σ is the SE of the sampling distribution √n Statistical Characteristics of Sampling Distribution Cont’d Tripthi M. Mathew, MD, MPH, MBA

11. Exercises An Epidemiologist studied a randomly selected group of 25 individuals (men and women) between 30- 49 years of age and finds that their mean heart rate is 70 beats per minute. Exercises are modified from examples in Dawson-Saunders, B & Trapp, RG. Basic and Clinical Biostatistics, 2nd edition, 1994. ©McGraw -Hill Companies. Tripthi M. Mathew, MD, MPH, MBA

12. How frequently will the sample of 25 individuals have a mean heart rate of 74 beats per minute or higher? or in other words What proportion of samples will have mean values of 74 beats per minute or greater, if repeated samples of 25 individuals are randomly selected from the population? Exercise # 1 Exercises are modified from examples in Dawson-Saunders, B & Trapp, RG. Basic and Clinical Biostatistics, 2nd edition, 1994. ©McGraw-Hill Companies. Tripthi M. Mathew, MD, MPH, MBA

13. Further investigation revealed that the 25 individuals appeared to have used a drug for treatment and now the epidemiologist (Epi) wants to detect the adverse effects of the drug on the heart rate. The Epidemiologist assumes that a mean heart rate in the upper 5% of the distribution will be cause for concern. Determine the value that divides the upper 5% from the lower 95% of the sampling distribution. Exercise # 2 Exercises are modified from examples in Dawson-Saunders, B & Trapp, RG. Basic and Clinical Biostatistics, 2nd edition, 1994. ©McGraw-Hill Companies. Tripthi M. Mathew, MD, MPH, MBA

14. The Use of Normal Curve to solve problems μ 95% 1 2 5% 73.29 Exercises are modified from examples in Dawson-Saunders, B & Trapp, RG. Basic and Clinical Biostatistics, 2nd edition, 1994. ©McGraw-Hill Companies. Tripthi M. Mathew, MD, MPH, MBA

15. The “disease detective” (Epi) wants to know how many patients should be included in the study to determine the drug’s effect. The Epi assumes that the mean heart rate must not rise above 72 beats per minute, 90% of the time. or in other words To include individuals in the study, what should the random sample size be so that 90% of the mean samples of this size will be 72 beats per minute or less? Exercise # 3 Exercises are modified from examples in Dawson-Saunders, B & Trapp, RG. Basic and Clinical Biostatistics, 2nd edition, 1994. ©McGraw- Hill Companies. Tripthi M. Mathew, MD, MPH, MBA

16. 1) 2.3% 2) 73.29 Solution/Answers Exercises are modified from examples in Dawson-Saunders, B & Trapp, RG. Basic and Clinical Biostatistics, 2nd edition, 1994. ©McGraw -Hill Companies. Tripthi M. Mathew, MD, MPH, MBA

17. 3) 40.96 Solution/Answers Exercises are modified from examples in Dawson-Saunders, B & Trapp, RG. Basic and Clinical Biostatistics, 2nd edition, 1994. ©McGraw - Hill Companies. Tripthi M. Mathew, MD, MPH, MBA

18. Other Types of Sampling Distribution F distribution This is a sampling distribution of the mean with an estimated standard deviation. t Distribution This is the sampling distribution of two variances (squared standard deviations). Tripthi M. Mathew, MD, MPH, MBA

19. Application of Sampling distribution The sampling distribution like the normal distribution is a descriptive model, so it is used to describe real world situations. It is very useful to make statements about the probability of specific observations occurring. Investigators/researchers/modelers use it for estimation and hypothesis testing. Tripthi M. Mathew, MD, MPH, MBA

20. References/Further Reading 1) Dawson-Saunders, B & Trapp, RG. Basic and Clinical Biostatistics, 2nd edition, 1994. McGraw - Hill Companies. 2) Last, J. A Dictionary of Epidemiology. 3rd edition,1995. Oxford University Press. 3) Wisniewski, M. Quantitative Methods For Decision Makers, 3rd edition, 2002. Pearson Education. 4) Pidd, M. Tools For Thinking. Modelling in Management Science. 2nd edition, 2003. John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Tripthi M. Mathew, MD, MPH, MBA