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Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage www.geos.ed.ac.uk/sccs Learning rates Nils Markusson.

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Presentation on theme: "Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage www.geos.ed.ac.uk/sccs Learning rates Nils Markusson."— Presentation transcript:

1 Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage Learning rates Nils Markusson

2 Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage The problem – predicting the future of CCS Demand from policy-makers (and companies?!): what technologies, when, what costs? But prediction is difficult or even impossible So, best possible guesses UK Energy Research Centre - modelling of the energy sector - many supply technologies - economists, engineers, innovation policy researchers

3 Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage A possible approach – learning rates Learning-by-doing (Grubb, 2006)

4 Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage Learning rates - equation cost 2xcap / cost cap = 1 - LR - per accumulated capacity, not time - all unknowns...

5 Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage LR and CCS Estimating future costs - we need initial cost, LR and capacities 1. Initial costs: estimates avilable 2. LR: historical analogues (11-12%, capture, environmental technology) 3. Capacities: deployment scenarios

6 Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage Example calculation Target: from 80 to /t in 2020 Cost per tonne, /t Doublings of installed capacity Literature Industry target LR 24-34%

7 Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage Some of the known problems 1. Not always any learning like this 2. Sensitive to initial cost and time 3. Learning not always smooth

8 Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage What to do next 1. Develop different scenarios - deployment, breakthroughs 2. Complement with qualitative accounts 3. Highlight policy implications

9 Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage With breakthroughs Cost per tonne, /t Doublings of installed capacity


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