4Internal / External Risks External EnvironmentThings outside of the projects direct control that may result in its failure, but can be identified and monitored via a watching brief, i.e. fire, flood, famine, pestilence, war and global economic meltdown!Internal Environment:Those that can occur as part of the project itself - something can usually be done about these
5Risk Likelihood / Impact How likely is the risk?Low, Medium, HighOr Extremely Unlikely (will happen once in a blue moon), Unlikely, Medium, Likely. Extremely Likely (it’s going to happen)
6Influence and ControlSimple list of what you can and cannot influence and control
7Risk Likelihood / Impact What would be the impact on the project?Low, Medium, HighOr Very Low (no real impact), Low, Medium, High, Very High (catastrophic)
8Constraint Risks Product risk Schedule risk Resource risk A risk that prevents you from meeting the product (project) specificationSchedule riskA risk that prevents project element from being completed on timeResource riskA risk that prevents enough or appropriate resources from being available to complete a project element
9Boston Chart High Risk Low Return High Risk High Return Low Risk
10Project Familiarity Both task and setting familiar SHOULD BE OK Task familiarSetting unfamiliarTask UnfamiliarSetting FamiliarBE WARY!
12Homework Self Study Discussion You:Reviewed your QUAD chartProduced a Stakeholder AnalysisProduced a Risk Assessment(or you should have…).Is your QUAD chart now more precise?Have you assessed all risks?Have you considered all potential stakeholders?
13Tool & Technique Work Breakdown Structures Planning the Do - The Work Plan
14Remember our Project Life Cycle Conception Phase (The Idea)Definition Phase (The Plan)Initiation Phase (The Team)PLANImplementation Phase (The Work)DOEvaluation Phase (The Wrap-up)REVIEW
15Motivation for a Work Plan Helps you to understand what needs to be doneHelps others understand what needs to be doneEnsures that a task is not missedEnsures that a task is not duplicatedProvides contingency should a key supporter be:Taken off projectLong term illResignGet run down by a no 43 bus and die
16“The Devil is in the Detail” Need enough detail for any given activity to be able to:Accurately estimate resources neededAccurately estimate the time requiredAssign the activity to someone elseToo little detail will result in poor estimatesToo much detail is a waste of planning time
17“The Devil is in the Detail” Identifying the appropriate level of detaillargely a question of experiencebest to ask an expert (i.e the person performing the activity, not someone who used to do it 5 years ago, or the manager who doesn’t do it but thinks they are an expert).
18For a New Project Identify tasks by asking others / through consultationborrowing information from similar projectsBe prepared to get it wrong and learnthis is one of the reasons why we have post-project evaluation.Even experienced project mangers get it wrong; remember the London Dome, the Wembley stadium, the London Millenium Bridge….
19The Jigsaw puzzle model Consider a jigsaw puzzle
26Your project is a jigsaw You might have a complete pictureYou might have all the piecesYou might know where to fit them and the sequence in which to fit themOr you might not….
27Tool & Technique 10 Work Breakdown Structure ELEMENTS
28So your task is to identify what level of detail you have for your puzzle. You will need to do this with your team of people.How accurately you do this could determine the success, or otherwise, of the project
29Breaking the puzzle down into manageable pieces Called a ‘work breakdown’ structureThere is a ‘bottom up approach’ and a ‘top down approach’
30Methods for Developing a Work Breakdown Structure Bottom-up approach (using Brainstorming)This is the most appropriate method for projects involving untested methods and approaches OR where team members have not performed similar projects beforeBrainstorm to generate all activities you can think of that will have to be done.Then group them into categories
31Remember the Traditional Cooked Breakfast Project?
32Group work TASK 1: Developing a Work Breakdown Structure Bottom Up ApproachBrainstorm and write any and all activities that you think need to be performed for the Proper Cooked English Breakfast (PCEB) project on post-it notes or small cards.Do not worry about overlap or level of detail at this stage.Do not discuss task wording or detailsDo not judgeWrite everything down
33Group work TASK 2: Developing a Work Breakdown Structure (Bottom-Up) Study the post-its or cards and group the activities into a few major categories with common characteristics.These will be your work assignments (elements)Can any activities within an element be grouped into a number of subtasks?Note this process is sometimes referred to as the Crawford Slip method.
34Methods for Developing a Work Breakdown Structure II Top-down approachBetter suited to projects with which you or others are familiarStart at the top level (the finished project) and systematically develop increasing levels of detail for all activities
35Group work TASK 3: Developing a Work Breakdown Structure (Top-down) Consider the finished project and work backwards.Use a top-down approach to determine any activities that might have been missedThere might not be any for a project of this size? ?
36General rule for breaking down your work No Gaps: All work for a given task must be encompassed in its sub-tasksNo Overlaps: The same work should not be included in more than one sub-task.
37Gantt ChartIf we were to cut the length of each post it note or card to scale and lay them out from start to finish then we basically have a Gantt Chart.The Gantt chart is one of the project manager’s tools for scheduling
38The Gantt Chart - example Time (s)Switch stove onBreak eggsCook sausagesFry eggsPour WaterSlice + dice saladGet cutleryLay tableSLACK - SLACK - SLACK - SLACKPlace Pot on TrayServebreakfast served
39Gantt Chart Named after its originator Henry Gantt. A Gantt chart is a bar graph which illustrates on a timeline when each activity will start, finish and end.It’s a pictorial representation of each stage of the project showing individual tasks subdivided into work units according to the length of time they will take.
40Gantt Chart - How to A graph Time on the horizontal axis Each task (preferably in sequence) is listed on the vertical axisMicrsoft office assistance available at
42Time – project timeThe total time needed to perform a group or set of activities depends on 2 things:1 DURATION – how long each activity will take,2 SEQUENCE – the order in which you perform the activities.
43Project time Note that SEQUENCE might be determined by: the project you the project managerthe customer/clientall of the above
44A question ?How long will a project consisting of 12 activities, which each take one week, take?A 1 weekB 12 weeksB1 exactly 12 weeksB2 just slightly over 12 weeksC 6 weeksD don’t know
45The answer ?A 1 week might be correct if we can do all 12 activities at the same time and have the resources to do so.B 12 weeks (exactly or just over) might be correct if we have to do all the activities in sequence.C 6 weeks might be correct if we can do activity 1&2 together, 3&4 together, 5&6 together, etc.D don’t know - correct! We don’t know as we have insufficient information at the moment.
46Tool & Technique The Network Diagram Note when people who aren’t project managers think of project management techniques they usually only think of Network diagrams and the Gantt chart.They are important tools, but, as we have seen so far, they are not the only tool.
47Tool & Technique The Network Diagram The Network diagram is a flow-chart that illustrates;Dependencies between tasksThe order in which tasks will be performed
48Network DiagramsEvent - sometimes called a milestone (e.g. “design begins”, “draft report approved”)Activity - work required to move from one event to anotherSpan time - the actual project time required to complete an activity
49Network Diagrams (aka Dependency Diagram aka Precedence Diagram) Events – take no time and consume no resources – they occur instantaneouslyActivity – takes time and consumes resourceSpan time - the actual time required to complete an activity within the project (aka duration or elapsed time)
50Span TimeBut before we can consider a Network diagram we need to know about Span timeEstimating time within a project is one of most difficult things to do
51Span TimeSpan time is actual project time – its duration.That is the time it takes to do something within the project.For example an activity which takes 1week of project time with 1 person doing it may take 3 days of project time if 2 people do it.Or it may still take 1 week as the activity may use a process using a special glue which needs 72 hours to set.
52Span time varies – typically depending on Resourcespeople,£funds,equipment,technology,environment,timesupplier delivery times,etc.
53Span time variesMany things may affect an activity’s span time – some will be under your control….and some will not.One of the project manager’s most difficult jobs is to correctly and accurately calculate/estimate an activity’s span time – always keeping an eye on reducing it if this reduces the overall project duration.
54Span time and work effort Span time is not the same as work effort.Work effort = the no. of hours it would take a person to do the activity.Example – 4 people work 5 days to complete an activity; the span time is 5 days, the work effort is 20 person days.Example – 2 people work 10 days to complete the same activity; the work effort is still 20 person days; but the span time is now 10 days.
55Span time – an exampleYou need to test run new software, you estimate this will take 24 hours on a computer. If you are only allowed access to the computer for 6 hours per day, then the span time is 4 working days.If you want to halve the span time, then doubling, or tripling, the number of people working on it would have no effect; but getting access to the computer for 12 hours per day would. The span time has now been halved to 2 working days (not necessarily 2 consecutive days).
56Span timeThe project manager needs to decide and be consistent as to whether his/her project’s span time is calculated according to actual real life working days or consecutive days.Do you include weekends, bank holidays, a 5% allowance for sick leave ??
57Working out span timeNeed to take account of actual working hours and practiceExample - An activity taking 24 hours will have a span time of 3 working days if an 9.5 hour day is worked with a 1 hour lunch break and a 15 minute break morning & afternoon with the assumption that people do nothing else other than work on the project.Or it could have a span time of 6 working days if the working day is 4 hours with no breaks.
58Working out span time It takes experience and practice. It’s easy to underestimate how long something will take.It’s easy to assume a team member will spend 100% of their time doing something – in reality this very rarely occurs.
59Other difficulties with estimating time Hofstadter's LawHofstadter's Law is a statement of the difficulty of accurately estimating the amount of time it will take to complete tasks of any substantial complexity.It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take Hofstadter's Law into account.source th aniveersary edition of Godel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid
60Other difficulties with estimating time Optimism bias - the demonstrated systematic tendency for people to be over-optimistic about the outcome of planned actions.This includes over-estimating the likelihood of positive events and under-estimating the likelihood of negative events.
61Other difficulties with estimating time The planning fallacy - the tendency to underestimate task-completion times. Lovallo and Kahneman (2003) expanded the planning fallacy from being the tendency to underestimate task-completion times to being the tendency to underestimate the time, costs, and risks of future actions and at the same time overestimate the benefits of the same actions.According to this definition, the planning fallacy results in not only time overruns, but also cost overuns and benefit shortfalls.
62Other difficulties with estimating time Unforeseen delays planning fallacyThe problem with unforeseen delays is that you can’t foresee them! When people ask for a realistic estimate how long something will take they envision everything going exactly as planned, with no unexpected delays or unforeseen catastrophes
63Possibly therefore the trick is to plan in less detail Possibly therefore the trick is to plan in less detail. Elizier Yudkowsky (Oxford University blog overcomingbias.com identifies that one way is to ask yourself broadly how long it’s taken to do something similar in the past“You'll get back an answer that sounds hideously long, and clearly reflects no understanding of the special reasons why this particular task will take less time. This answer is true. Deal with it.”
64Network Diagrams Network Diagrams (aka Dependency Diagram) A network diagram in activity-in-the-box format is sometimes called a Precedence Diagram
65Tool & Technique 12 Activity-in-the-Box Network or Precedence Diagrams Activity 1 t1 = 5Activity 2 t2 = 1ENDSTARTActivity 3 t3 = 1Activity 4 t4 = 3Activity 5t5 = 2All inputs to an activity box must have been completed before it can begin.E.g. Activity 1 and 4 must be completed before 5 can commence. Total minimum time is 7
66RememberEvents – take no time and consume no resources – they occur instantaneouslyActivity – takes time and consumes resourceSpan time - the actual time required to complete an activity within the project (aka duration or elapsed time)
67EXAMPLE Activities & Events An activityTime T=5An EventTime T= 0(Remember, events take no time)An Activity and an eventTime T= 5Write reportFinished reportapprovedHand infinished report
68The 2 rules of network diagrams Rule 1 After you finish an activity or reach an event you can proceed to the next activity or event as indicated by the arrow(s) leaving that activity or event.Rule 2 To be able to start an activity or reach an event you must complete all activities and reach all events from which arrows entering that activity or event emanate.
69Group work TASK 4: Network Diagram Consider one of the tasks, (e.g. “Make Tea” in our breakfast project).Check to see if you have identified all sub-tasksPlace post it notes on large sheet and attempt to create a network diagramAssign estimates of the time required to perform each sub-task
70Example Activity-in-the-Box Network Diagram (Making the Tea) Re-Boil10s3s180s5s15s20sSTARTFill KettleSwitch Kettle OnBoil Water (Initial)Scold PotPut Tea-bag InPour WaterPlace Pot On TrayEND TEA SERVEDPut Milk In JugPut Sugar In BowlGet TrayPut Milk, Sugar, Cup & Saucer on TrayServe
71Critical Path Analysis ! The next area we will look at – Critical Path Analysis and Slack time is often considered by people to be the most difficult part of project management.It is logical, but appears difficult at first.If you use Microsoft project software then it will ‘do’ all the following for you. But it’s important to know how to do it so that you can understand what the software is actually doing.
72Some definitionsCritical Path – a sequence of activities in your project that takes the longest time to complete.Slack Time – the maximum amount of time that you can delay an activity and still finish your project on time.Non Critical Path – a sequence of activities that you can delay by some amount & still finish you project in the shortest possible time.
73Tool and Technique Critical Path Analysis Critical Path Analysis is the process of identifying the sequence of activities in your network diagram that takes the longest time to complete.The length of the critical path defines how long your project will take to complete. That is then the SHORTEST possible time your project will take.
74Example of a Network Diagram (Activity in the box or Precedence) Activity 1 T = 5Activity 2 T = 1ENDT=7STARTT=0Activity 3 T = 1Activity 4 T = 3Activity 5T = 2Critical Path is red. Time T is in weeks
75The Forward Pass A start-to-finish analysis Determining critical paths, non critical paths, & earliest start and finish datesUsing ‘the forward pass’a start-to-finish analysis Refer to the handout of the Network diagram
76The 2 rules of Network diagrams… Rule 1 After you finish an activity or reach an event you can proceed to the next activity or event as indicated by the arrow(s) leaving that activity or event.Rule 2 To be able to start an activity or reach an event you must complete all activities and reach all events from which arrows entering that activity or event emanate.
77Determining critical paths, non critical paths, and earliest start and finish dates. Consider the diagram’s upper path – activities 1 & 2Rule 1 says you can start on activity 1 the moment the project starts.So the earliest you can finish activity 1 is the end of week 5 (you add it’s span time of 5 to it’s earliest start time of 0, to arrive at week 5).Rule 2 says the earliest you can start activity 2 is the beginning of week 6 (as the arrow from activity 1 is the only 1 entering activity 2).So the earliest you can finish activity 2 is the end of week 6.
78The Forward Pass A start-to-finish analysis Determining critical paths, non critical paths, and earliest start and finish dates.Consider the diagram’s lower path – activities 3, 4, 5.The earliest you can start activity 3 is the moment the project starts.The earliest you can finish activity 3 is the end of week 1.The earliest you can start activity 4 is the beginning of week 2.The earliest you can finish activity 4 is the end of week 4.BUT, according to rule 2, the two arrows entering activity 5 mean that you cannot start activity 5 until BOTH activities 1 & 4 are finished. Even though you can finish 4 by end of week 4, you cannot finish 1 until end of week 5. SO the earliest you can start 5 is the beginning of week 6.
79A guideline This illustrates a general guideline: If 2 or more activities lead to the same activity, then the earliest date which you can start that activity is equal to the latest of the earliest finish dates for these 2 or more activities.
80The Forward Pass Determining critical paths, non critical paths, and earliest start and finish dates Earliest finish date for 4 is week 4.Earliest finish date for 1 is week 5.SO, the earliest you can start 5 is beginning of week 6.Earliest you can finish 5 is end of week 7.Earliest you can finish 2 is end of week 6.SO, the earliest you can finish the entire project & reach the event ‘end’ is the end of week 7.
81What have we just found out? We now know that: The length of the project is 7 weeks – the shortest time in which it can be completed.There is one critical path, it takes 7 weeks, it includes: the event ‘start’, activity 1, activity 5, the event ‘end’.Activities 2, 3, 4 are not critical paths.
82Back to our example of a Precedence Network Diagram Activity 1 T = 5Activity 2 T = 1ENDT=7STARTT=0Activity 3 T = 1Activity 4 T = 3Activity 5T = 2Critical Path is red. Time T is in weeks
83The backward pass A finish-to-start analysis Determining slack times and earliest start and finish datesUsing ‘the backward pass’a finish-to-start analysis
84The Backward Pass A finish-to-start analysis Determining slack times and earliest start and finish datesWe know from our start-to-finish or forward pass analysis that it takes 7 weeks to reach the event ‘end’.BUT, rule 2 ( To be able to start an activity or reach an event you must complete all activities and reach all events from which arrows entering that activity or event emanate).says that we cannot reach the event ‘end’ until both activities 2 & 5 are completed.SO, if we want to finish by the end of week 7, the latest we can finish 2 & 5 is the end of week 7.
85The Backward Pass A finish-to-start analysis Determining slack times and earliest start and finish datesConsider the diagram’s lower path – activities 3, 4, 5.You must start 5 by the beginning of week 6, at the latest, if you want to finish by end of week 7.Rule 2 says you can’t start 5 until you finish 1 & 4. SO, you must finish 1 & 4 by the beginning of week 6 at the latest. MEANING, you must start 4 by the beginning of week 3.You must finish 3 before you can start 4, THEREFORE you must finish 3 by the end of week 2,which means that you must start 3 by the end of week 2.
86Now consider the diagram’s upper path. The Backward Pass A finish-to-start analysis Determining slack times and earliest start and finish datesNow consider the diagram’s upper path.You must start activity 2 by the beginning of week 7.You cannot start 2 until you finish activity 1. SO, you must finish 1 by the end of week 6.You must finish 1 by end of week 5 in order to start activity 5 at the beginning of week 6, and by the end of week 6 to allow work on activity 2 to start at the beginning of week 7. Finishing activity 1 by end of week 5 will satisfy both requirements.
87Another guideline This illustrates another general guideline If two or more arrows leave from the same event or activity, the latest date by which you must finish the activity, or reach the event, is the earliest of the latest dates by which you must start the activities or reach the events to which these arrows lead.
88Confused….Don’t worry; most people find it confusing at first. It takes a little time for it to fully sink in.Spend time after this session reviewing the handouts to help you understand the process.
90Tool & Technique 14 Critical Path Analysis (for Making the Tea) Re-Boil10s3s180s5s15s20sSTARTFill KettleSwitch Kettle OnBoil Water (Initial)Scold PotPut Tea-bag InPour WaterPlace Pot On TrayEND TEA SERVEDPut Milk In JugPut Sugar In BowlGet TrayPut Milk, Sugar, Cup & Saucer on TrayServeCritical PathTOTAL TIME = TIME ON CRITICAL PATH = 253 secs
91Group work TASK 5: Network Diagram - Identifying the Critical Path Can you identify the critical path in your network diagram?Highlight it in redCalculate the time-span of the critical pathDo you have any slack in your project?Slack time – the maximum amount of time that you can delay an activity and still finish your project in the shortest possible time
92But what if we alter one (or more) of the factors? Essentially this is why Network diagrams are essential for project management. They allow us to change one of the variables and see what affect it has on the whole project.Microsoft Project software does it all for you at the press of a button
93But what if we alter one (or more) of the factors? We can alter time the time constraint.
94Change in Time constraint The hotel manager has decided that the tea must be made more rapidly.How can this be done?A super-kettle is purchased that can boil water in 10 seconds!
95Tool & Technique 14 Critical Path Analysis (for Making the Tea) Re-Boil10s3s180s5s15s20sSTARTFill KettleSwitch Kettle OnBoil Water (Initial)Scold PotPut Tea-bag InPour WaterPlace Pot On TrayEND TEA SERVEDPut Milk In JugPut Sugar In BowlGet TrayPut Milk, Sugar, Cup & Saucer on TrayServeCritical PathTOTAL TIME = TIME ON CRITICAL PATH = 253 secs
96Effect of Resource Changes New Technology! Re-Boil10s3s5s1s15s20sSTARTFill KettleSwitch Kettle OnBoil Water (Initial)Scold PotPut Tea-bag InPour WaterPlace Pot On TrayEND TEA SERVEDPut Milk In JugPut Sugar In BowlGet TrayPut Milk, Sugar, Cup & Saucer on TrayServeResource ChangeTOTAL TIME = TIME ON CRITICAL PATH = 83 secsStrictly speaking this would not work with a single person due to the overlap in activitiesCritical Path
97Gantt Chart - 2 Super Kettle Strictly speaking this would not work with a single person due to the overlap in activities
98Cost-Benefit The time saved was 170 seconds However, the new super-kettle set you back a princely £200Is the investment worth it to improve on changes in time constraint?If those 170 seconds saved represented an early finish bonus worth £300 then the investment would be worth it.And once you have bought it it can be used over and over again.
99But what if we alter one (or more) of the factors? We can take on another member of staff.
100Effect of Resource Changes super kettle! Re-Boil10s3s5s1s15s20sSTARTFill KettleSwitch Kettle OnBoil Water (Initial)Scold PotPut Tea-bag InPour WaterPlace Pot On TrayEND TEA SERVEDPut Milk In JugPut Sugar In BowlGet TrayPut Milk, Sugar, Cup & Saucer on TrayServeResource ChangeTOTAL TIME = TIME ON CRITICAL PATH = 83 secsCritical Path
101Effect of Resource Changes Another pair of hands and super kettle! Re-Boil10s3s5s1s15s20sSTARTFill KettleSwitch Kettle OnBoil Water (Initial)Scold PotPut Tea-bag InPour WaterPlace Pot On TrayEND TEA SERVEDPut Milk In JugPut Sugar In BowlGet TrayPut Milk, Sugar, Cup & Saucer on TrayServePerson ATOTAL TIME = TIME ON CRITICAL PATH = 78 secs = only 5s savedPerson BCritical Path
102Cost vs Benefit ?So it’s probably not worth employing another member of staff once we have bought our super kettle if we only save a further 5 seconds
104What Have We Done? Reviewed risk analysis Introduced work breakdown structures and methods for their generationhad a go at the bottom-up approachDescribed network diagramsactivity-in-box diagramscritical paths, the forward pass, the backward passeffects of resource changesGantt chartsSlack time
105Homework Self study1 Review your Stakeholder Analysis, ask for other people’s opinions and feedback. Keep a copy of the original and then produce a modified version which is more accurate.2 Review and amend if required your Risk Analysis or produce one using the advanced risk analysis grid. Keep a copy of the original.3 Produce a Network diagram and/or a Gantt chart for either the whole project, or a section of it.Read through today’s handouts. Check you understand it.