1. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 2002 Freight Analysis Framework 2 T. Randall (Randy) Curlee, Ph.D. Center for Transportation Analysis Talking Freight Seminar February 15, 2006

2. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY The ORNL FAF Team  T. Randall Curlee, Ph.D, Economics  Frank Southworth, Ph.D., Geography  Bruce Peterson, M.S., Geography  Richard Schmoyer, Ph.D., Statistics  David Vogt, Ph.D., Economics  Gbadebo Oladosu, Ph.D., Economics  Ingrid Busch, Ph.D., Operations Research  S. M. Chin, Ph.D., Civil Engineering  Ho-Ling Hwang, Ph.D., Statistics  Maxine Perry, M.S., Geography

3. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY Enhanced CFS Flows Matrix CFS Out-of-Scope Sectors Final FAF 2 Flows Table CFS Table 17 CFS Alternatives: Railcar Waybills Waterborne Commerce Log Linear Model Iterative Proportional Fitting “True Zero” Cells from Census FAF 2 OD Methodology

4. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY Final FAF 2 Flows Table FAF2 OD Methodology FAF 2 Dimensions *114 origins and destinations as defined and used in the 2002 Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) plus 17 additional international gateways and 7 international regions *Commodities defined at the 2-digit SCTG (Standard Classification of Transported Goods) level *Modes defined as in the 2002 CFS – i.e. 11 separate modes, multimodal combinations, and unknown modes— but reported for only 7 aggregated modes in FAF *Two four-dimensional matrices with approximately 12 million cells

5. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY Notes: Metropolitan areas shown in green, gateways shown in purple. Not shown: Alaska (3), Honolulu (26), Hawaii (27), and the Anchorage Gateway (115) 138 FAF Regions

6. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY FAF 2 Commodities  SCTG - Commodity Code   CodeCommodity Class  01Live animals and live fish  02Cereal grains  03Other agricultural products  04Animal feed and products of animal origin, n.e.c.  05Meat, fish, seafood, and their preparations  06Milled grain products and preparations, and bakery products  07Other prepared foodstuffs and fats and oils  08Alcoholic beverages  09Tobacco products  10Monumental or building stone  11Natural sands  12Gravel and crushed stone  13Nonmetallic minerals n.e.c.  14Metallic ores and concentrates  15Coal  16Crude Petroleum  17Gasoline and aviation turbine fuel  18Fuel oils  19Coal and petroleum products, n.e.c.  20Basic chemicals  21Pharmaceutical products  22Fertilizers  23Chemical products and preparations, n.e.c.  24Plastics and rubber  25Logs and other wood in the rough  26Wood products  27Pulp, newsprint, paper, and paperboard  28Paper or paperboard articles  29Printed products  30Textiles, leather, and articles of textiles or leather  31Nonmetallic mineral products  32Base metal in primary or semi-finished forms and in finished basic shapes  33Articles of base metal  34Machinery  35Electronic and other electrical equipment and components and office equipment  36Motorized and other vehicles (including parts)  37Transportation equipment, n.e.c.  38Precision instruments and apparatus  39Furniture, mattresses and mattress supports, lamps, lighting fittings, and...  40Miscellaneous manufactured products  41Waste and scrap  43Mixed freight  —Commodity unknown

7. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY FAF 2 Modes  Truck  Rail  Water  Air, Air & Truck  Truck and Rail  Other Intermodal  Pipeline & Unknown

8. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY Enhanced CFS Flows Matrix CFS Out-of-Scope Sectors Final FAF 2 Flows Table CFS Table 17 CFS Alternatives: Railcar Waybills Waterborne Commerce Log Linear Model Iterative Proportional Fitting “True Zero” Cells from Census FAF 2 OD Methodology

9. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY CFS Table 17 FAF 2 OD Methodology 4 dimensional matrix at state level with required mode and commodity detail A very large and very sparse multi-dimensional table Sparsely filled – only about 5% of cells filled * Coefficient of variation of greater than 50% *Disclosure rules *No observations

10. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY Enhanced CFS Flows Matrix CFS Out-of-Scope Sectors Final FAF 2 Flows Table CFS Table 17 CFS Alternatives: Railcar Waybills Waterborne Commerce Log Linear Model Iterative Proportional Fitting “True Zero” Cells from Census FAF 2 OD Methodology

11. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY CFS Table 17 “True Zero” Cells from Census FAF 2 OD Methodology Census identified all missing cells for which there were no observations Those cells assumed to be “true zeros” and constrained to be so Remaining missing cells are suppressed and must be estimated

12. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY Enhanced CFS Flows Matrix CFS Out-of-Scope Sectors Final FAF 2 Flows Table CFS Table 17 CFS Alternatives: Railcar Waybills Waterborne Commerce Log Linear Model Iterative Proportional Fitting “True Zero” Cells from Census FAF 2 OD Methodology

13. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY CFS Table 17 CFS Alternatives: Railcar Waybills Waterborne Commerce Log Linear Model FAF 2 OD Methodology Identifies relationships at 7 dimensional level *Modes *Commodities *Origins *Destinations *Tons, Dollars *Distance Bucket *CFS, Alternative data source 127 terms in fully saturated model Alternative data converted to SCTG

14. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY Enhanced CFS Flows Matrix CFS Out-of-Scope Sectors Final FAF 2 Flows Table CFS Table 17 CFS Alternatives: Railcar Waybills Waterborne Commerce Log Linear Model Iterative Proportional Fitting “True Zero” Cells from Census FAF 2 OD Methodology

15. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY CFS Table 17 Iterative Proportional Fitting FAF 2 OD Methodology IPF constrains margins to be consistent with CFS totals Cells with values in Table 17 constrained to remain unchanged

16. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY Enhanced CFS Flows Matrix CFS Out-of-Scope Sectors Final FAF 2 Flows Table CFS Table 17 CFS Alternatives: Railcar Waybills Waterborne Commerce Log Linear Model Iterative Proportional Fitting “True Zero” Cells from Census FAF 2 OD Methodology

17. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY Enhanced CFS Flows Matrix CFS Table 17 FAF 2 OD Methodology Enhanced CFS Flows Matrix is fully populated at required 4 dimensional level Does not include flows that are out-of-scope to the CFS or flows that are generally acknowledged to be undercounted in the CFS

18. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY Enhanced CFS Flows Matrix CFS Out-of-Scope Sectors Final FAF 2 Flows Table CFS Table 17 CFS Alternatives: Railcar Waybills Waterborne Commerce Log Linear Model Iterative Proportional Fitting “True Zero” Cells from Census FAF 2 OD Methodology

19. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY Enhanced CFS Flows Matrix CFS Out-of-Scope Sectors FAF 2 OD Methodology 15 special studies to estimate Out-of-Scopes and Undercounts (with MacroSys) Farm Based Movements Fisheries Crude Petroleum Natural Gas Municipal Solid Waste

20. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY Enhanced CFS Flows Matrix CFS Out-of-Scope Sectors FAF 2 OD Methodology ORNL disaggregated all Out-of-Scopes and Undercounts to the required FAF regional level Methodologies specialized to specific flows

21. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY Enhanced CFS Flows Matrix CFS Out-of-Scope Sectors Final FAF 2 Flows Table CFS Table 17 CFS Alternatives: Railcar Waybills Waterborne Commerce Log Linear Model Iterative Proportional Fitting “True Zero” Cells from Census FAF 2 OD Methodology

22. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY Enhanced CFS Flows Matrix CFS Out-of-Scope Sectors Final FAF 2 Flows Table FAF 2 OD Methodology Out-of-Scope Matrix added to Enhanced CFS Flows Matrix Straightforward both conceptually and mechanically

23. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY Enhanced CFS Flows Matrix CFS Out-of-Scope Sectors Final FAF 2 Flows Table CFS Table 17 CFS Alternatives: Railcar Waybills Waterborne Commerce Log Linear Model Iterative Proportional Fitting “True Zero” Cells from Census FAF 2 OD Methodology We thus arrive at the Final FAF 2 Flows Table

24. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY Enhanced CFS Flows Matrix CFS Out-of-Scope Sectors Final FAF 2 Flows Table CFS Table 17 CFS Alternatives: Railcar Waybills Waterborne Commerce Log Linear Model Iterative Proportional Fitting “True Zero” Cells from Census FAF 2 OD Methodology Questions??