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**Probability How likely is an event to occur?**

What are the chances of that happening??!!

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Lesson objectives: To understand the terms ‘equal chance’ and ‘outcome’ when thinking about probability. To complete a maths investigation involving tossing a coin and rolling a dice! - to test the ‘equal chance’ theory!

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**Mathematical Vocabulary**

We can describe the probability or chance of an event happening by saying: It is IMPOSSIBLE. It is UNLIKELY. It is LIKELY. It is CERTAIN.

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**Some events have an equal chance of happening or not happening**

Some events have an equal chance of happening or not happening. Can you think of any?

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We discussed these: If you toss a coin you have an equal chance of getting a head or a tail. Heads or tails are the ‘outcomes’. If a baby is born it has an equal chance of being a boy or a girl. Boy or girl are the ‘outcomes’. If you roll a dice you have an equal chance of getting the number 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6! These scores are the ‘outcomes’.

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**Today’s task: We are going to carry out a maths investigation.**

We are going to investigate whether we have an equal number of heads and tails when we toss a coin 30 times. We will also investigate whether we get an equal number of 1s, 2s, 3s, 4, 5s and 6s when we roll a dice 30 times. We will record our findings.

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**What do you think we will find out?**

Perhaps we will have 15 heads and 15 tails when we toss our coin 30 times?? Perhaps we will have each number on the dice 5 times. (five scores of 1, five scores of 2 etc.) It’s up to you to find out!!!!

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**Did we achieve out learning objectives today?**

We understand what is meant by the terms ‘equal chance’ and ‘outcomes’. We have carried out an investigation into ‘equal chance’. We have recorded our findings.

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Things to think about! If we rolled 2 coins what possible outcomes could we get? If we rolled more than 1 dice what possible outcomes could we get? What would our chances of getting 2 heads or a 6 be like then?!!!

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