1. Reported emissions for models Perspectives from MACC & MACC-II projects, and the use of the LOTOS-EUROS AQ model Jeroen Kuenen, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Magdalena Jozwicka, Antoon Visschedijk Total NMVOC, 2009

2. Outline Introduction Reported emissions for modellers Other issues Conclusions TNO_MACC-II in a nutshell May 13, 2013 Jeroen Kuenen Reported emissions for models

3. What do emission inventories offer? Procedural process Follow the Guidelines Specifically set number of sources Aim to use the best science Annually we report again emissions for all years from the start of the period Methods change over time New numbers every year for all years in the past May 13, 2013 Jeroen Kuenen Reported emissions for models

4. What do modellers need? Modellers need emissions, but more than just “inventories” They need (high resolution) spatially distributed emissions They need temporally distributed emissions They need all sources, so not only the sources covered by reporting requirements (including non-anthropogenic sources) Biogenic and soil emissions Resuspension, road dust But above all, they need a fully consistent dataset accross the whole domain! May 13, 2013 Jeroen Kuenen Reported emissions for models

5. Officially reported emissions of PM10 (kt) May 13, 2013 Jeroen Kuenen Reported emissions for models Thanks to CEIP for making all this available!!!

6. Reported emission trends A consistent emission inventory in space and time is key to modellers, as they aim to understand the spatial/temporal patterns Trends in reported emissions are not always understandable May 13, 2013 Jeroen Kuenen Reported emissions for models

7. Country-to-country variations for NOX May 13, 2013 Jeroen Kuenen Reported emissions for models

8. Similar discrepancies for PM May 13, 2013 Jeroen Kuenen Reported emissions for models

9. Also spatial consistency is very important In some cases, the average “emission density” at the border changes quite a lot May 13, 2013 Jeroen Kuenen Reported emissions for models Source: reported emissions to CLRTAP (EEA website)

10. But there is more where we have work to do... Work together between inventory people and modellers to identify missing or wrong sources Sources are not covered by EIs can be very important for modellers (e.g. resuspension; road dust) VOC/PM composition; condensable organics are a candidate to add additional PM emissions (more in Expert Panel on Tuesday) International shipping Open discussion of unknowns (e.g. NMVOCs from agriculture) Bring in new pollutants where relevant, especially the composition of PM as there is a strong connection to climate change Black carbon now being introduced May 13, 2013 Jeroen Kuenen Reported emissions for models

11. Elemental carbon emission map for 2005 May 13, 2013 Jeroen Kuenen Reported emissions for models

12. But there is more where we have work to do... Ensuring a consistent spatial distribution accross countries Covering major point sources in all countries (connection to E- PRTR?) Using proxies to distribute area sources, in a consistent way Work together with the modelling community to improve time profiles Improve the default profiles, more sectoral or region specific issues Use actual data instead of default profiles, e.g. meteorology May 13, 2013 Jeroen Kuenen Reported emissions for models

13. May 13, 2013 Time profiles applied to anthropogenic emissions Jeroen Kuenen Reported emissions for models

14. Example of time profiles for power plants May 13, 2013 Jeroen Kuenen Reported emissions for models

15. Conclusions and recommendations Both modellers and inventory compilers need to understand each other Challenges ahead in terms of: Consistency of emission estimates in both space and time Improving the spatial and temporal emission patterns New sources and new pollutants A good dialogue between inventory compilers and modellers is key to make progress May 13, 2013 Jeroen Kuenen Reported emissions for models

16. TNO-MACC_II inventory Gridded emission inventory for 2003-2009 for UNECE Europe, used by many modelling groups in Europe for main air pollutants Inventory is based on: Reported data where possible Alternative data (e.g. GAINS emissions or own bottom-up estimates) where needed All emissions (dis-)aggregated to 77 different source categories Spatially distributed using general methodology for all countries Use of annual E-PRTR data for distribution of PS emissions for selected sources, countries and pollutants May 13, 2013 Jeroen Kuenen Reported emissions for models

17. May 13, 2013 Jeroen Kuenen Reported emissions for models Example: NOx total for 2009

18. TNO-MACC_II use? Interested in the TNO_MACC-II data? Possible to use these for comparison to other estimates etc. Please contact Jeroen.Kuenen@tno.nl Hugo.Deniervandergon@tno.nl May 13, 2013 Jeroen Kuenen Reported emissions for models