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Growth, Trade Openness and Remittances: Lessons for Developing Countries Muhammad Tariq Majeed, PhD Student University of Glasgow, UK.

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Presentation on theme: "Growth, Trade Openness and Remittances: Lessons for Developing Countries Muhammad Tariq Majeed, PhD Student University of Glasgow, UK."— Presentation transcript:

1 Growth, Trade Openness and Remittances: Lessons for Developing Countries Muhammad Tariq Majeed, PhD Student University of Glasgow, UK. 1. Introduction Romer (1989), Alesina et al. (2000), and Bond et al. (2005) argue that openness to trade extend market size that allows countries to better capture economies of scale. A high degree of foreign competition puts the pressure on governments to commit to reform programs (Sachs and Warner, 1995). Some theoretical studies, on the other hand, suggest a negative impact of increased trade on economic growth. If some economies specialize in those sectors where comparative disadvantage holds then increased trade can hamper long run economic growth (Grossman and Helpman, 1990, 1991). Similarly, Redding (1999) points out that trade openness might contribute adversely to long-run growth, if an economy specializes in those sectors where dynamic comparative disadvantages hold. Trade might contribute negatively in long-run growth, if economies specialize in those sectors where learning by doing and innovation opportunities have largely exhausted (Lucas, 1988). In such type of economies protection in selected sectors can foster long term economic growth. 2. Research Questions (1) Does the relationship between trade and growth depends on income inequality? (2) What is the impact of international remittances on economic growth? (3) How does the trade-growth relationship depend on remittances?, Where average growth rate of per capita GDP at 1993 prices & PPP adjusted, g is a measure of inequality in the previous period; x represents a set of control variables other than lagged income, op is a measure of openness, v i is a country specific unobservable effect, and u t is a time specific factor and is an i.i.d. error term. 3. Model. 4. Data and Estimation Procedure Table 2: Parameter Estimates for Economic Growth, Trade and Remittances 6. Conclusion This study finds out positive relationship between trade and growth in both short run as well as long run. However, this relationship is substantially influenced by the domestic context in terms of prevalence of high income inequalities. The study identifies high income inequalities in developing countries as the likely reason for a strong negative relationship between openness to trade and economic growth. Finally, the study shows that remittances play a negative and significant role in impacting economic growth. The data for the study has been taken from World Development Indicators (2009), International Financial Statistics (2009) and UNDP. The sample includes 65 developing countries over the period I have used OLS, Fixed Effects, Random Effects and GMM estimator for estimation of growth equations. 4.1 Descriptive Statistic of Variables 5. Results Table 1:Parameter Estimates for Economic Growth, Trade and Income Inequality. VariablesOLSF ER E GMM Initial Inequality0.07 (2.32)** 0.16 (1.99)** 0.14 (3.13)* 0.14 (2.99) 0.76 (6.69)* Initial Income-0.83 (-4.27)* (-4.06)* (-5.87)* (-2.99)* (-6.47)* Investment0.26 (9.81)* 0.29 (5.91)* (5.64)* (5.09)* 0.18 (3.42)* Inflation (-7.89)* (-3.48)* (-5.90)* (-5.49)* (-3.06)* Education0.038 (4.72)* (2.33)* (3.97)* 0.07 (4.13)* (2.02)* Openness0.016 (0.99) 0.06 (1.56) 0.05 (2.12)* 0.05 (2.16)** 0.38 (6.17)* Inequality* Openness (-2.18)* (-1.18) (-2.65)* (-2.74)* (-5.39)* HFI0.29 (0.94) (0.44) 1.53 (2.52)* R-squared Observations330 Countries65 In order to estimate the links between inequality and growth in the data, this study follows a standard empirical growth equation: VariablesDependent Variable: Economic Growth Initial Inequality0.05 (2.36)* 0.05 (2.37)* 0.04 (2.05)* 0.11 (3.11)* 0.09 (2.92)* Initial Income-1.82 (-5.79)* (-5.51)* (-4.87)* (-5.27)* (-5.31)* Remittances-.09 (-2.90)* (-3.90)* (-3.06)* -.06 (-2.22)* -.06 (-2.38)* Investment0.29 (8.24)* 0.25 (7.77)* 0.27 (8.02)* 0.27 (7.98)* 0.26 (8.10)* Inflation-.03 (-5.07)* -.04 (-5.77)* (-5.48)* -.03 (-4.53)* Education0.06 (5.11)* 0.06 (5.37)* 0.06 (5.48)* 0.06 (5.31)* 0.06 (4.49)* Openness-.01 (-1.76)*** (1.89)*** 0.04 (2.46)* Inequality* Openness (-2.76)* (-3.14)* Government-0.09 (-4.16)* F-Stat22.47 (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) R-squared Observations265 Countries65 GrowthInequalityInvestmentInflationEducationOpenness Mean Median Maximum Minimum Std. Dev Observations261 Countries65 Equation two includes an interactive term of income inequality and trade openness to test the importance and role of initial inequality in shaping the trade-growth relationship.


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