1. National Law Enforcement and Corrections Technology Center - West Combating Terrorism: Intelligence Preparation for Operations Matt Begert begert@law-west.org 888-548-1618

2. National Law Enforcement and Corrections Technology Center - West Overview The Challenge of Post-Modern World Conflict Intelligence Preparation for Operations –What –Why –Value Summary, Conclusions and Questions

3. National Law Enforcement and Corrections Technology Center - West Preparing for 4th Generation War This is the Post-Modern World Post-Modern Thinking: Blurring of Crime and War Requirements for Combating Terrorism –Offense –Defense –Intelligence Preparation for Operations –Technology Adaptation

4. National Law Enforcement and Corrections Technology Center - West Intelligence Preparation for Operations Use the Acronym IPO This is Not Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (Classic Military Definition) Basis for the Description of IPO –Two Concepts of War –Entrepreneurial Theory of Operations –Straightforward Method of Decision-Making

5. National Law Enforcement and Corrections Technology Center - West Concepts of War and Conflict Clausewitz –War is the “…continuation of policy by other means.” –Classic Modern Definition and Understanding –Three Levels of Activity Tactical Operational Strategic

6. National Law Enforcement and Corrections Technology Center - West Concepts of War and Conflict Sun Tzu: The Art of War –2000 years old –Enduring Concepts Win without fighting Importance of Terrain Importance of Intelligence and Spies We Tend to Term it “Unconventional.”

7. National Law Enforcement and Corrections Technology Center - West Entrepreneurial Operations Modern Organization is Hierarchical –Governmental Institutions Built on Hierarchies –Post WWII Big Business Model –Stovepipes, Rice Bowls, Information Hoarding Post-Modern Organization is Networked –Faster –Collaborative –Less Restrictive

8. National Law Enforcement and Corrections Technology Center - West Decision Making OODA Loop –Observe>>>Orient>>>Decide>>>Act –Colonel John Boyd, USAF “40-Second Boyd” –Derived from Aerial Combat –Used to Develop the F-15 and F-16 –Easily Described but Actually Complex

9. National Law Enforcement and Corrections Technology Center - West IPO for Post-Modern Conflict Concept of Readiness –Preparation of the Operational Area Generally Disregard Political Boundaries –Observation and Assessment Recognize Excursions from Normal Activity There are Two Types of Intelligence!!! –Analysis Identify Indicators and Warnings Course of Action (COA) Development

10. National Law Enforcement and Corrections Technology Center - West Preparation of Op Area METT+T = Classic Military Approach IPO is More Complex –Terrain Urban, Population Density and Activity, Vertical Development, Internal Volume, Microclimates, Social, Political and Media Influence –Enemy Asymmetrical, Leverages Stealth and Surprise, Unrestricted by Social/Legal Constraints

11. National Law Enforcement and Corrections Technology Center - West Op Area Prep Our Objectives –Do Not Engage Force-on-Force –Mitigate OPFOR Advantage of Stealth and Surprise –Dissuade Through Certainty of OPFOR Failure –If Not, Interrupt and Deny Enemy Intent –Any Spoiling of Intent is a Success –Define and Implement Active Defense

12. National Law Enforcement and Corrections Technology Center - West Tenets of An Active Defense Know the Terrain Know the Enemy Employ Operational Art –Create An Operational Network Multifunctional/Multidisciplinary –Rehearsal (Playbooks and Target Folders) –Thereby Speed OODA Loop

13. National Law Enforcement and Corrections Technology Center - West Why IPO? Match Asymmetry with Asymmetry –Force-on-Force Won’t Happen Network vs Network –Eliminate Constraints of Hierarchy/Political Boundary Make the OODA Loop Competitive in Speed Combine Intel/Criminal Intel Proficiency of Operational Art

14. National Law Enforcement and Corrections Technology Center - West Value of IPO Capability to Identify Enemy Intent Deny Stealth Deny Surprise Gain/Maintain the Advantage –Rehearsal –Intel Analysis –Advanced Operational Concepts –Derive Advanced Enabling Technologies

15. National Law Enforcement and Corrections Technology Center - West Summary and Conclusions Nation-State Use of Force Model in Decline –Dominant since Peace of Westphalia, 1648 The Threat is Asymmetric Force-on-Force Model in Post-Modern World Does Not Work Networks+Asymmetry+Active Defense=Force Multipliers for the Post-Modern World

16. National Law Enforcement and Corrections Technology Center - West References Non-State Threats and Future Wars, Dr. Robert J. Bunker, editor, Frank Cass Company, Ltd., 2003, London, Part 3, Counter Op-For Strategies, Begert, Matt and Lindsay, Dan, Intelligence Preparations for Operations, ISBN 07146 8308 A Discourse on Winning and Losing, Boyd, Colonel John The Art of War, Tzu, Sun, Cleary, Thomas, translator, 1988, Shambhala Publications, Boston On War, Clausewitz, Carl Von, Howard, Michael and Paret, Peter, editors, 1976, Princeton University Press POC: Matt Begert begert@law-west.org 888-548-1618begert@law-west.org