1. Kevin Ralston PhD Student University of Stirling

2. Fertility in Scotland Duration (hazard) until First Birth Total Fertility Rate, Scotland, 1951-2006 www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/files1/stats/annual-report2006 KR 26/08/09

3. Why fertility? Recently there has been academic and political concern about the fall to below replacement fertility levels across many counties. e.g. the ESRC and Scottish Government funded a Demography Research Programme http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Research/by-topic/public-services- and-gvt/Demography-Research-Prog

4. Why Scotland?... Whas like us? 2002 was a year of historically low fertility for Scotland, things were looking bad! Scotland was the only country in Europe to be undergoing a natural decline in population and was projected to fall below 5million inhabitants. Despite the this interest there has still been relatively little research in the field. Key centres for research have been St Andrews University, the CRFR (Centre for Research on Families and Relationships) and in conjunction with the General Registrars Office for Scotland. Total Fertility Rate, Scotland, 1951-2006 www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/files1/stats/annual- report2006

5. The importance of geography? Studies combining academics and researchers from these institutions have found significant geographical effects related to childbearing. For instance in looking at the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey: Family Module, Boyle et al. found that childbearing expectations among childless women apparently varied geographically even when modelling individual level factors. Also the Registrar Generals Annual Report for 2002 argued that different demographic regimes exist within Scotland -see below- (GROS Report 2002)

6. City CoresStandardised Births per 1000 population, 2001- 2005 Age Specific Fertility Rate per 1000 population, age 30-34, 2001-2005 Edinburgh8.682 Aberdeen9.084 Dundee9.871 Glasgow9.574 Scotland10.487 Commuter BeltsStandardised Births per 1000 population, 2001- 2005 Age Specific Fertility Rate per 1000 population, age 30-34, 2001-2005 East Renfrewshire11.9132 Aberdeenshire11.8101 East Lothian12.199 Midlothian11.897 West Lothian11.991 Angus11.992 Perth and Kinross11.5101 Scotland10.487 Rural AreasStandardised Births per 1000 population, 2001- 2005 Age Specific Fertility Rate per 1000 population, age 30-34, 2001-2005 Highland12.187 Moray11.881 Argyll & Bute11.288 Orkney11.184 Dumfries & Galloway11.784 Scottish Borders11.799 Eilean Siar11.4101 Scotland10.487

7. The importance of geography? Geographers and the GROS present evidence as to the spatial variation of childbearing. However elsewhere the primary importance of other factors is highlighted. Class/ stratification (men) Ekert Jaffe et al. (2002) Educational Attainment (women) Simpson et al. (2006) Generally empirical research suggests that measures of stratification are the best indicators of childbearing outcomes for men. Whilst, measures of education/ attainment are the best for women (see references above).

8. Some Theory Irwin (2000) argues that we should utilise the concept reproductive regime when thinking about childbearing outcomes. This refers to the central childbearing relationship between a man and a women located within wider social relations and structures. This theoretically links mirco-level action to macro level social patterns. The reproductive regime is the individual level location of childbearing, where social action takes place that results in macro outcomes. This concept has been central to all my thinking.

9. Some more theory… The concept of the reproductive regime links well with wider sociological theory. Micro social theorists such as Erving Goffman (1959) and Berger and Luckmann (1966) argue that people gain socially from living accepted social norms. A thesis that I have been working with for several years: If the social benefits of having children are higher we will have more children. If the social costs of having children are higher we will have fewer children. Empirically measures of stratification/ attainment indicate different levels of childbearing and fertility. This would represent differing reproductive regimes being lived by people, as an outcome of relative advantage.

10. My Research…so far! Using the Scottish Longitudinal Study (SLS) I have been setting up an event history analysis of first birth. The SLS is a dataset based on Census data and provides a 5% sample of Scotland. It includes, for example, measures of stratification, attainment, geography and vital events data. The data is structured around the census of 1991 and 2001 with individuals being picked up between these time points in vital events data.

11. Event History Analysis? There is an established tradition of the use of Event History Analyses when looking at fertility (Steele et al. 2005, Miranda 2006, McDonald & Rosina 2001) Time is of substantive interest in fertility research. We are able to model processes of relationship formation and childbearing and the effects of time to and between events. It is then possible to include explanatory covariates and their effects. The SLS is appropriate for an event history analysis. I have an event (first birth) and I know time to the event and have a number of explanatory covariates. I have all events (i.e. first births to SLS members between 1991 and 2006). This is around 75,000 events. So about 5000 a year.

12. The importance of Geography? Methodology: Cox Proportional hazard model to assess the effects of geography, attainment and stratification on the hazard of first birth. How does occupational status affect hazard of first birth in Scotland? How does (educational) attainment affect hazard of first birth in Scotland? Hypotheses: Regional differences in occupational status and attainment accounts for variation in hazard of first birth. People of the same occupational status and attainment have different hazard of first birth by region.

13. Models The risk set here is women aged 15-25 in 1991 Number of observations = 33257 Number of births = 21692 (Number of first births to sample between 1991 and 2006) * p= 0.05 **p=0.01 ***p=0.001

14. The risk set here is Women aged 15-25 in 1991 Number of observations = 33257 Number of failures = 21692 (Number of first births to sample between 1991 and 2001) Model 1Model 2Model 3Model 4Model 5Model 6Model 7 Single 91 Married 91.501***.448***.549***.599***.478***.445***.418*** Remarried 91.640***.518***.602***.719***.598***.511***.596*** Divorced 91.373***.267***.396***.458***.346***.260***.254*** Widowed 91-.786-.915-.850-.896-.775-.900-.959 Aged 15-19.335***.0843***.157***.201***.310***.0856***.132*** Aged 20-25 Professional 91 Managerial Technical 1991.489***.457***.339*** Skilled non-manual 1991.452***.414***.219*** Skilled Manual 91.717***.669***.486*** Partly Skilled 91.531***.485***.302*** Unskilled 91.444***.403***.233*** Degree or Higher 91 Further Qualification 91.728***.715***.512*** No Higher or Further Qualifications 91.870***.856***.711*** Not Stated 91.774***.761***.693*** Not Completed U-18, in 1991.888***.873***.859*** City 91 Town 91.282***.168***.054***.046*** Small Accessible 91.254***.150***.025 Small Remote 91.323***.201***.089*.081 Accessible Rural 91.193***.090***-.032-.029 Remote Rural 91.176***.083**-.050-.047 None Catholic.219***.298*** Church of Scotland.213***.210*** Non-Christian.077.545*** Other-Christian-.190***.219*** Another-Religion-.412*-.249

15. Findings & the Future I need to check this analysisfurther »Multiple Births »More descriptive analysis The Importance of Geography? »Try other measures The nature of reproductive regimes in Scotland? »Time varying effects. Education. Marriage »More complex models

16. Berger, P. and Luckmann, T. (1966) The Social Construction of Reality: A Treatise in the Sociology of Knowledge, Penguin: Harmondswoth. Boyle, P. Graham, E. & Feng, Z. (2007) Fertility Variations in Scotland: geographical influences CRFR Research Briefing, Edinburgh, Centre for Research on Families and Relationships. Ekert-Jaffe, O. Joshi, H., Lynch, K. Mougin, R. Rendell, M., & Shapiro, D. (English Edition, 2002-) Fertility, Timing of Births and Socio-economic Status in France and Britain: Social Policies and Occupational Polarization Population. 57, No3. pp. 475-507. Goffman, E. (1959) The Presentation of Self in Everyday Life, Penguin: Harmondsworth. Irwin, S. (2000) Reproductive Regimes: Changing Relations of Inter-dependence and Fertility Change in Sociological Research Online, 5(1):. McDonald, J. W. and Rosina, A. (2001) Mixture modelling of recurrent event times with long-term survivors: Analysis of Hutterite birth intervals, Statistical Methods and Applications, (2001) 10: pp. 257-272 Miranda, A. (2006) Are young cohorts of women delaying first birth in Mexico?, Journal of Population Economics, 19: 55-70 Simpson, R. Morton, S. and Wasoff, F. (2006) Childbearing on Hold: delayed childbearing and childlessness in Britain Steele, F. Constantinos, K. Goldstein, H. Joshi, H. (2005) The Relationship between Childbearing and Transitions from Marriage and Cohabitation in Britain, Demography, Vol. 42. No.4 (Nov., 2005) pp.647-673 CRFR Research Briefing. Edinburgh, Centre for Research on Families and Relationships. GRO Scotland (2002) General Registrars Office Scotland, Annual Report, 2002-2006, ; accessed 10/12/06. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Research/by-topic/public-services-and-gvt/Demography-Research-Prog References

17. Thanks to students and staff at the University of Stirling Also, the ESRC, the organisation funding my PhD and research The help provided by staff of the Longitudinal Studies Centre - Scotland (LSCS) is acknowledged. The LSCS is supported by the ESRC/JISC, the Scottish Funding Council, the Chief Scientist's Office and the Scottish Government. The authors are responsible for the interpretation of the data. Census output is Crown copyright and is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland Acknowledgements: