1. How Do India and China Grow? Thorvaldur Gylfason

2. Compare the development strategies and trajectories of the two economic giants of Asia Compare the development strategies and trajectories of the two economic giants of Asia One obvious difference One obvious difference India is a democracy India is a democracy China, though, is not China, though, is not Many other differences, and similarities that include Many other differences, and similarities that include Low foreign debts Low foreign debts Long coastlines Long coastlines Large overseas communities Large overseas communities Two giants What’s the story?

3. India and China: GDP per capita 1820-1950 (constant 1990 US dollars) China was richer than India 200 years ago, but India did better than China thereafter

4. India and China: GDP per capita 1820-1950 (constant 1990 US dollars) Since 1950, however, China has grown more rapidly than India, albeit less evenly Why?

5. India and China: GDP per capita 1975-2003 (ppp, 2000 international dollars) China 7.7% Africa -0.5% India 3.2%

6. India and China: GDP per capita 1960-2003 (constant 2000 US dollars) China 5.7% India 2.5%

7. India and China: Life expectancy at birth 1960-2004 Persistent rise in life expectancy as well as in other human development indicators in both China and India since 1960

8. to grow What it takes to grow I.Saving and investment Physical capital II.Education, health care Human capital III.Macroeconomic stability Financial capital IV.Exports and imports Foreign capital V.Democracy Social capital VI.Diversification Away from natural capital Undisputed Controversial

9. Three main sources of economic growth + + + denotes a positive effect in the direction shown +

10. Three further sources of economic growth + + + Democracy Diversification ++ Let’s now look at these factors one by one Economic vs. political diversification Stability +

11. Investment 1960-2004 In China, more investment and more rapid economic growth, but … % of GDP

12. Investment 1960-2004 almost twice as much investment In China, it takes almost twice as much investment to grow roughly twice as fast as India Chinese banks have more nonperforming loans than Indian banks % of GDP

13. Investment 1960-2004 41 days In China, it takes 41 days to obtain the licenses necessary to start a business 89 days In India, it takes 89 days % of GDP

14. Gross foreign direct investment 1960-2004 China attracts far more foreign capital than India, especially through joint ventures % of GDP

15. Gross foreign direct investment 1960-2004 corruption China appears to have less endemic corruption: 27% of managers in China view corruption as a major constraint compared with 37% in India % of GDP

16. Gross foreign direct investment 1960-2004 corruption China appears to have less endemic corruption: Transparency International in Berlin gives China 3.4 for corruption and India 2.8 on a scale from 1 to 10 (2004) % of GDP

17. Inflation and financial depth 1960-2004 China’s inflation 1961-2003 was 3.2% per year on average compared with India’s 7.6% China’s liquidity grew faster Liquidity lubricates the wheels of growth % of GDP

18. Inflation and financial depth 1960-2004 China’s market capitalization of listed companies increased from scratch in 1991 to nearly 50% of GDP in 2003 India’s figure is also a bit less than 50% % of GDP

19. Exports 1960-2004 % of GDP China’s exports of goods and services have outpaced those from India taxes on trade In China, taxes on trade are now 9% compared with 16% in India

20. Adult female literacy 1960-2004 China has taught more females than India how to read and write youth female literacy The youth female literacy rate in China is 99% compared with 65% in India % Primary education

21. Adult female literacy 1960-2004 China by now also has more college students than India as proportion of each cohort %19912001China313 India611 Tertiary education

22. Adult female literacy 1960-2004 China has more researchers in R&D than India per million people China 633 (2002) India 120 ( 1998) % Research & science

23. Adult female literacy 1960-2004 China’s scientists publish more research papers than India’s %Million19812001China121 India1211 Research & science

24. Secondary education 1960-2004 China sends almost of her youngsters to secondary school compared with in India China sends almost 70% of her youngsters to secondary school compared with 50% in India “An educated child does not want to plant rice” % %

25. Agriculture 1960-2004 China has done more than India to transfer labor from the land Where have all the workers gone? % of GDP

26. Urban population 1960-2004 China has seen more people migrate from rural areas to cities than India, despite significant restrictions Cities are important Cities are important to economic growth % of total

27. Manufacturing 1960-2004 Rural workers in China have flocked into manufacturing In India, the services sector has expanded rapidly Hardware vs. software % of GDP

28. The results so far China China Saves and invests more than India Saves and invests more than India Attracts more foreign capital Attracts more foreign capital Tolerates less inflation Tolerates less inflation Exports more goods and services Exports more goods and services Teaches more females how to read Teaches more females how to read Transfers her labor more rapidly out of farming into manufacturing and services Transfers her labor more rapidly out of farming into manufacturing and services Small wonder, then, that China grows more rapidly than India Small wonder, then, that China grows more rapidly than India Even without democracy! Even without democracy!

29. Common legacy of foreign influence or domination followed by communism or socialism Common legacy of foreign influence or domination followed by communism or socialism Market-friendly reforms started earlier in China than in India Market-friendly reforms started earlier in China than in India 1978 in China 1978 in China 1991 in India 1991 in India So, China has been reforming her economy twice as long as India So, China has been reforming her economy twice as long as India … and more rapidly and radically … and more rapidly and radically China started earlier

30. Again, one glaring difference Again, one glaring difference India is a democracy India is a democracy China is not China is not Does democracy impede economic growth? Does democracy impede economic growth? Is this, perhaps, why India has grown less rapidly than China since 1950? Is this, perhaps, why India has grown less rapidly than China since 1950? The role of democracy Next question

31. Two theories Democracy is good for growth, and so are investment, education, etc. Democracy is good for growth, and so are investment, education, etc. Reason: democracy fosters efficiency by facilitating change of government, and efficiency is good for growth Reason: democracy fosters efficiency by facilitating change of government, and efficiency is good for growth Democracy hurts growth, or worse Democracy hurts growth, or worse Reason: democracy plays into the hands of pressure groups that tend to abuse their power at public expense Reason: democracy plays into the hands of pressure groups that tend to abuse their power at public expense

32. Growth and political liberties 1965-98 Central African Republic Brazil Democracy is good for growth: No visible sign that democracy stands in the way of economic growth r = -0.62 Botswana China Niger Venezuela Korea 85 countries India

33. Growth and political liberties 1965-98 Central African Republic Brazil r = -0.62 Botswana Niger Venezuela Korea Political liberty is good for growth because oppression breeds inefficiency, and so does corruption China India

34. Growth and democracy Growth and democracy 1960-2000 144 countries Democracy and growth seem to go together r = 0.48 Equatorial Guinea Malaysia Singapore Must look elsewhere for an explanation

35. Education and democracy Education and democracy 1960-2000 Equatorial Guinea Malaysia Singapore Must look elsewhere for an explanation 126 countries Democracy and education go hand in hand r = 0.62

36. Democracy 1946-2000 Democracy Oligocracy Autocracy 1946: 20 out of 70 2000: 90 out of 170 Number of countries

37. Measures to combat corruption Measures to combat corruption Corruption perceptions index from Transparency International Corruption perceptions index from Transparency International Measures to enhance equality Measures to enhance equality Gini index Gini index What do the data say? What do the data say? Other ways to build up social capital

38. Growth and corruption Growth and corruption 1965-1998 55 countries Honesty is good for growth because corruption creates inefficiency Small difference r = 0.40 China India

39. Growth and inequality Growth and inequality 1965-1998 75 countries Equality is good for growth: No visible sign that equality stands in the way of economic growth China India r = -0.50 Big difference

40. Growth and inequality Growth and inequality 1965-1998 Gini- coefficients: India 33 India 33 China 45 China 45 China India r = -0.50 75 countries Big difference

41. One more thing: Fertility China adopted a one-child policy in 1980 China adopted a one-child policy in 1980 Relaxed it subsequently to allow two children – if the first was a girl Relaxed it subsequently to allow two children – if the first was a girl 300 million fewer Chinese today than otherwise would have been the case 300 million fewer Chinese today than otherwise would have been the case This should be good for growth This should be good for growth India did no such thing India did no such thing India’s population is forecast to overtake China’s by 2025 India’s population is forecast to overtake China’s by 2025

42. Births per woman 1960-2004 fewer mouths to feed and fewer minds to educate, allowing better care for each child, and hence more rapid growth Less rapid population growth means fewer mouths to feed and fewer minds to educate, allowing better care for each child, and hence more rapid growth Number of births

43. Child mortality 1960-2004 More and better health care and education have helped reduce child mortality in China and in India, and across the world Let’s take a look Per 1,000 live births

44. Fertility rate, total (births per woman) Lin 0.5 10.5 Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births) Lin 3 520 100 200300400 150 250 350 10 5 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 Africa Americas Arab countries Asia Europe Fertility and child mortality

45. Fertility and growth 1960-2004 Fewer births go along with higher growth Fewer births increase and improve human capital -0,90 Rank correlation between fertility and education is -0,90 r = -0.78 87 countries China India

46. Poverty 1999 Even so, India has a more equal distribution of income, with a Gini index of 33 compared with 45 in China Equality is good for growth % of population

47. The bottom line Determinants of growth: IndiaChina

48. The bottom line Determinants of growth: IndiaChina Exports (% of GDP, 1960-2003) 714

49. The bottom line Determinants of growth: IndiaChina Exports (% of GDP, 1960-2003) 714 Investment (% of GDP, 1960-2003) 2032

50. The bottom line Determinants of growth: IndiaChina Exports (% of GDP, 1960-2003) 714 Investment (% of GDP, 1960-2003) 2032 FDI (gross, % of GDP, 1982-2003) 0.33.2

51. The bottom line Determinants of growth: IndiaChina Exports (% of GDP, 1960-2003) 714 Investment (% of GDP, 1960-2003) 2032 FDI (gross, % of GDP, 1982-2003) 0.33.2 Secondary education (%, 1998-2001) 4864

52. The bottom line Determinants of growth: IndiaChina Exports (% of GDP, 1960-2003) 714 Investment (% of GDP, 1960-2003) 2032 FDI (gross, % of GDP, 1982-2003) 0.33.2 Secondary education (%, 1998-2001) 4864 Inflation (%, 1961-2003) 7,63,2

53. The bottom line Determinants of growth: IndiaChina Exports (% of GDP, 1960-2003) 714 Investment (% of GDP, 1960-2003) 2032 FDI (gross, % of GDP, 1982-2003) 0.33.2 Secondary education (%, 1998-2001) 4864 Inflation (%, 1961-2003) 7,63,2 Manufacturing exports (% of total, 2001) 1635

54. The bottom line Determinants of growth: IndiaChina Exports (% of GDP, 1960-2003) 714 Investment (% of GDP, 1960-2003) 2032 FDI (gross, % of GDP, 1982-2003) 0.33.2 Secondary education (%, 1998-2001) 4864 Inflation (%, 1961-2003) 7,63,2 Manufacturing exports (% of total, 2001) 1635 Fertility (births per woman, 2003) 2.91.9

55. The bottom line Determinants of growth: IndiaChina Exports (% of GDP, 1960-2003) 714 Investment (% of GDP, 1960-2003) 2032 FDI (gross, % of GDP, 1982-2003) 0.33.2 Secondary education (%, 1998-2001) 4864 Inflation (%, 1961-2003) 7,63,2 Manufacturing exports (% of total, 2001) 1635 Fertility (births per woman, 2003) 2.91.9 Corruption (from 1 to 10, 2004) 2.83.4

56. The bottom line Determinants of growth: IndiaChina Exports (% of GDP, 1960-2003) 714 Investment (% of GDP, 1960-2003) 2032 FDI (gross, % of GDP, 1982-2003) 0.33.2 Secondary education (%, 1998-2001) 4864 Inflation (%, 1961-2003) 7,63,2 Manufacturing exports (% of total, 2001) 1635 Fertility (births per woman, 2003) 2.91.9 Corruption (from 1 to 10, 2004) 2.83.4 Democracy (from -10 to 10, 1960-2003) 8.5-7.4

57. The bottom line Determinants of growth: IndiaChina Exports (% of GDP, 1960-2003) 714 Investment (% of GDP, 1960-2003) 2032 FDI (gross, % of GDP, 1982-2003) 0.33.2 Secondary education (%, 1998-2001) 4864 Inflation (%, 1961-2003) 7,63,2 Manufacturing exports (% of total, 2001) 1635 Fertility (births per woman, 2003) 2.91.9 Corruption (from 1 to 10, 2004) 2.83.4 Democracy (from -10 to 10, 1960-2003) 8.5-7.4 Growth per capita (%, 1960-2003) 2.55.7

58. Sir Arthur Lewis got it right Since the second world war it has become quite clear that rapid economic growth is available to those countries with adequate natural resources which make the effort to achieve it W. Arthur Lewis (Accra, 1968)

59. China and India are like other countries, not special cases China and India are like other countries, not special cases What works for the rest of the world also works for them What works for the rest of the world also works for them Economic policies and institutions that spur investment, openness, education, health care, low inflation, diversification, democracy, and family planning are good for growth Economic policies and institutions that spur investment, openness, education, health care, low inflation, diversification, democracy, and family planning are good for growth Conclusion: It can be done These slides – and more! – can be viewed on my website: www.hi.is/~gylfason The End

60. Conclusion: It can be done To grow or not to grow is in large measure a matter of choice Many of the constraints on growth are man-made, and can be removed The End These slides – and more! – can be viewed on my website: www.hi.is/~gylfason