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Zoltán Lippényi What are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in Hungary? What are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in Hungary?

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Presentation on theme: "Zoltán Lippényi What are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in Hungary? What are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in Hungary?"— Presentation transcript:

1 Zoltán Lippényi What are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in Hungary? What are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in Hungary? Comparing municipalities and periods before and during modernization Social Stratification Research Seminar 2010 Utrecht, the Netherlands 10 – 09 – 2010 Zoltán Lippényi ICS/Utrecht University

2 Zoltán Lippényi What are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in Hungary? Comparative intergenerational mobility – back to the past Towards open societies project (Marco van Leeuwen, Ineke Maas, ICS/UU/IISH) –Long-term intergenerational mobility in several historical contexts Is there a trend towards increasing intergenerational occupational mobility? Could changes in occupational mobility be explained by industrialization, urbanization, and institutional development?

3 Zoltán Lippényi What are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in Hungary? Intergenerational mobility in Hungary, 19 th -20 th Century Previous research: communism, transition 1989 (Szelényi, 1998; Bukodi & Róbert, 2004) modernization: increases from second half of the 19 th Century (Berend & Ránki, 1982) Austro-Hungarian Monarchy ( ) agricultural society with large farming underclass immobility of agricultural classes decline regional and municipal differences in modernization (Beluszky & Győri, 2005) growing distances on the urban ladder

4 Zoltán Lippényi What are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in Hungary? Data collection: 60 Hungarian municipalities Marriage records ( ) Sampling: town and village typologies based on data from the 1930 Hungarian census Two-stage selection: –1. towns from different macro-regions –2. two-three villages from the towns micro-region Collecting mobility data from the past

5 Zoltán Lippényi What are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in Hungary? Municipal centersindustrial centersagrarian centers

6 Zoltán Lippényi What are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in Hungary? Preliminary results Kalocsa (Mid-Hungary) and its rural outskirts residents, primarily agrarian Marriages: men, aged N= 2,247

7 Zoltán Lippényi What are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in Hungary?

8 Zoltán Lippényi What are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in Hungary? Data quality - coverage Population: Kalocsa residents who lived in the town at the time of their marriage Unit non-response: –Never got married Hajnal-line: marriage almost universal in most Hungary (Hajnal, 1965) –Married outside church Secularization began in the 1950s –Married in another city Hungary: joint household formation system (Hajnal, 1982) Item non-response: –occupation of the father missing: Fathers early death: Van Poppel and Van Gaalen (2008) found no social status effect

9 Zoltán Lippényi What are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in Hungary? Data quality – reliability Comparability of fathers occupation with that of the son: –different life stage at time of measurement: overestimating downward mobility/immobility Class differences in marital age: could confound with change over time in mobility E.g. sons of farmers marry at older age increasingly over time relative to other classes greater mobility from agricultural origin Additional analyses: famers and farm workers marry earlier, but no time effect and no origin- destination class*time effect on age at marriage Quality of occupational measurement: more detailed titles more mobility observed

10 Zoltán Lippényi What are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in Hungary? Occupations Occupational origin and destination: –HISCO (Van Leeuwen, Maas, Miles, 2002): historically comparable occupational coding scheme –HISCLASS: 6 categories Higher managers and professionals Lower managers and professionals Foremen and skilled workers Farmers Lower/unskilled workers Lower/unskilled farm workers

11 Zoltán Lippényi What are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in Hungary?

12 Zoltán Lippényi What are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in Hungary?

13 Zoltán Lippényi What are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in Hungary? Methods and model specification Multinomial conditional logit model (Breen, 1994; Hendrickx & Ganzeboom, 1998; Wu & Treiman, 2007) Quasi-equal row and column effects 2 model –Equal scaled metric for origins and destinations Origin-destination association: –Scaled association parameter Immobility: –Overall immobility parameter (diagonal) –Immobility parameter for agricultural classes Control covariates: –Immigrants –Rural outskirts

14 Zoltán Lippényi What are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in Hungary? Model selection Model LR chi2 (diff) Df (diff) PBIC (diff) Baseline: class-specific intercepts + association + immobility + covariates M1: Baseline + time-varying intercepts M2: M1 + time-varying association and immobility parameters M3: M2 + time-varying association and immobility, separate for outskirts M4: M1 + time-varying immobility parameters M5: M1 +time-varying overall immobility

15 Zoltán Lippényi What are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in Hungary? Higher managers and professionals-0.63 Lower managers/ professionals Foremen/skilled workers-0.07 Lower skilled/unskilled workers-0.02 Farmers0.50 Farm workers0.51 Parameter estimates M5 Scaled metric

16 Zoltán Lippényi What are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in Hungary? Origin-destination association4.56 *** Immobility1.55 *** Agricultural immobility.86 *** Time * Higher managers and professionals-.001 Time * Lower managers/ professionals-.004 Time * Foremen/skilled workers-.027*** Time * Lower skilled/unskilled workersREF Time * Farmers-.048*** Time * Farm workers-.062*** Immobility*time-.02*** Parameter estimates M5

17 Zoltán Lippényi What are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in Hungary? –Indicators: collected from gazetteers and census sources –Population size (per 100 inhabitants) 7 censuses: 1890, 1900, 1910, 1921, 1930, 1940, 1948 Other years: linear interpolation –Yearly modernization-index (per 1000 inhabitants) number of institutions in a given year (bank, hospital, tax office) number of schools number of larger industrial establishments –High correlations: separate models (time excluded) Modernization and mobility

18 Zoltán Lippényi What are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in Hungary? MODERNIZATION Modernization* immobility-.30 *** LR2 (17) = 3510, p<.000, BIC=4703 POPULATION Population*immobility-.03 *** LR2 (17) = , p<.000, BIC=4697 Results Model 5: Baseline + main effects + immobility interaction

19 Zoltán Lippényi What are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in Hungary? Conclusion Evidence of changing mobility regime before communism: declining immobility (1.3% per year) Similar decline in immobility for agricultural and non- agricultural classes No change in overall association and difference between city and its rural outskirts Modernization and population size: decreasing inheritance

20 Zoltán Lippényi What are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in Hungary? Future plans More contexts: municipal level variation in modernity Multilevel modeling: combine MCL-estimates from several municipalities in meta analysis Comparability of vital records with representative survey data for the same period Urban centers and villages in their micro-regions: residential and intergenerational mobility Hungary, a multiconfessional land: intergenerational mobility and religion

21 Zoltán Lippényi What are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in Hungary? Thank you for your attention!

22 Zoltán Lippényi What are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in Hungary? Controls and additional model specifications Immigrant (Stereotyped ordered effect) + Outskirt resident*agricultural occupation + Outskirt resident*industrial occupation _ Father dead at time of marriage n.s. Aged 14 between 1914 and 1924 (1 st World War) n.s. Quadratic time-specification n.s. Leave out post 1945 marriages identical results

23 Zoltán Lippényi What are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in Hungary? The statistical model logit(π j /π k ) = α j – α k + (φ j – φ k )(μ 0 + μ t X t ) φ v + (β jt – β kt )X t φ j =0, φ j 2 = 1 Stereotyped ordered effect: (φ j – φ k ) β m X m Estimation: Iteratively: φj scaling metric β parameters


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