1. CoastalZone.com The Use of Ecological Risk Assessments in a Watershed Level Context Thorne E. Abbott CoastalZone.com

2. Man & Nature n Population Growth & Urbanization n Environmental Engineering n POTW’s è Natures Assimilative Capacity Surpassed è Speed up natural cleansing processes è Wastewater Treatment

3. CoastalZone.com Pollution Control n Clean Water Act 1972 n $67 billion in Infrastructure n NPDES permits è Fishable, Swimable, Drinkable Waters è Secondary treatment for cities è Control effluent quality & quantity and model stream impacts

4. CoastalZone.com 25 Year Reality Check n Clean Water Action Plan of 1997 n “Non-Attainment” of one or more goals in 35% of waterways è 50% of waterways greatly improved è Why … after investing $67 billion...???

5. CoastalZone.com Why were goals not attained…? Factors not considered in modeling and decision-making: 4 hydrologic boundaries 4 agricultural runoff 4 urban runoff & ecological effects 4 variance in model parameters 4 sources of uncertainty 4 deterministic models

6. CoastalZone.com Indian River Lagoon Sources of Nitrogen Loading n 9% Road drainage n 7% Lawns n 13% Cattle n 31% Agricultural è 31% Human Wastewater Effluent

7. CoastalZone.com Watershed Approach n Defines hydrologic boundaries n Includes point and non-point source pollution n Place-based & local n Includes stakeholders n Prioritizes and targets specific problems

8. CoastalZone.com Ecological Risk Assessment n Problem Formation n Analysis –Ecological Receptors –Exposure Profiles n Risk Characterization n Management options

9. CoastalZone.com Exposure & Effects Profiles n Uses existing local data and information sources n Characterizes probable exposure pathways n Characterizes individuals and species affected n Defines variance in model parameters

10. CoastalZone.com Multiple Stressors n Combine multiple profiles n Define probable exposure and ecological effects n Define levels of risk to populations and communities n Identify sources of uncertainty

11. CoastalZone.com Total Ecosystem Risk n Synthesize multiple stressors & sensitive ecological receptors n Define probable contribution of each stressor to ecological dysfunction n Manage stressors in light of overall ecosystem health

12. CoastalZone.com Watershed Level Risk Assessment Watershed ApproachEcological Risk Assessment

13. CoastalZone.com WLRA incorporates... 4 hydrologic boundaries 4 agricultural runoff 4 urban runoff & ecological effects 4 sources of uncertainty 4 variance in model parameters 4 probabilistic.vs. deterministic model

14. CoastalZone.com But …. Time … ??? Expense … ???

15. CoastalZone.com Multi-Tiered Process n Benefit from the explicit use of uncertainty n Tailored to the site n Place-based & resource-based n Minimize time, effort, and data acquisition costs

16. CoastalZone.com Example Stressor n Zinc n Chloride n Habitat Disturbance n Channelization Source è Industrial Point Source è Non-Point source è Low Flows in summer months è Shipping & Transportation

17. CoastalZone.com Tier 1 - Zinc Quotient Methodology n Known point source n Conservative n Well characterized exposure & effect n Established certainty from sampling n Simple, deterministic methodology Zinc...

18. CoastalZone.com Tier 2 - Chloride Place-based Methodology n Non-point source n Place-based n Characterize local exposure and effects n Use existing data sets to determine probable stressor pathways n Reduces uncertainties in analysis n Focus future monitoring efforts Chloride...

19. CoastalZone.com Tier 3 - Low flows & Channelization Site-specific Methodology n Targeted monitoring n Determine what ecosystem functions are altered by stressors n Define specific species and communities at risk n Local dynamics and interactions understood more clearly Flows & Channel

20. CoastalZone.com Tier 3 Site-specific Methodology n Sample locally sensitive ecological receptors n Target local stessor pathways for monitoring n Implement area-specific management plans n Consider alternative scenarios to minimize stressor / receptor response – increase flows c/o dam releases – alter dredging times c/o receptor sensitivity

21. CoastalZone.com WLRA: Total Ecosystem Assessment n Provides an overall picture of ecosystem health n Relates stressor & receptor relationships to ecological dysfunction n Offers realistic options to improve ecosystem health

22. CoastalZone.com WLRA: Summary n Provides potential alternatives to improve total ecological health n Offers flexibility in planning, prioritizing and monitoring n Creates place-based, resource-oriented, stakeholder driven solutions n Ensures more realistic perspectives and outcomes for ecosystem improvement

23. CoastalZone.com Acknowledgments n The Coastal Society n University of Maryland, –Marine Environmental Estuarine Science Program –Dr. Bob Gardner (Appalachian Environmental Labs) –Dr. Haasch (Chesapeake Bay Labs) –Dr. Karen Prestegaard (College Park)

24. CoastalZone.com Thank You ! Thorne Abbott CoastalZone.com www.coastalzone.com