1. 11 - 1 Lecture Fourteen Cash Flow Estimation and Other Topics in Capital Budgeting Relevant cash flows Working capital in capital budgeting Unequal project lives Inflation

2. 11 - 2 Proposed Project Cost: $200,000 + $10,000 shipping + $30,000 installation. Depreciable cost: $240,000. Inventories will rise by $25,000 and payables by $5,000. Economic life = 4 years. Salvage value = $25,000. MACRS 3-year class.

3. 11 - 3 Sales: 100,000 units/yr @ $2. Variable cost = 60% of sales. Tax rate = 40%. WACC = 10%.

4. 11 - 4 Set up, without numbers, a time line for the project’s cash flows. 01234 OCF 1 OCF 2 OCF 3 OCF 4 Initial Costs (CF 0 ) + Terminal CF NCF 0 NCF 1 NCF 2 NCF 3 NCF 4

5. 11 - 5 Equipment-$200 Installation & Shipping-40 Increase in inventories-25 Increase in A/P5 Net CF 0 -$260  NWC = $25 - $5 = $20. Investment at t = 0:

6. 11 - 6 Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System (MACRS) Major Classes and Asset Lives for MACRS

7. 11 - 7 Recovery Allowance Percentage for Personal Property (MACRS)

8. 11 - 8 What’s the annual depreciation? Due to 1/2-year convention, a 3-year asset is depreciated over 4 years. YearRatexBasisDepreciation 10.33$240$ 79 20.45240108 30.1524036 40.07240 17 1.00$240

9. 11 - 9 Computing the Cash Inflow from Operations

10. 11 - 10

11. 11 - 11 012345678 12% -82,50022,80026,76022,47020,16019,83018,18016,200

12. 11 - 12 Operating cash flows: 1234 Revenues$200 Op. Cost, 60%-120 Depreciation-79-108-36-17 Oper. inc. (BT)1-284463 Tax, 40%---111825 1-172638 Add. Depr’n791083617 Op. CF80916255 Oper. inc. (AT) 11 - 7

13. 11 - 13 Net Terminal CF at t = 4: Salvage Value 25 Tax on SV (40%)-10 Recovery of NWC$20 Net termination CF$35 Q.Always a tax on SV? Ever a positive tax number? Q.How is NWC recovered? 11 - 8

14. 11 - 14 11 - 9 Should CFs include interest expense? Dividends? No. The cost of capital is accounted for by discounting at the 10% WACC, so deducting interest and dividends would be “double counting” financing costs.

15. 11 - 15 11 - 10 Suppose $50,000 had been spent last year to improve the building. Should this cost be included in the analysis? No. This is a sunk cost. Analyze incremental investment.

16. 11 - 16 11 - 11 Suppose the plant could be leased out for $25,000 a year. Would this affect the analysis? Yes. Accepting the project means foregoing the $25,000. This is an opportunity cost, and it should be charged to the project. A.T. opportunity cost = $25,000(1 - T) = $25,000(0.6) = $15,000 annual cost.

17. 11 - 17 11 - 12 If the new product line would decrease sales of the firm’s other lines, would this affect the analysis? Yes. The effect on other projects’ CFs is an “externality.” Net CF loss per year on other lines would be a cost to this project. Externalities can be positive or negative, i.e., complements or substitutes.

18. 11 - 18 Here are all the project’s net CFs (in thousands) on a time line: Enter CFs in CF register, and I = 10%. NPV = -$4.03 IRR = 9.3% k = 10% 0 79.7 1 91.2 2 62.4 3 54.7 4 -260 Terminal CF35.0 89.7 11 - 13

19. 11 - 19 MIRR = ? 10% What’s the project’s MIRR? Can we solve using a calculator? 0 79.7 1 91.2 2 62.4 3 89.7 4 -260 374.8 -260 68.6 110.4 10% 106.1 11 - 14

20. 11 - 20 410 -255.97 0 TV = FV = 374.8 NI/YRPVPMTFV Yes. CF 0 = 0 CF 1 = 79.7 CF 2 = 91.2 CF 3 = 62.4 CF 4 = 89.7 I= 10 NPV= 255.97 INPUTS OUTPUT 11 - 15

21. 11 - 21 Use the FV = TV of inputs to find MIRR 4 -260 0 374.8 9.6 NI/YRPVPMTFV MIRR = 9.6%. Since MIRR < k = 10%, reject the project. INPUTS OUTPUT 11 - 16

22. 11 - 22 What’s the payback period? 0 79.7 1 91.2 2 62.4 3 89.7 4 -260 Cumulative: -26.7-260-89.1-180.363.0 Payback = 3 + 26.7/89.7 = 3.3 years. 11 - 17

23. 11 - 23 If this were a replacement rather than a new project, would the analysis change? Yes. The old equipment would be sold, and the incremental CFs would be the changes from the old to the new situation. 11 - 18

24. 11 - 24 The relevant depreciation would be the change with the new equipment. Also, if the firm sold the old machine now, it would not receive the SV at the end of the machine’s life. This is an opportunity cost for the replacement project. 11 - 19

25. 11 - 25 Q. If E(INFL) = 5%, is NPV biased? A. YES. k = k* + IP + DRP + LP + MRP. Inflation is in denominator but not in numerator, so downward bias to NPV. Should build inflation into CF forecasts. 11 - 20

26. 11 - 26 Consider project with 5% inflation. Investment remains same, $260. Terminal CF remains same, $35. Operating cash flows: 1 2 3 4 Revenues$210$220$232$243 Op. cost 60%-126-132-139-146 Depr’n -79 -108 -36 -17 Oper. inc. (BT)5-205780 Tax, 40% 2 -8 23 32 Oper. inc. (AT)3-123448 Add Depr’n 79 108 36 17 Op. CF 82 96 70 65 11 - 21

27. 11 - 27 Here are all the project’s net CFs (in thousands) when inflation is considered. Enter CFs in CF register, and I = 10%. NPV = $15.0 IRR = 12.6% k = 10% 0 82.1 1 96.1 2 70.0 3 65.0 4 -260 Terminal CF 35.0 100.0 Project should be accepted. 11 - 22

28. 11 - 28 S and L are mutually exclusive and will be repeated. k = 10%. Which is better? Expected Net CFs YearProject SProject L 0($100,000) 1 60,000 33,500 2 60,000 33,500 3 -- 33,500 4 -- 33,500 11 - 23

29. 11 - 29 SL CF 0 -100,000 CF 1 60,00033,500 N j 24 I10 NPV4,1326,190 Q.NPV L > NPV S. Is L better? A.Can’t say. Need replacement chain analysis. 11 - 24

30. 11 - 30 Note that Project S could be repeated after 2 years to generate additional profits. Use replacement chain to calculate extended NPV S to a common life. Since S has a 2-year life and L has a 4-year life, the common life is 4 years. 11 - 25

31. 11 - 31 L: S: 0123 10% 33,500 4 0123 10% 60,000 4 33,500 -100,000 60,000 -100,000 NPV L = $6,190 (already to Year 4) NPV S = $7,547 (on extended basis) -100,000 -40,000 11 - 26

32. 11 - 32 Equivalent Annual Annuity (EAA) That annuity PMT whose PV equals the project’s NPV. S: 01 10% EAA S 2 10% EAA S PV 1 PV 2 4,132 = Previously determined NPV S. 11 - 27

33. 11 - 33 Project S (EAA): 210 -4132 0 EAA S = 2380.82 NI/YRPVPMTFV 410 -6190 0 EAA L = 1952.76 NI/YRPVPMTFV The higher annuity is better. Project L (EAA): INPUTS OUTPUT INPUTS OUTPUT 11 - 28

34. 11 - 34 The project, in effect, provides an annuity of EAA. EAA S > EAA L, so pick S. Replacement chains and EAA always lead to the same decision. 11 - 29

35. 11 - 35 If the cost to repeat S in two years rises to $105,000, which would be best? 0 60,000 123 4 -100,00060,000 NPV S = 3,415 < NPV L = 6,190. Now choose L. 10% 60,000 -105,000 -45,000 11 - 30

36. 11 - 36 11-11 The Erley Equipment Company purchased a machine 5 years ago at a cost of $100,000. The machine had an expected life of 10 years at the time of purchase, and an expected salvage value of $10,000 at the end of 10 years. It is being depreciated by the straight line method toward a salvage value of $10,000, or by $9,000 per year. A new machine can be purchased for $150,000, including installation costs. During its 5-year life, it will reduce cash operating expenses by $50,000 per year. Sales are not expected to change. At the end of its useful life, the machine is estimated to be worthless. MACRS depreciation will be used, and the machine will be depreciated over its 3-year class life rather than its 5-year economic life. (See Table 11A-2 for MACRS recovery allowance percentages.) The old machine can be sold today for $65,000. The firm’s tax rate is 35 percent. The appropriate discount rate is 16 percent. a) If the machine is purchased, what is the amount of the initial cash flow at Year 0? b) What incremental operating cash flows will occur at the end of Years 1 through 5 as a result of replacing the old machine? c) What incremental terminal cash flow will occur at the end of Year 5 if the new machine is purchased? d) What is the NPV of this project? Should Erley replace the old machine?

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38. 11 - 38 012345 16% (88,500)46,67552,97537,22533,02529,350 (10,000) 19,350