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Whats the use of chaos? Chris Budd. Is life predictable or unpredictable? Can we tell what is going to happen In the next second? In the next hour? In.

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Presentation on theme: "Whats the use of chaos? Chris Budd. Is life predictable or unpredictable? Can we tell what is going to happen In the next second? In the next hour? In."— Presentation transcript:

1 Whats the use of chaos? Chris Budd

2 Is life predictable or unpredictable? Can we tell what is going to happen In the next second? In the next hour? In the next year? Does nature have an underlying order and pattern?

3 First answer …. YES! If we look we can see order and pattern all around us ….. Science is the search for order and pattern in the universe

4 Snow crystals

5 The animal world

6 The motion of the planets

7 Galileo Pisa One of the first to realise this

8 1600 Galileo watched a pendulum swing and realised that it was governed by predictable laws Swing time of the pendulum was constant Regardless of how it was pushed Or where it was Or when

9 Newton

10 1686 In the Principia Newton showed that this order and pattern could be expressed by using mathematics Pendulum equation

11 Key idea …. Write down the equations describing a physical system Solve the equations Predict the future Does this work?

12 Neptune: discovered by maths Newtons law of gravitation

13 Weather forecasting Navier-Stokes equations

14 Laplaces prediction … If we were to know the exact position of every particle in the universe then we could predict the future with certainty No room here for free will!

15 Lots of natural and human events seem to be very unpredictable!! Do you feel lucky?

16 Clouds and the weather (after a week)

17 El Nino Ocean temperature Year Climate change

18 The stock market

19 My dog

20 Does this complex behaviour arise because nature is really complicated and unexplainable does it arise naturally from Newtons laws??? Or …….

21 The Double Pendulum Motion can be Periodic in phase : predictable Periodic out of phase : predictable Chaotic : unpredictable

22 Newtons laws apply to the double pendulum! Angle of top part Angle of bottom part

23 Chaos Simple rules can lead to complex and unpredictable behaviour

24 Poincare: discoverer of chaos

25 The problems of being a town planner

26 Population of the town in the year n Can we relate this years population: To next years population: Can we predict the population of a town? Year Population

27 Malthus …. a = 1 … population stays constant a > 1 … population increases a < 1 … population decreases Birthrate/Deathrate

28 Problem … population runs out of resources Improved model proposed by May Maximum population What does this predict?

29 a = 2 Single point

30 a = 3 Two points

31 a = points

32 a = 3.8 Chaos

33 So, whats the use of chaos?

34 Chaos: Simple rules can give complex patterns Barnsley fractal fern

35 Mandlebrot set Fractal mountain Computer graphics

36 Turbulence: da Vinci New understanding of nature

37 River delta

38 Motion of the asteroids

39 Chaos is the science of the 21 st Century!


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