copyright anbirts4 Why Manage Risk? Objective of the Organisation Maximise Shareholder Wealth How? Cash Flow = Value Discount Rate - Reduce Volatility - Reduce Risk - Reduce Cost of Capital
copyright anbirts5 Should We Manage Risk? Perfect Markets Parity Portfolio Theory
copyright anbirts6 Translation Exposure Translation exposure represents the effects, as reflected in the balance sheet and/or profit and loss account, of a movement in exchange rates between reporting dates on the translation of assets and liabilities denominated in foreign currencies.
copyright anbirts7 Translation Exposure (In Millions) ASSETSUSD@ 1.20 GBP @ 1.50 GBP LIABILITIESUSD@ 1.20 GBP @ 1.50 GBP Cash151210Creditors due in one year 957963 Investments201713Creditors due over one year 654 Debtors655444Provisions111 Fixed Assets201713Shareholder Funds 181512 1201008012010080
copyright anbirts8 Economic Exposure The risk that, long term, the relative appreciation in real terms, of the currency in which a companys major costs are denominated, will adversely affect that companys competitive position.
copyright anbirts9 Economic Exposure: An Example CoA Manufacturer in UK selling to France Inflation rate 4% p.a. Current Price GBP 100 Current Exchange Rate EUR/GBP.6503 Competitor in France Inflation Rate2% p.a. Current PriceEUR 153.7752 At Year End If PPP held UK Price GBP 104 (100 x 1.04) French Price EUR 156.85068 (153.7752 x 1.02) Therefore Exchange Rate 104 =.6630509 156.85068 But if rate has moved to EUR/GBP.6300 then UK Price of GBP 104 = EUR 165.08 French price of EUR 156.85 Will they sell any goods?
copyright anbirts10 Transaction Exposure The risk that arises from exchange rate changes reflected in the day to day trading activities of a company. TRANSACTION EXPOSURE EXAMPLE Receipt due 180 days USD1,000,000 GBP value @ current spot of 1.44 694,444 GBP value @ current spot of 1.50 666,666 LOSS27,778
copyright anbirts16 FX SWAP The Spot Purchase and Forward Sale of Currency. The Two Transactions are Executed Simultaneously and are based off the Same Spot Rate
copyright anbirts17 FX Swap Rates As with a forward contract the Bank will quote a spot and a forward rate for both sides of the market GBP/CAD 2.3378- 2.3403 1 Month Points 14 12
copyright anbirts18 FX SWAP RATES However it is only the Forward Points representing the differential in interest rates between the two currencies that will affect the swap. The forward points to be used will be determined by the forward transaction in the Swap. The Same Spot Rate will be used for both the purchase and sale of the currency
copyright anbirts19 EXAMPLE Your Canadian subsidiary tells you that it wishes to borrow Canadian dollars for one month (30 days). Their local bank will lend at 5.5% pa. Your GBP interest cost is 6% pa. Is it cheaper for the subsidiary to borrow from you or from the bank?
copyright anbirts20 THE SWAP CALCULATION 1 Questions to ask 1 What will it cost in CAD? 2 In the Swap, what side will we be on in the forward? (this will determine the spot rate to use) 3 Therefore how many GBP do we need to borrow today to give CAD 3,000,000? 4 Therefore how many GBP will we have to pay back at 6.0% in the future? 5 At the forward rate, how many CAD will be needed? 6 Is this more or less than borrowing CAD directly?
copyright anbirts21 THE SWAP CALCULATION 2 Borrowing CAD directly from the local bank will cost 3,000,000 x.055 x 30/365 = 13,561.64
copyright anbirts22 THE SWAP CALCULATION 3 Spot 2.3378 - 2.3403 30 Day Points 14 12 1 month forward outright 2.3364 - 2.3391 Today At spot of 2.3403 Buy CAD 3,000,000.00 Sell GBP 1,281,886.94 1,281,886.94x.06x30/365 = 6,321.63 Forward At forward of 2.3391 Sell CAD 3,013,248.68 Buy GBP 1,288,208.57
copyright anbirts23 ANSWER Borrow CAD Direct at 5.5% Cost CAD 13,561.64 Borrow CAD via the swap Cost CAD 13,248.68 So, on financial basis, do the swap Effective interest rate in CAD 13,248.68 x 365/30 = 5.37% 3,000,000
copyright anbirts24 USES OF THE SWAP Can be used to invest or borrow in a foreign currency for a specified period of time without creating an fx exposure concentrate funds from a number of different currencies into one currency to obtain better rates without creating an fx exposure offset surplus funds in one currency against deficit in another currency for a specified period of time without creating an fx exposure
copyright anbirts26 Interest Rate Risk The risk of loss of interest revenue that occurs when interest rates change, through the mismatch of re-pricing of assets and liabilities.
copyright anbirts27 Interest Rate Risk - Gap Analysis (1)At 12% interest and 80% forecast op profit (2) at 10% interest and 80% forecast op profit Months0-66-1212-1818-2424-3030-3636-4242-48 Principal90007875675056254500337522501125 i @ 8%3653192732281821379146 + Principal14901444139813531307126212161171 Op profit15981597159815971598 15971598 I @ 10%45639934228522817111457 + Principal15811524146714101353129612391182 i @ 12%54747941134227320513768 + Principal16721604153614671398133012621193 Op profit15981597159815971598159715981597 Short Fall(78)(7)62130200267336404 (1) Op Profit127912781279127812791278 Short Fall(393)(326)(257)(189)(119)(52)1686 (2) Op Profit Short Fall(302)(246)(188)(132)(74)(18)3997
copyright anbirts29 Forward Forward Money Situation: Need to borrow GBP 1,000,000 from 30 days time for 30 days Current Interest Rate 1 month 3-3½ 2 month 3¾-4 Borrowing Spread ¼% Action: Borrow for 2 months at 4¼%, Deposit for 1 month at 3% Borrow today GBP 997,540.31 and Deposit for 1 month 997,540.31 x.03 x 30/365 = 2,459.69 = 1,000,000 in total at T30 Cost of Borrowing: 997,540.31 x.0425 x 60/365 = 6969.12 Total to Repay at 60 days = 1,004,509.43 Effective Cost of Borrowing = 4,509.43 x 365/30 = 5.4865 from T30-T60 1,000,000
copyright anbirts30 Financial Futures Definition A term used to designate the standardised contracts covering the purchase or sale of an agricultural commodity e.g. corn, commodity e.g. oil, foreign currency or financial instrument for future delivery on an organised futures exchange
31 Financial Futures An Example Three Month Eurodollar Interest Rate Future Unit of Trading USD 1,000,000 Delivery/Expiry Months March, June, September, December and four serial months, such that 24 delivery months are available for trading, with the nearest six delivery months being consecutive calendar months Delivery /Expiry Day First business day after last trading day Last Trading Day11.00 Two business days prior to third Wednesday of delivery month Quotation100.00 minus rate of interest Minimum Price Movement (tick size & value) 0.01 (USD 25) Initial Margin (Straddle Margin) USD 625 (USD 200) Trading hours08.30 – 16.00
copyright anbirts32 Financial Futures Example Date: 21 st October 2009 Situation: USD 1,000,000 due November 21 st 2009 Intention: Invest three month on interbank market Problem: Expect rates to fall from current rate of 2 % Questions 1)Will you buy or sell futures? 2)How many?
copyright anbirts33 Financial Futures Example Action Today Today in the Futures Market: Buy one December contract at 98.1 (100 -1.9%) Note: at todays rate of 2 % USD 1,000,000 would earn 1,000,000 x.02 x 90/360 = 5,000
copyright anbirts34 Financial Futures Example Action on 21st November In cash market, arrange three month deposit of USD at current rate of 1.5 % 1,000,000 x.015 x 90/360 = 3,750 This equals a loss of 1,250 over 2% rate Sell the future for 98.6 (100 -1.4)
copyright anbirts35 Financial Futures Example Net Result 1,000,000 x.015 x 90/360 = 3,750 Bought Future at 98.10 Sold Future at 98.60 Gain 50 basis points At USD 25 per tick =1,250 = 5,000
copyright anbirts36 Financial Futures Example Question? Why have we managed a perfect hedge? i.e. ended up with USD 1,005,000 at end of deposit? Note: the cash price moved from 2 to 1.5 A movement of 50 basis points The futures price also moved by 50 basis points exactly offsetting the loss on the cash market
copyright anbirts37 Financial Futures Example Will this always be so? No Cash market Futures market Today Expiry Basis
copyright anbirts38 Financial Futures Example So what if held to expiry? Cash market = 1.5 therefore futures price would be 98.50 But bought at 98.10 Gain 40 basis points Therefore net result = 40 x 25 = 1,000 Plus interest earned at 1.5 = 3,750 Total 4,750 So effective interest = 4,750/1,000,000 x 360/90 x 100 = 1.9%
copyright anbirts39 Forward Rate Agreements (FRAs) An agreement between two parties to compensate one another, in cash, on a certain date for the effect of any subsequent movement in market rates in respect of a future interest period.
copyright anbirts40 FRA Example Need to borrow GBP 1,000,000 in 30 days time for 30 days. Worried rates will rise. Rate Agreed 5 1/8 (5.125) Actual Rate On Day T30 5 1/4 Compensation amount paid by Bank to Company 1,000,000 x.05125 x 30/365 = 4,212.33 1,000,000 x.0525 x 30/365 = 4,315.07 = 102.74 = 102.74 = 102.30 1 + (.0525 x 30/365 ) QuotePeriodRate 1-25-5 1/8 1-45 1/8 -5 1/4 3-125 1/4 -5 3/8
copyright anbirts41 Test 1,000,000, - 102.30 = 999,897.70 999,897.70 x.0525 x 30/365 = 4,314.63 Less Compensation Amount = 102.30 Total Net Interest Paid 4,212.33
copyright anbirts43 8 1/2 L -(L + ½ ) +(L) -8 1/2 Net –9.0 AAA -(8) + 8. 1/2 -L Net – (L – 1/2 ) Benefit ¾ + 1 1 3/4 BBB 8 1/2 L -(L + ½ ) +(L) -8 1/2 Net –9.0
copyright anbirts44 Interest Rate Swap AAA -(8) + 8.5 1/2 -L Net – (L – 1/2 ) 1/4 ¾ 1 3/4 Benefit Bank 8 1/2 L -(L + ½ ) +(L) -8 3/4 –9 1/4 BBB L 8 3/4 + 1/4
copyright anbirts45 Interest Rate Cap or Ceiling Agreement An interest rate cap is an agreement between the seller or provider of the cap and the borrower to limit the borrowers floating interest rate to a specified level for an agreed period of time. For the investor substitute floor and investor above.
copyright anbirts46 Interest Rate Cap Effective Interest Rate Cap: 5 Years, 6 Mo Rollover, Strike Price 7%, Premium 225 per million
copyright anbirts47 Interest Rate Collar Agreements An interest rate collar is an agreement whereby the seller or provider of the collar agrees to limit the borrower/investors floating interest rate to a band limited by a specified ceiling rate and floor rate.
copyright anbirts48 Interest Rate Collar Collar: 5 year, 6 Mo Rollover, Zero Premium, Strike Prices 7% and 3%
copyright anbirts49 Duration You have a bond, life 5 years with annual interest payments of 8%, face value GBP 1,000 What is your problem? Market Price Risk Re-Investment Rate Risk
copyright anbirts50 Duration Duration gives an average life of the cash flows of an instrument by weighting the Net Present Values of the cash flows by their timing. Cash FlowYearNPVNPV x Y 80174.07 80268.59137.18 80363.51190.53 80458.80235.20 10805735.033675.15 1,0004,312.13
copyright anbirts51 Duration Duration = 4,312.13 = 4.31 years 1,000 Known as Macauley Duration
copyright anbirts52 Uses of Duration Immunisation Wish to fix yield on a portfolio of bonds regardless of whether interest rates go up or down. Done by creating a portfolio of bonds with a Duration equal to the required period.
copyright anbirts53 Uses of Duration Price Sensitivity Modified Duration which is Macauley Duration (1 + y/n) Wherey = yield n = number of discounting periods 4.31 = 3.99 (1.08) Or increase in the market interest rate of 1% will lead to a drop in the value of the bond of approximately 3.99%.