Presentation on theme: "UK DSA Conference Coleraine 2009 "Openness, Economic growth and Labour in times of Global Downturn; with special reference to Asian examples Kenneth Jackson."— Presentation transcript:
UK DSA Conference Coleraine 2009 "Openness, Economic growth and Labour in times of Global Downturn; with special reference to Asian examples Kenneth Jackson Centre for Development Studies, University of Auckland
Introduction Degrees of Openness and Developing countries and Recession Migration and Remittance Activity Aid, Trade and Foreign Investment Effectiveness in Poverty Reduction Some Asian Impacts Conclusions
Degrees of Openness and Developing countries and Recession Agriculture in the global scene and food prices Measures and theories of openness Openness Policy stances and trade liberalisation Recession, Depression Downturn, how real and how imagined?
Migration and Remittances Migration numbers and openness Remittance flows and openness Long term and short term fluctuations Other Aspects: Diaspora Environment, trade miles etc.
Aid, Trade Foreign Investment to Migration and Remittances Aid expansion and fear of downturn Trade and Growth Growth and Development FDI and growth Growth and development Glytsos and MIRAB Remittances and development
General Effectiveness in Poverty Reduction Fastest growing contribution to growing income from outside coming from remittance flows. Shifting good and service production as limited in impact on poverty alleviation Aid limited in impact. 0.7 campaign as ineffective! In recession remittances as key variable Difficulties of estimating remittance flows
Some Particular Asian Impacts India and China India as likely to be hit harder than China Internal and external factors Elsewhere
Current crisis: some views Forecasted remittance flows to 2011 For Developing countries as a whole suggested by Ratha and Mohapatra (2009: 2) as likely to show a fall to 2009 then stable to slow growth to 2011. Investment and Aid not really showing declines
Key Conclusions Raha and Mohapatras five resilience factors for remittances: Revisions of World Bank numbers Focus on 3D: Drivers of development Diaspora Distance