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Modified over 2 years ago
© Crown copyright Met Office 10 years ago (IPCC TAR, 2001)
© Crown copyright Met Office 10 years on : 21 st century global temperatures evolving as predicted in the 20 th century Global temperature response to greenhouse gases and aerosols Solid: climate model simulation (HadCM2) Dashed: recalibrated prediction using data to August 1996 (Myles Allen, Stott, Mitchell, Schnur, Delworth, 2000) Red : Observed decadal mean temperature
© Crown copyright Met Office 10 years on : Regional capability of climate models greatly improved
© Crown copyright Met Office Seasonal forecasts have regional skill Example : Forecast of onset of 2011 short rains (Oct-Dec) over Greater Horn of Africa, issued August, 2011 Probabilistic forecast Observations Graham et al, Clivar Exchanges
© Crown copyright Met Office Next 10 years Several-fold increase in resolution Leading to resolution of synoptic features eg hurricanes Improvements in features crucial to regional climate such as blocking Better use of observations to improve model capability and quantify uncertainties Improved physical and dynamical basis of models Enhanced complexity Improvements in methods to communicate climate model results and their uncertainties
© Crown copyright Met Office Why ? Climate services for Monitoring Attribution Prediction Attribution as the bridge between monitoring and early warning
© Crown copyright Met Office Why ? Attribution of extreme weather and climate- related events as the bridge between monitoring and early warning Probabilistic Levels of confidence based on reliability assessments Robust Timely WCRP Position Paper (Stott et al, 2012)
© Crown copyright Met Office Early warning Example : ENSO and Australian Floods Attribution of very wet signals for NE Australia to La Niña Increased risk predicted several months in advance BoM, 2010 Flooding at Toowoomba, Australia, 2011 Potential for adaptation Met Office, 2010
Based on data to 2000, 20 years of additional data could halve uncertainty in future warming © Crown copyright Met Office Stott and Kettleborough, 2002.
University of Oxford Uncertainty in climate science: what it means for the current debate Myles Allen Department of Physics, University of Oxford
© Crown copyright Met Office Extreme weather and climate change Dr Peter Stott, Met Office Hadley Centre.
© Crown copyright Met Office Decadal Climate Prediction Doug Smith, Nick Dunstone, Rosie Eade, Leon Hermanson, Adam Scaife.
University of Oxford Quantifying and communicating the robustness of estimates of uncertainty in climate predictions Implications for uncertainty language.
Africa Group paper session, Monday 18 February 2008 Charlie Williams Climate modelling in AMMA Ruti, P. M., Hourding, F. & Cook, K. H. CLIVAR Exchanges,
Workshop on Enhancing the Horn of Africa Adaptive and Responsive Capacity to Climate Change Impacts November 2014, Nairobi Kenya Impacts of ENSO.
© Crown copyright Met Office Met Office activities related to needs of humanitarian agencies Anca Brookshaw.
© Crown copyright Met Office Climate Change Fact or Fiction? Graham Butler – Met Office PWS Advisor South Tyneside 4 th December 2009.
Page 1© Crown copyright 2006 Matt Huddleston With thanks to: Frederic Vitart (ECMWF), Ruth McDonald & Met Office Seasonal forecasting team 14 th March.
Comments on Discussion paper “Detecting, understanding, and attributing climate change” David Karoly School of Meteorology University of Oklahoma.
Loading the Weather Dice Attribution of extreme weather events to climate change Friederike Otto, Neil Massey, Richard Jones, Richard Washington & Myles.
Climate Prediction on Timescales of Seasons to Decades A tool for sustainable development in the 21 st Century T N Palmer ECMWF.
Powering our future with weather, climate and water A large part of my presentation will address Extreme events A few words on the meeting organized yesterday.
© Crown copyright Met Office Evidence in Science and Policy Scientific evidence Vicky Pope.
o Weather and climate o Climate variability and climate change o Different time scales and forecasts o Early warning, early action o Vanuatus changing.
Planning for NOAA’s Climate Interests US CLIVAR SSC Meeting “Planning for US CLIVAR Post-2013” Silver Spring, MD January 9, 2012 Sandy Lucas ESS Program.
© Crown copyright Met Office Strategy for Seasonal Prediction Development: UKMO and WGSIP activities Adam Scaife Head Monthly to Decadal Prediction Met.
Global warming: temperature and precipitation observations and predictions.
00/XXXX 1 Evaluation of climate models, Attribution of climate change IPCC Chpts 7,8 and 12. John F B Mitchell Hadley Centre How well do models simulate.
Ryan N. Maue Research Meteorologist WeatherBELL Analytics October 30, 2015 Global Tropical Cyclones.
Global Warming - 1 An Assessment The balance of the evidence... PowerPoint 97 PowerPoint 97 To download: Shift LeftClick Please respect copyright on this.
Climate Forecasting Unit Prediction of climate extreme events at seasonal and decadal time scale Aida Pintó Biescas.
Winter Weather Forecast How Windy Will in Be? Professor Cliff Mass University of Washington.
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Seasonal dynamical prediction of coral.
Beyond CMIP5 Decadal Predictions and the role of aerosols in the warming slowdown Doug Smith, Martin Andrews, Ben Booth, Nick Dunstone, Rosie Eade, Leon.
The evolution of climate modeling Kevin Hennessy on behalf of CSIRO & the Bureau of Meteorology Tuesday 30 th September 2003 Canberra Short course & Climate.
October Winter Forecast October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist.
DROUGHT MONITORING SYSTEM IN DHMZ National Seminar on Drought Management 16 th April 2012, Zagreb Ksenija Cindrić, D. Mihajlović, J. Juras L. Kalin, B.
WMO-JMA Public Forum Workshop of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Reducing Risks of Weather, Climate and Water Extremes through Advanced Detecting,
WMO Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) – oppertunities for WGNE 31 st WGNE meeting, April 2016, CSIR, Pretoria, South Africa.
Components of the Global Climate Change Process IPCC AR4.
Weather and Climate. Introduction Before the end of June 2011, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) officially declared the year.
28 August 2006Steinhausen meeting Hamburg On the integration of weather and climate prediction Lennart Bengtsson.
The Climate Prediction Project Global Climate Information for Regional Adaptation and Decision-Making in the 21 st Century.
Coordinated climate change experiments to be assessed as part of the IPCC AR5 Gerald A. Meehl National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado.
Picture: Bill Chapman. From the 1998 ARCSS Science Plan, the first theme was identified as follows: 1. How will the Arctic climate change over the next.
The new German project KLIWEX-MED: Changes in weather and climate extremes in the Mediterranean basin Andreas Paxian, University of Würzburg MedCLIVAR.
© Crown copyright Met Office Climate Projections for West Africa Andrew Hartley, Met Office: PARCC national workshop on climate information and species.
World weather news st March Worst drought in decades in N China Ongoing La Niña Cold Sea Surface Temperatures 1 st March Landslides follow heavy.
North American Water Program a prospectus nawaterprogram.org P. Houser, Page 1.
© Crown copyright Met Office Decadal predictions of the Atlantic ocean and hurricane numbers Doug Smith, Nick Dunstone, Rosie Eade, David Fereday, James.
© Crown copyright Met Office Regional/local climate projections: present ability and future plans Research funded by Richard Jones: WCRP workshop on regional.
Challenges and Needs in Research Views of Japan -emerging challenges and policy needs- Hiroki Kondo Advisor to the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports,
© Crown copyright Met Office Seasonal forecasting: Not just seasonal averages! Emily Wallace November 2012.
Protecting our Health from Climate Change: a Training Course for Public Health Professionals Chapter 2: Weather, Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate.
© University of Reading 2009 EUMETSAT Monitoring changes in precipitation and radiative energy using satellite data and.
Recent Advances in Climate Extremes Science AVOID 2 FCO-Roshydromet workshop, Moscow, 19 th March 2015 Simon Brown, Met Office Hadley Centre.
Regional Climate, Extremes, and Impacts presented by Andrew Wittenberg NOAA/GFDL Regional temperature trends, and the 2012 MAM warm anomaly over the eastern.
Physical science findings relevant to climate change adaptation Richard Jones, Met Office Science Fellow/Visiting Professor, School of Geography and Environment.
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