1. OWNERSHIP AND POLICY SPACE IN POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPERS (PRSP) Meg Elkins Simon Feeny, RMIT University DSA/EADI Conference 2011, York Rethinking Development in an Age of Scarcity and Uncertainty

2. Outline of the presentation Background Purpose and scope Previous literature and contribution Methodology Results Conclusion Limitations and further research 2 5/16/2014

3. Background PRSPs PRSPs Guiding principles Country-driven and owned; results orientated; comprehensive in scope; partnership orientated; medium and long-term in focus. Ownership Ownership and partnership are co-dependent principles An evolving discourse should have a degree of policy diversity with a country-specific focus. Policy Space Contentious in PRSP literature Claims of limited policy space in the macroeconomic policies 3 5/16/2014

4. Purpose and Scope This study represents a systematic and comprehensive evaluation of 81 PRSPs 2000-2008 in terms of macroeconomic content. This research develops three development paradigm indices : Washington Consensus(WC); Post-Washington Consensus (PWC) and New York Consensus (NYC). Indices capture the degree of alignment of PRSPs to these paradigms Contribution: Systematic and comprehensive review of PRSP content 81 PRSPs 58 countries 2000-2008 Greater number of PRSPs and countries than previously undertaken Scorecard analysis: alignment indices created for three development paradigms 4 5/16/2014

5. Literature Review Previous studies find that the Washington Consensus is the dominant paradigm in PRSPs FDI deregulation, trade and capital account liberalisation represent missing content in PRSPs. Strict monetary and fiscal policy and privatisation are rarely absent (Sumner 2006) Few mechanisms to counteract macroeconomic volatility (Gottschalk, 2005) The similarity of the programmes to those that form part of the normal international agenda suggests PRSPs are just window dressing (Stewart & Wang, 2003) PRSPs demonstrate commitment MDGS via social investment in health, education and water. Empowerment, vulnerability and gender issues are given lower levels of attention (Fukuda-Parr, 2010) 5 5/16/2014

6. Methodology Collated data from 81 PRSP documents 72 policy options examined across three contemporary paradigms Created a scorecard system demonstrating a degree of PRSP alignment of each policy. Policies given a score of 0,1,2,3 Scorecard systems created the index The normalised index measures the degree that a PRSP is aligned to the three different paradigm Cross-tabulation analysis to determine characteristics with higher degree of alignment 6 5/16/2014

7. Washington Consensus – Williamson (1990) Fiscal discipline Re-orientation of fiscal expenditures Tax reform Financial liberalisation/interest rate liberalisation Unified and competitive exchange rate Trade liberalisation Openness to foreign direct investment Privatisation Deregulation Secure property rights 7 5/16/2014

8. Post-Washington Consensus – Rodrik (2006) Corporate governance Anti-corruption measures Flexible labour markets WTO agreements Financial codes and standards Prudent capital account opening Non-intermediate exchange rate Independent central banks Social safety nets Targeted poverty reduction 8 5/16/2014

9. New York Consensus: UNDPs Millennium Development Project and Fukuda-Parr (2010) Infrastructure capacity – capital expenditure Rural development- agricultural productivity and management Education – provisions Health – child and maternal mortality, control for diseases Governance – rule of law and anti-corruption measures Employment – public works, decent work programmes Water and sanitation – infrastructure and management Gender equality and empowerment – representation and land entitlement Environment – biodiversity, urban dwellings, resource protection Science and Technology – research and development, higher education 9 5/16/2014

10. Paradigm Index Averages 10 5/16/2014 NYC: 0.644 WC:0.638 PWC:0. 510

11. WC policy Adoption scores 11 5/16/2014

12. PWC Policy Adoption Scores 12 5/16/2014

13. 13 5/16/2014 NYC Policy Adoption Scores

14. Cross-Tabulations for WC Index Scores and Region Sub- Saharan n=44 Europe & Central Asia n=13 Latin American & Caribbean n=7 South Asia n=7 East Asia and Pacific n=8 Middle and North Africa n=2 Low WC score <.659 68.18 %30.77%28.57% 25.00%100.0 % High WC score >.659 31.82 %69.23 %71.43 % 75.00%0.000% 14 Pearson chi2(5) = 14.2211 Pr = 0.014 5/16/2014

15. Cross-Tabulations for WC Index Scores and Income Low Income (GDP per capita <US$1,500)* High Income (GDP per capita <US$1,500)* Number of PRSPs Low WC score <.659 73.81 %29.73%42 High WC score >.659 29.55 %70.27%39 Total100.00% 81 5/16/2014 15 Pearson chi2(1) = 13.3519 Pr = 0.000 * GDP per capita, with purchasing power parity in constant international dollars in 2005

16. Cross-Tabulations for PWC Index Scores and Region Post - Washington Consensus Score Sub- Saharan (n=44) Europe & Central Asia (n=13) Latin American & Caribbean (n= 7) South Asia (n=7) East Asia and Pacific (n=8) Middle and North Africa (n=2) Low PWC index 65.91% 7.69 %57.14%33.33%25.00%100.00 % High PWC index 34.09 %92.31%42.86%66.67%75.00%0.000% 5/16/2014 16 Pearson chi2(5) = 19.1814 Pr = 0.002

17. Cross-Tabulations for PWC Index Scores and Income Low Income <$US1,500 (GDP per capita)* High Income >$US1,500 (GDP per capita)* Number of PRSPs Low PWC score <. 5101 61.36.%35.14%40 High PWC score >.5101 38.64%64.86%41 Total100.00% 81 5/16/2014 17 Pearson chi (2) = 5.5315 Pr = 0.019 * GDP per capita, with purchasing power parity in constant international dollars in 2005

18. Cross-Tabulations for NYC Index Score and Timing Before 2004 After 2004 Number of PRSPs Low NYC score <.643 64.44 %22.22%37 High NYC score >.643 35.56%77.78%44 Total100.00% 81 5/16/2014 18 Pearson chi2(1) = 14.3690 Pr = 0.000

19. Conclusion Dominance of WC content is not consistent with the findings of this study There is a rise of NYC as a more influential paradigm Regional and income levels influence WC and PWC alignment Timing is an influence in NYC alignment Scope for policy space in PRSPs 19 5/16/2014

20. Limitations and Future Research Current investigation is only into content analysis. Future investigations would need to: 1) Indicate whether a strong index ranking translates into tangible impact on poverty and human development. 2)Undertake regression analysis to explains policy adoption in PRSP across countries and identify common patterns. 20 5/16/2014

21. PRSP Investigated: Regions, Countries and Years 5/16/2014 21 Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North AfricaEast Asia & PacificSouth AsiaSub-Saharan Africa Albania 2001Bolivia 2001Yemen 2002Cambodia 2002Sri Lanka 2002Burkina Faso 2000Lesotho 2005 Kyrgyz Republic 2002Honduras 2001Djibouti 2004Timor Leste 2002Nepal 2003Mauritania 2000Nigeria 2005 Tajikistan 2002Nicaragua 2001Afghanistan 2008Mongolia 2003Pakistan 2003Tanzania 2000 Sao Tome & Principe 2005 Armenia 2003Guyana 2002Vietnam 2003Bhutan 2004Uganda 2000Sierra Leone 2005 Azerbaijan 2003Nicaragua 2005Lao 2004Bangladesh 2005Mozambique 2001Tanzania 2005 Georgia 2003Dominica 2006Cambodia 2005Maldives 2008Benin 2002Uganda 2005 Bosnia-Herzegovina 2004Haiti 2008Vietnam 2006Ethiopia 2002Burundi 2006 Moldova 2004Lao 2008Gambia 2002Malawi 2006 Serbia Montenegro 2004Guinea 2002Mauritania 2006 Albania 2008Malawi 2002Mozambique 2006 Armenia 2008Rwanda 2002Zambia 2006 Moldova 2008 Sao Tome & Principe 2002Congo DR 2007 Uzbekistan 2008Senegal 2002Gambia 2007 Zambia 2002Guinea 2007 Cameroon 2003Madagascar 2007 Chad 2003Senegal 2007 Ghana 2003Benin 2008 Madagascar 2003Cape Verde 2008 Burkina Faso 2004Liberia 2008 Cape Verde 2004Niger 2008 Kenya 2004Rwanda 2008 Ghana 2005