Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

CSPP European University Institute, Florence THE POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS OF INTERNET DIFFUSION Professor Richard Rose Director, Centre for the Study of.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "CSPP European University Institute, Florence THE POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS OF INTERNET DIFFUSION Professor Richard Rose Director, Centre for the Study of."— Presentation transcript:

1 CSPP European University Institute, Florence THE POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS OF INTERNET DIFFUSION Professor Richard Rose Director, Centre for the Study of Public Policy University of Aberdeen 16 February 2010

2 THE LOGIC OF DIFFUSION LEADERS AND LAGGARDS WITHOUT A DIVIDE 1. At any given point in time, usage is higher in some countries and social groups than others. But to call this a "divide" is static. 2. Going first gives leadership, but is also costly. 3. Following on is less costly and easier, so the rate of growth will be faster 4. With a fixed goal of 100% usage as the limit, the growth of initial leaders will decelerate and then flatten on a high plateau. 5. Once leaders stop growing, the question is not whether followers will catch up but when. 2.

3 3. PROXIMITY OF RUSSIANS TO THE INTERNET Source: Centre for the Study of Public Policy, New Russia Barometer XIV. Fieldwork by Levada Centre, 3-23 January 2005, number of respondents: 2,107. For further details, see

4 TRENDS IN RUSSIAN INTERNET USE, AWARENESS AND IGNORANCE Source: Levada Centre (formerly VCIOM: nationwide representative samples of more than 2,000 respondents, carried out in November of each year. Q. Do you have access to the internet? If YES: is at home or at work? At home only? At work only? At home and at work? If NO: does that mean you know practically nothing about the internet? Change (percent) User Aware Knows nothing 4.

5 TRENDS IN RUSSIAN INTERNET USE, % (% using internet) Source: Levada Center, nationwide surveys, ; Centre for the Study of Public Policy New Russia Barometer XVIII (2009). R 2 for trend line =.95; b=3.0 Compound annual growth rate=27% 5.

6 GROWTH: GHETTOIZATION OR OPENNESS? Source: European Foundation Quality of Life Survey (2007); Centre for the Study of Public Policy New Russia Barometer XVIII (2009). Russia Finland Russia Finland Knows some English No English % Adults

7 INTERNET USAGE IN EU COUNTRIES, % adults as users N users (million) Source: European Foundation Quality of Life Survey (2007).

8 POTENTIAL TO PARTICIPATE IN EUROPEAN PUBLIC SPACE Source: European Foundation for Quality of Life Survey, Interviews with 30,626 people in 27 European Union countries, aggregated and weighted according to national population. Doubly qualified: Knows some English and uses internet Doubly disqualified: neither 8.

9 EU CITIZENS BY PARTICIPATION IN PUBLIC SPACE, 2007 Source: European Foundation for Quality of Life Survey, Interviews with 30,626 people in 27 European Union countries, aggregated and weighted according to national population. Qualified, English first language=Knows English very well, uses the internet, and is resident in the United Kingdom or Ireland; Qualified, English second language=Knows at least some English and uses internet; English only, no internet=Knows at least some English but does not use internet; Internet, no English=Uses internet but does not know any English; No participation=Neither knows any English nor uses the internet. 9.

10 10. LANGUAGE PLUS UNDERSTANDING EQUALS SOFT POWER 1.Modern information technology is spreading information more widely than ever before in history. Joseph Nye But information without understanding is hard or soft ignorance. Richard Rose 2. Knowledge of a language can be a crude indicator of understanding national context. 3.Equilibrium of soft power when H (hegemon) and Bs have equal information and knowledge of the other's language. 4. Disequilibrium if either H or B lacks information (unlikely in Internet age) or if either H or B lacks understanding. a. Low incentive for Hegemon H to understand context/ language of the Bs in its system b. High incentive for Bs to understand H. 5. Asymmetries of understanding give B soft power vis a vis hard power of H.

11 HOME LANGUAGE OF GLOBAL INTERNET USERS, Source: Calculated from data at International Telecommunications Union, 2010, ICT Statistics Database, D/icteye/Indicators/Indicators.aspx# (accessed 11 February 2010)http://www.itu.int/ITU- D/icteye/Indicators/Indicators.aspx#

12 TRENDS IN INTERNET USE BY HOME LANGUAGE, (millions of users) Source: Calculated from data at International Telecommunications Union, 2010, ICT Statistics Database, D/icteye/Indicators/Indicators.aspx# (accessed 11 February 2010)http://www.itu.int/ITU- D/icteye/Indicators/Indicators.aspx# 12. English Chinese Other


Download ppt "CSPP European University Institute, Florence THE POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS OF INTERNET DIFFUSION Professor Richard Rose Director, Centre for the Study of."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google