Presentation on theme: "PUTIN IN PERSPECTIVE PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE FBA University of Strathclyde www.cspp.strath.ac.uk www.RussiaVotes.org SCOTTISH RUSSIA FORUM Edinburgh 22."— Presentation transcript:
PUTIN IN PERSPECTIVE PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE FBA University of Strathclyde SCOTTISH RUSSIA FORUM Edinburgh 22 March 2012
Notes: n.a.: The party did not stand in the 2011 election. 1 In 2011 and 2007 all 450 seats were assigned by the largest remainder method to lists of parties winning a minimum of 7.0 percent of the national vote. 2 Created in 2008 on the basis of three liberal parties Civic Strength, Democratic Party of Russia and Union of Right Forces. 3 Part of a bloc with Party of Pensioners. Source: Central Electoral Commission, accessed
PRELIMINARY RESULT OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 4TH MARCH 2012 Votes% Electorate Electorate109,860,331 Invalid votes836, Valid votes70,864, Total votes71,701, % Total Vote Vladimir Putin, United Russia45,602, Gennady Zyuganov, KPRF12,318, Mikhail Prokhorov, Ind.5,722, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, LDPR4,458, Sergei Mironov, Fair Russia 2,763, Source: Central Electoral Commission, "Dannie o predvarytelnyh itogah golosovania."http://www.vybory.izbirkom.ru, accessed 13 March. 4
5 EVALUATION OF CURRENT REGIME 3b. Here is a scale ranking how well our system of government works. The top, plus 100, is the best and the bottom, minus 100, is the worst. Where on this scale would you put our current system of government? Positive Negative Percent responding %
6 WHAT MATTERS FOR REGIME SUPPORT: FOUR HYPOTHESES Differences in regime support depend on 1. Socialization: What individuals have learned from their roles in society. 2. Politics: How individuals evaluate the performance of political institutions. 3. Economics: How individuals evaluate household and national economic conditions. 4. Time: When individuals make evaluations and how long the new regime has been in place.
7 EVALUATION OF CURRENT ECONOMIC SYSTEM 1b. Here is a scale ranking how well an economy works. The top, plus 100, is the best and the bottom, minus 100, is the worst. Where on this scale would you put our current economic system? Percent responding Positive Negative %
8 WHAT'S CHANGED? Not the economy: GDP growth in 2011: 4.2% Not corruption. Russia still low by Transparency International standards New middle class?
9 HOW TYPICAL ARE THE DEMONSTRATORS? Demonstrators Moscovites Russians % % Age under 3550%34% University education83%46% 39% Income good72%52% 23% Duma vote Yabloko37% 7% 3% United R<1%18% 49% Source: Levada Centre surveys, December, 2011
10 HOW MUCH SYMPATHY FOR THE DEMONSTRATORS
11 HOW MUCH SYMPATHY FOR VLADIMIR PUTIN?
12 HOW PRACTICAL ARE THE DEMANDS OF DEMONSTRATORS? Annul elections ? Get rid of corruption ?