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1. IN PLACE OF POST-COMMUNIST STUDIES: FROM TRANSITION TO ARRIVAL PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE Director, Centre for the Study of Public Policy George Washington.

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Presentation on theme: "1. IN PLACE OF POST-COMMUNIST STUDIES: FROM TRANSITION TO ARRIVAL PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE Director, Centre for the Study of Public Policy George Washington."— Presentation transcript:

1 1. IN PLACE OF POST-COMMUNIST STUDIES: FROM TRANSITION TO ARRIVAL PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE Director, Centre for the Study of Public Policy George Washington University 17 November 2008 UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08

2 2.

3 3.STAGES OF TRANSFORMATION--AND ITS AFTERMATH 1. The prior equilibrium: stable but not durable 2. Disruption: Polity, Economy, Society, State. 3. Legacy: an anti-modern party-state 4. Bottom up responses: Coping strategies; adaptation; opportunities 5. New equilibrium: A stable state is not a static state 6. Divergence between European studies and Post-Soviet studies UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08

4 4. MAKING PROGRESS AND FALLING BEHIND 19491960197019801989Change Female life expectancy (years) Germany: East6972 7576 7 Germany: West677273767912 Austria677273767912 Czechoslovakia6573 747510 Hungary637072737411 Poland62707375 13 Sources: UN, World Health, OECD health statistics; UN Demographic Yearbook, 1979, special historical supplement; UNICEF International Child Development Centre, Children at Risk in Central and Eastern Europe, 1997, p. 123. UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08

5 5. MODERN AND ANTI-MODERN SOCIETIES COMPARED ModernAnti-modern Rule of lawYes, bureaucraticArbitrary, political OpennessTransparentOpaque SignalsPrices, lawsFalse accounts, bribes, personal contacts Cause and effectPredictableUncertain OutputEfficientInefficient

6 6. CEE ASPIRATIONS: RETURN TO MITTELEUROPA CzechoslovakiaHungaryPolandAverage %% Germany31383735 Sweden32342129 United States14103018 Italy9906 France5275 Britain3333 Other6223 Soviet Union0100.3 Source: Freedom House, Democracy, Economic Reform and Western Assistance: Data Tables, 1991, p. 154. UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08

7 7. RUSSIAN ASPIRATIONS Q. We often hear the following words. What feelings do they evoke? Source: Centre for the Study of Public Policy, New Russia Barometer, 1992. Those saying difficult to answer are not shown. % Negative % Positive Freedom 4% One and indivisible Russia 5% Christianity 3% Glasnost (Openness) 16% Capitalism 28% Socialism 33% Perestroika 45% (Restructuring) Marxism- Leninism 37% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08

8 8. OPPORTUNITY: FREEDOM Source: Richard Rose, Wolfgang Zapf and Wolfgang Seifert, Germans in Comparative Perspective, 1993. East German evaluation of policies of former regime, Federal Republic: Social security Freedom to say what you think Freedom of religious worship UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08

9 9. ECONOMIC SHOCK TO OFFICIAL ECONOMIES Source: European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Transition Report 2001: Energy in Transition, 2001, Table A.3.1, p. 59. % 1990 GDP Poland Slovenia Slovakia Hungary Czech R. Estonia Romania Bulgaria Lithuania Russia Latvia UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08

10 10. ECONOMIC RECOVERY Source: EBRD, Transition Report, 2001, 2007; 2006 figures are based on estimates, 2007 figures on forecasts. % 1990 real GDP Pol Slve Svk Hun Cze Est Rom Bul Lith Lat Gross domestic product 1990: 100 UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08

11 11. IMPROVEMENTS IN HEALTH Male life expectancy in years 1990 Fall (year)Peak (year)2005 New EU countries Slovenia69.4 0+3.8 (2003)73.2 Czech Republic68.1 0+4.0 (2001)72.0 Poland66.5 -0.4 (1991)+4.3 (2005)70.8 Slovakia66.6 0+3.5 (2005)70.1 Bulgaria68.1 -1.0 (1995)+0.9 (2005)69.0 Hungary65.1 -0.6 (1993)+3.5 (2004)68.6 Romania66.6 -1.4 (1997)+2.2 (2005)68.2 Estonia64.6 -3.5 (1995)+2.7 (2005)67.3 Latvia64.2 -3.5 (1994)+2.9 (2004)67.1 Lithuania66.4 -3.8 (1994)+0.4 (2000) 66.4 Post-Soviet countries Belarus66.3 -4.1 (1999)-2.9 (2000)62.9 Ukraine66.0 -5.0 (1996)-3.0 (1998)62.2 Russia63.8 -6.2 (1994)-2.5 (1998)58.9 Source: MONEE project, Innocenti Social Monitor (2007), Table 4.3. Latest figures for Latvia and Lithuania are from 2004. UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08

12 12. NORMALIZATION IN RUSSIA Q. Do you think Russian life today is that of a normal society? 2000a20012003a200420052007a2008Change %%%% Definitely2 91510 1932 +30 Fairly11132518 262732+21 Normal13214028364664+51 Only a little5450404549 40 26-28 Not at all3329202715 1410-23 Not normal87796072645436-51 Source: Centre for the Study of Public Policy, New Russia Barometer. UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08

13 13. CHALLENGE TO GOVERNANCE WITHIN THE EUROPEAN UNION Transparency International Corruption Index Denmark, Finland 9.4 Sweden 9.3 Netherlands 9.0 Luxembourg, United Kingdom 8.4 Austria 8.1 Germany 7.8 OLD EU 15 MEAN 7.6 Ireland 7.5 France 7.3 Belgium 7.1 Spain 6.7 Portugal 6.5 Italy 5.2 Greece 4.6 6.6 Slovenia 6.5 Estonia 5.8 (Malta) 5.3 Hungary, (Cyprus) 5.2 Czech Republic 5.0 MEAN OF NEW EU 4.9 Slovakia 4.8 Latvia, Lithuania 4.2 Poland 4.1 Bulgaria 3.7 Romania Old EU members New EU members 1 Most corrupt 10 Highest integrity Source: Transparency International, TI Corruption Perceptions Index 2007, www.transparency.org. Accessed 20 May 2008. UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08

14 14. DIVERGENCE OF POST-COMMUNIST STATES Freedom House rating Perception of Corruption Index Sources: perception of corruption index: Transparency International, 2007; Freedom House rating: Freedom House, 2007. Sve Est Hun Cze New EU Post-Soviet Svk Lat, Lit Pol Bul Rom Arm Aze, Kaz, Taj Bel Geo Mol Rus Ukr Uzb Tur Kyr UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08


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