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1. IN PLACE OF POST-COMMUNIST STUDIES: FROM TRANSITION TO ARRIVAL PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE Director, Centre for the Study of Public Policy George Washington.

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Presentation on theme: "1. IN PLACE OF POST-COMMUNIST STUDIES: FROM TRANSITION TO ARRIVAL PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE Director, Centre for the Study of Public Policy George Washington."— Presentation transcript:

1 1. IN PLACE OF POST-COMMUNIST STUDIES: FROM TRANSITION TO ARRIVAL PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE Director, Centre for the Study of Public Policy George Washington University 17 November 2008 UGWT-Nov08.ppt

2 2.

3 3.STAGES OF TRANSFORMATION--AND ITS AFTERMATH 1. The prior equilibrium: stable but not durable 2. Disruption: Polity, Economy, Society, State. 3. Legacy: an anti-modern party-state 4. Bottom up responses: Coping strategies; adaptation; opportunities 5. New equilibrium: A stable state is not a static state 6. Divergence between European studies and Post-Soviet studies UGWT-Nov08.ppt

4 4. MAKING PROGRESS AND FALLING BEHIND Change Female life expectancy (years) Germany: East Germany: West Austria Czechoslovakia Hungary Poland Sources: UN, World Health, OECD health statistics; UN Demographic Yearbook, 1979, special historical supplement; UNICEF International Child Development Centre, Children at Risk in Central and Eastern Europe, 1997, p UGWT-Nov08.ppt

5 5. MODERN AND ANTI-MODERN SOCIETIES COMPARED ModernAnti-modern Rule of lawYes, bureaucraticArbitrary, political OpennessTransparentOpaque SignalsPrices, lawsFalse accounts, bribes, personal contacts Cause and effectPredictableUncertain OutputEfficientInefficient

6 6. CEE ASPIRATIONS: RETURN TO MITTELEUROPA CzechoslovakiaHungaryPolandAverage %% Germany Sweden United States Italy9906 France5275 Britain3333 Other6223 Soviet Union Source: Freedom House, Democracy, Economic Reform and Western Assistance: Data Tables, 1991, p UGWT-Nov08.ppt

7 7. RUSSIAN ASPIRATIONS Q. We often hear the following words. What feelings do they evoke? Source: Centre for the Study of Public Policy, New Russia Barometer, Those saying difficult to answer are not shown. % Negative % Positive Freedom 4% One and indivisible Russia 5% Christianity 3% Glasnost (Openness) 16% Capitalism 28% Socialism 33% Perestroika 45% (Restructuring) Marxism- Leninism 37% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% UGWT-Nov08.ppt

8 8. OPPORTUNITY: FREEDOM Source: Richard Rose, Wolfgang Zapf and Wolfgang Seifert, Germans in Comparative Perspective, East German evaluation of policies of former regime, Federal Republic: Social security Freedom to say what you think Freedom of religious worship UGWT-Nov08.ppt

9 9. ECONOMIC SHOCK TO OFFICIAL ECONOMIES Source: European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Transition Report 2001: Energy in Transition, 2001, Table A.3.1, p. 59. % 1990 GDP Poland Slovenia Slovakia Hungary Czech R. Estonia Romania Bulgaria Lithuania Russia Latvia UGWT-Nov08.ppt

10 10. ECONOMIC RECOVERY Source: EBRD, Transition Report, 2001, 2007; 2006 figures are based on estimates, 2007 figures on forecasts. % 1990 real GDP Pol Slve Svk Hun Cze Est Rom Bul Lith Lat Gross domestic product 1990: 100 UGWT-Nov08.ppt

11 11. IMPROVEMENTS IN HEALTH Male life expectancy in years 1990 Fall (year)Peak (year)2005 New EU countries Slovenia (2003)73.2 Czech Republic (2001)72.0 Poland (1991)+4.3 (2005)70.8 Slovakia (2005)70.1 Bulgaria (1995)+0.9 (2005)69.0 Hungary (1993)+3.5 (2004)68.6 Romania (1997)+2.2 (2005)68.2 Estonia (1995)+2.7 (2005)67.3 Latvia (1994)+2.9 (2004)67.1 Lithuania (1994)+0.4 (2000) 66.4 Post-Soviet countries Belarus (1999)-2.9 (2000)62.9 Ukraine (1996)-3.0 (1998)62.2 Russia (1994)-2.5 (1998)58.9 Source: MONEE project, Innocenti Social Monitor (2007), Table 4.3. Latest figures for Latvia and Lithuania are from UGWT-Nov08.ppt

12 12. NORMALIZATION IN RUSSIA Q. Do you think Russian life today is that of a normal society? 2000a a a2008Change %%%% Definitely Fairly Normal Only a little Not at all Not normal Source: Centre for the Study of Public Policy, New Russia Barometer. UGWT-Nov08.ppt

13 13. CHALLENGE TO GOVERNANCE WITHIN THE EUROPEAN UNION Transparency International Corruption Index Denmark, Finland 9.4 Sweden 9.3 Netherlands 9.0 Luxembourg, United Kingdom 8.4 Austria 8.1 Germany 7.8 OLD EU 15 MEAN 7.6 Ireland 7.5 France 7.3 Belgium 7.1 Spain 6.7 Portugal 6.5 Italy 5.2 Greece Slovenia 6.5 Estonia 5.8 (Malta) 5.3 Hungary, (Cyprus) 5.2 Czech Republic 5.0 MEAN OF NEW EU 4.9 Slovakia 4.8 Latvia, Lithuania 4.2 Poland 4.1 Bulgaria 3.7 Romania Old EU members New EU members 1 Most corrupt 10 Highest integrity Source: Transparency International, TI Corruption Perceptions Index 2007, Accessed 20 May UGWT-Nov08.ppt

14 14. DIVERGENCE OF POST-COMMUNIST STATES Freedom House rating Perception of Corruption Index Sources: perception of corruption index: Transparency International, 2007; Freedom House rating: Freedom House, Sve Est Hun Cze New EU Post-Soviet Svk Lat, Lit Pol Bul Rom Arm Aze, Kaz, Taj Bel Geo Mol Rus Ukr Uzb Tur Kyr UGWT-Nov08.ppt


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