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Centre for the Study of Public Policy www.abdn.ac.uk/cspp CSP P 1. THE CHANGING NATURE OF EUROPE: A POST-TRANSFORMATION ANALYSIS PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE.

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Presentation on theme: "Centre for the Study of Public Policy www.abdn.ac.uk/cspp CSP P 1. THE CHANGING NATURE OF EUROPE: A POST-TRANSFORMATION ANALYSIS PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE."— Presentation transcript:

1 Centre for the Study of Public Policy www.abdn.ac.uk/cspp CSP P 1. THE CHANGING NATURE OF EUROPE: A POST-TRANSFORMATION ANALYSIS PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE Director, Centre for the Study of Public Policy University of Heidelberg 15 May 2009

2 2. WHAT IS EUROPE WHEN? ALTERNATIVE 20th CENTURY DEFINITIONS OF EUROPE 1900: UNDEMOCRATIC MULTI-NATIONAL EMPIRES. E.g. Tsarist, Prussian, Habsburg, etc. 1919: VERSAILLES TREATY: Undemocratic nation-states. 1948: IRON CURTAIN. Democratic nation-states = Western Europe Socialist "democracy" = Eastern Europe in Soviet bloc Mitteleuropa disappears 1989: BERLIN WALL FALLS. Central Europe re-appears. More nation-states recognised. Democracy remains. (See R Rose, What Is Europe (Pearson, Longman, 1996)

3 3.

4 4. STAGES OF TRANSFORMATION--AND ITS AFTERMATH 1. The legacy of an anti-modern party-state 2. Disruption of Polity, Economy, Society, State 3. Bottom up responses: Coping strategies and adaptation 4. Seizing opportunities 5. Q. Where are we now? A. A stable state –but not a static state

5 5. MAKING PROGRESS AND FALLING BEHIND. 19491960197019801989Change Female life expectancy (years) Germany: East6972 7576 7 Germany: West677273767912 Austria677273767912 Czechoslovakia6573 747510 Hungary637072737411 Poland62707375 13 Sources: UN, World Health, OECD health statistics; UN Demographic Yearbook, 1979, special historical supplement; UNICEF International Child Development Centre, Children at Risk in Central and Eastern Europe, 1997, p. 123.

6 6. ASPIRATION: RETURN TO MITTELEUROPA CzechoslovakiaHungaryPolandAverage %% Germany31383735 Sweden32342129 United States14103018 Italy9906 France5275 Britain3333 Other6223 Soviet Union0100.3 Source: Freedom House, Democracy, Economic Reform and Western Assistance: Data Tables, 1991, p. 154.

7 7. MORE FREEDOM IN POST-COMMUNIST COUNTRIES SpeechJoinTravelNo fearInterest Religion Avg. org. arrestpolitics (% feeling freer now than under Communist regime) New EU countries Bulgaria9095 889798 94 Romania94 90819295 91 Czech Republic 8490 96738494 87 Slovakia8288 628096 83 Lithuania8790 68668991 82 Estonia9088 69638382 79 Hungary7381 7659na83 74 Poland8378 75716970 74 Latvia8281 40498082 69 Slovenia7482 62545977 68 Post-Soviet countries Ukraine7976 49426084 65 Belarus7374 48375787 63 Russia7377 47296283 62 Source: Centre for the Study of Public Policy, New Europe Barometer, 1993, including Belarus, Ukraine; New Russia Barometer, 1993.

8 8. ECONOMIC RECOVERY Source: EBRD, Transition Report, 2001, Economic Statistics and Forecasts, http://www.ebrd.com/country/sector/econo/stats/index.htm, last updated November 2008, accessed 18 April 2009; 2007 figures are estimates, 2008 figures forecasts. % 1990 real GDP Gross domestic product 1990: 100

9 9. IMPROVEMENTS IN HEALTH Male life expectancy in years 1990 Fall (year)Peak (year)2005 New EU countries Slovenia69.4 0+3.8 (2003)73.2 Czech Republic68.1 0+4.0 (2001)72.0 Poland66.5 -0.4 (1991)+4.3 (2005)70.8 Slovakia66.6 0+3.5 (2005)70.1 Bulgaria68.1 -1.0 (1995)+0.9 (2005)69.0 Hungary65.1 -0.6 (1993)+3.5 (2004)68.6 Romania66.6 -1.4 (1997)+2.2 (2005)68.2 Estonia64.6 -3.5 (1995)+2.7 (2005)67.3 Latvia64.2 -3.5 (1994)+2.9 (2004)67.1 Lithuania66.4 -3.8 (1994)+0.4 (2000) 66.4 Post-Soviet countries Belarus66.3 -4.1 (1999)-2.9 (2000)62.9 Ukraine66.0 -5.0 (1996)-3.0 (1998)62.2 Russia63.8 -6.2 (1994)-2.5 (1998)58.9 Source: MONEE project, Innocenti Social Monitor (2007), Table 4.3. Latest figures for Latvia and Lithuania are from 2004.

10 10. DIVERGENCE OF POST-COMMUNIST STATES Freedom House rating Perception of Corruption Index Sources: perception of corruption index: Transparency International, 2007; Freedom House rating: Freedom House, 2007. Sve Est Hun Cze New EU Post-Soviet Svk Lat, Lit Pol Bul Rom Arm Aze, Kaz, Taj Bel Geo Mol Rus Ukr Uzb Tur Kyr

11 11. CHALLENGE TO GOVERNANCE WITHIN THE EUROPEAN UNION Transparency International Corruption Index Denmark, Finland 9.4 Sweden 9.3 Netherlands 9.0 Luxembourg, United Kingdom 8.4 Austria 8.1 Germany 7.8 OLD EU 15 MEAN 7.6 Ireland 7.5 France 7.3 Belgium 7.1 Spain 6.7 Portugal 6.5 Italy 5.2 Greece 4.6 6.6 Slovenia 6.5 Estonia 5.8 (Malta) 5.3 Hungary, (Cyprus) 5.2 Czech Republic 5.0 MEAN OF NEW EU 4.9 Slovakia 4.8 Latvia, Lithuania 4.2 Poland 4.1 Bulgaria 3.7 Romania Old EU members New EU members 1 Most corrupt 10 Highest integrity Source: Transparency International, TI Corruption Perceptions Index 2007, www.transparency.org. Accessed 20 May 2008.

12 12.ALTERNATIVE INSTITUTIONAL DEFINITIONS OF EUROPE Democracy essential COUNCIL OF EUROPE: 41 members. Democratic governance and freedoms, subject to occasional political pressures. EUROPEAN UNION: 27 members. Democratic governance and single Europe market. Money EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK: 12 members. Common currency, interest rates EUROPEAN BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT: 61 countries financing development from Central Europe to Central Asia + Turkey. Guns NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization): 26 members + ? American-led security alliance against Soviet Union. OSCE (Organization for Security & Cooperation in Europe). 55 members from Albania to USA and Uzbekistan. Conflict prevention, crisis management and post-conflict management in Europe.

13 13. NATIONAL CLUSTERS OF MEMBERSHIPS DEMOCRACY, MONEY & GUNS. Some old member states of European Union, e.g. ITALY, France, Germany and Benelux countries are all in EU, ECB, and NATO. DEMOCRACY & MONEY (belong to EU and ECB) but NO GUNS (Not NATO). Austria, Finland, Ireland. DEMOCRACY & GUNS (EU and NATO) but not in Eurozone. Britain, Denmark, + new EU member states which are supposed to join Eurozone DEMOCRATIC but outside EU and ECB: Norway (in NATO). Switzerland (outside NATO)

14 14. GLOBAL INSTITUTIONS WITH MANY EUROPEAN MEMBERS OECD. Includes Japan, Australia, Korea, USA, Mexico and Turkey. WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION. Global in scope. Alliances very sensitive to products, e.g. grain, cheap textiles, steel as well as geography. INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. A central banker to central banks from Britain to the poorest countries. WORLD BANK. Economic aid for middle and low income countries promoting economic growth and human development. Becoming concerned with governance. UNITED NATIONS. Median member state is partly free. No economic powers. Security council vetoes limit peace-keeping role.


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