Presentation on theme: "Londons Housing Challenge 2062 Will McKee Chair Outer London Commission."— Presentation transcript:
Londons Housing Challenge 2062 Will McKee Chair Outer London Commission
50 Year Predictions I think there is a world market for maybe five computers - Chairman of IBM 1943 Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality in 10 years – CEO Vacuum Cleaner Company 1955.
50 Year Predictions We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out - Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962. We can close the books on infectious diseases – USA Surgeon General 1969.
Key Influences on Forecasting Demand Supply Other
Key Influences - Demand Population trends (birth rate + net in/out) Household formulation (size, numbers) Tenure preferences (rent or own) Ageing population? Locational preferences (urban/suburban) Mortgage availability (LTV, cost of deposit) Ratio between rents and incomes
Key Influences - Supply LU policy (density, brownfield, new towns) Infrastructure provision (travel, utilities) Capacity to build homes at net increase pa Cost (affordability, green requirements) Systemised building techniques Obsolescence of housing (age, floods) Public finance availability (grant, benefits)
Key Influences - Other Environmental issues (climate change) Technological advances (computers) Social acceptability (neighbours, density) Political structures (will housing stay local)
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