1. Office of Coast Survey / Coast Survey Development Lab Transition, Progress, Challenges and Future Directions Richard Patchen NOAA’S National Ocean Service IOOS SURA Shelf Hypoxia Meeting, 3-4 March 2011

2. Office of Coast Survey / Coast Survey Development Lab The Pathway from Research to Operations and Applications NOS CSDL actively manage these interfaces, through community modeling partnerships Research and Development Academia, IOOS Regional Associations, Research components of NOAA & other Fed Agencies Private Sector Evaluation and Testing, Development, Transition to Operations Operations Value Added Product Development IOOS SURA TESTBED

3. Office of Coast Survey / Coast Survey Development Lab CSDL Prototype Testbed: The Delaware Bay Model Evaluation Environment ROMS, POM, ADCIRC, FVCOM, ELCIRC, SELFE,.... COMMUNITY MODELS Cap e Henl open Ca pe Ma y Mau rice Rive r Brid geto n Model Hindcast Grids, Bathymetry, Environmental conditions Grids Bathymetry Metrics Historical Data Environmental conditions

4. Office of Coast Survey / Coast Survey Development Lab 1.CBOFS2 - original synoptic hindcast run (06/01/2003 - 08/31/2005) 2.As [1] but with river S = 0 3.As [1] but with river Q scaled with Wen Long's weights 4.As [1] but with river S = 0 and river Q scaled with Wen Long's weights 5.As [1] but with twice the number of vertical levels (same sigma formulation, Nz=40) 6.As [1] but with a nearly uniform vertical grid with the same number of levels (Nz=20) 7.As [1] but with ROMS 4th order Akima vertical T/S discretization & with vertical splines 8.As [1] but with ROMS 4th order Akima vertical T/S discretization & without vertical splines For 1. – 6., we used spline vertical advection in the vertical for T/S advection with vertical splines. Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia Team Model Parameter Evaluation --- Model Metrics

5. Office of Coast Survey / Coast Survey Development Lab Individual Port Model Systems Transition to a Regional Modeling Approach Regional Model Systems Modeling Issues 1.Regional/Basin Model Nesting 2.Data Assimilation 3.Expanded Need for Comprehensive Data Sets 4.Regional vs. Local Metrics IOOS SURA TESTBED

6. Office of Coast Survey / Coast Survey Development Lab Coupling of Basin Model to Shelf/Estuary Model IOOS SURA Shelf Hypoxia Team Activities 1.Investigate nesting algorithms/methodology, sensitivity and Robustness with Hetland’s MCH shelf model (ROMS) with Navy and NGOM 2.NOS’s Northern Gulf Operational Forecast System (NGOFS) (FVCOM) with Navy and NGOM

7. Office of Coast Survey / Coast Survey Development Lab Ecosystem Applications of Circulation Models Noxious biota - Sea nettle probabilities Salinity SST Likelihood of Chrysaora Hazardous Materials Transport Harmful Algal Blooms – Red Tide West Florida Shelf

8. Office of Coast Survey / Coast Survey Development Lab 3D Nested/Coupled Model Model Results Tracer patch method : Passive/Inert tracer evolution within ROMS Particle tracking method : CSDL’s Chesapeake Bay Oyster Larvae Tracker (CBOLT) Observed Initial PatchDigitized Initial Patch Initialization HAB patch 7-day Hindcast Need 3D velocities as 2D depth- averaged velocities miss near- shore upwelling behavior

9. Office of Coast Survey / Coast Survey Development Lab IOOS SURA Testbed Estuarine Hypoxia Team Model : examine hypoxia via DO using a 1- equation model with constant respiration (Malcolm Scully/ODU) Model Set-up : embed DO model within NOAA/NOS Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System (CBOFS) DO in ROMS is a passive/inert tracer Simulation : synoptic hindcast from June 01, 2003 - August 31, 2005 ICs and BCs : DO saturation from T and S [Weiss (1970)]; no river DO sources Computational Efficiency : 6- day sim./hour [MPI, IBM Power 6 cluster, 96 proc.] Const. resp. rate of 0.55 gO2/m3/day Fixed at saturation (surface also) Strategy – begin with simplest WQ model and then build up to complex models

10. Office of Coast Survey / Coast Survey Development Lab Total DO content (kg) diminishes during the summer months as expected Hypoxic volumes show agreement with those derived from CBP observations* Hypoxic zones present in deep, narrow channels during summer months * Courtesy of Malcolm Scully/ODU and Rebecca Murphy/JHU DO ≤ 2 mg/L at 1m above botm. DO ≤ 2 mg/L DO ≤ 1 mg/L DO ≤ 0.2 mg/L IOOS SURA Testbed Estuarine Hypoxia Team Preliminary Results

11. Office of Coast Survey / Coast Survey Development Lab NOS Work Plans  Import ChesROMS biological module (based on Fennel’s) into CBOSF2  Compare DO predictions (and others if available) from various models (e.g. Scully’s 1-term, Fennel’s and ICM)  Transition to operational ecological forecasting? IOOS SURA Testbed Estuarine Hypoxia Team

12. Office of Coast Survey / Coast Survey Development Lab NOS Work Plan  Evaluate the embedded biological models in FVCOM  Import Fennel’s model and its set-up for GOM into FVCOM  Model comparisons of various biological configuration and ROMS vs FVCOM  Transition to operational ecological forecasting? IOOS SURA Testbed Shelf Hypoxia Team

13. Office of Coast Survey / Coast Survey Development Lab Summary and Conclusions The IOOS SURA Testbed supports previous/ongoing efforts to evaluate new modeling approaches and metrics. The IOOS SURA Shelf Testbed is consistent with a transition from Port based Operational Forecast System to a Regional Approach by expanding effort of testing and validation of competing basin/shelf nesting approaches. The IOOS SURA Testbed accelerated efforts to evaluate various approaches to address ecological issues, i.e., Hypoxia