2Six Steps to Workforce Planning 1) Define Purpose of the Plan2) Map the Service Change and how it will impact on the workforce3) Assess demand for the workforce based on the service delivery model4) Assess supply of staff available now and in the future5) Develop and action plan to bridge gaps in demand and supply now and in the future6) Implement and review
3Step 1 – Defining the Plan PurposeProblems to resolve?What does plan aim to achieve?ScopeWhat organisations are covered by the plan?What types of staff are covered?What client groups are covered?TimescaleOwnershipWho owns the plan?Stakeholder involvement?
4What tools will help with Step 1? Stake holder mappingPESTLE analysis - key drivers for changeSWOT analysis
5h h h h h h h h h h h Power/Interest Matrix of Stakeholders Low High Level of Interest12345A. Minimal EffortB. Keep Informed1hhCYPDhService UsersAdult Social CareCSV/VolunteershCarers ForumhOffice for Third Sector2hSocial Enterprise UnithPower3C. Keep SatisfiedD. Key PlayersCTALD TeamhhCarershPCT/SHA4hSupporting People TeamStaff/TU’shCommissionersh5Elected MembershHighCodehAdvocates & SupportershBlocks & CriticshNeutral
6Continuum of Commitment Analysis Stake-holderObstructingNo CommitmentLet It HappenHelp it HappenMake it HappenAxOBX OCDX = CurrentlyO = Where we need them to be for successful changeBased on Beckhard & Harris (1987) Organisational Transitions: Managing Complex Change. For more information see NHS Institute’s Social Movement Handbook “The Power of One – The Power of Many”
7Pestle Analysis - Key Drivers for Change PoliticalLegalEnvironmentalOrganisationEconomic FactorsSocial-Cultural FactorsTechnological
8Appraise your environment Use a SWOT AnalysisInvolve staff and other stakeholdersWhat do we do well?What could we do better?What are we not making the most of?What are we worried about?
9Step 2 – Map the Service Change Process of Service Re-design to meet service user choice, financial constraints, improved efficiency, changes in care through technologyCritical stage - focus on intended benefits and what is achievableKey to get wide stakeholder involvement in this stepCurrent baseline - of service costs and performance measuresWhat forces will support the change and what will resist it?What are the options? What scenarios for service change have been considered?What is the preferred service delivery model? Is it realistic given financial realities? Will it lead to improved outcomes for service users?
10What tools will help with Step 2? Scenario PlanningCulture web mappingTools for service improvement –LEAN methodologiesSystems thinkingAction learningAllowing space for new things to emerge
11Scenario Planning What is it? Provides a framework to consider what the future holdsIdentifies new risks and challenges in the future - helps to prepare for the unexpectedEnables you to expand your vision and think of alternative futuresMost useful when there is limited clarity on the futureHelps to balance intuition, judgment and factRecognises that forecasting is notoriously difficultWhere has it been used?Private sector companies, eg, Shell, Body Shop,NHSHow do you do it?There is no set approach - depends on organisation, situation etc…
12One approach to Scenario Planning Identify issues and forces that will shape the service and/or care pathway over a defined period of timeIdentify those that will have most impactIdentify those that give the most uncertaintyIdentify 2 issues that cause most worry from this list and map against each other, taking a positive and negative view of each oneConsider if there may be any wild cards coming into playThen consider what it will look like in each of the scenarios you have createdIdentify what this will mean for the service designIdentify what this will mean for the workforceIdentify what this will mean for service usersIdentify what this mean for partners along the delivery chainAre any common issues identified?What are the risk factors that you need to mitigate against?
13Demand and Supply Scenarios Quadrants SUPPLY for institutional care RISESSpecialist GrowthSpecialised provision refines & matches rising demand in specialist areas. Supports maximising independence choice and control.Mixed bag – Whose vision?Some specialist provision grows but also mainstream institutional investment undermines choice & controlmaximisation.Markets Rule OK?Availability sucks in people to institutional placements.Perverse drivers and dysfunctional outcomes for people. xNewWorld ChoicesProviders diversify, innovate & respond. Supports different supply against rising demography & changing expectations.Good outcomesSUPPLY for institutional care FALLSDEMAND for institutional care HIGHDEMAND for institutional care LOW
14Scenario Planning – useful links: Improvement & Development Agency for Local Government (IDeA) –Shell -
15Culture Web MappingThe way we do things around here - very hard to changeTool which enables a group to:Identify what they “take for granted”Identify barriers to changeIdentify those things which will be very difficult to changeIdentify those things which need to changeDevelop practical ideas for implementing strategic changeThe way we do things can absorb all kinds of threats. The cultural system can easily absort threats and maintain the status quo. Often the more you try to change something, the more resistance you will face. Just think of a toddler or a teenager…. This means that the existing ways of doing things will persist.Key to making change is to change the work environment and ways of doing things so that over time people can see the value of the change. Identify the successes along the way and celebrate them.
17Cultural “From – To” Table Example Difficulty getting staff to work as a teamStaff calling in on their day off to help achieve the services targetsStaff bringing problems and complaints to manager to sort“This was the problem and this is what we’ve done about it”Clients told when to get out of bedClients able to choose when to get up in the morning
18Step 3 – Assess Workforce Demand Assess current & future demand for servicesJoint Strategic Needs AssessmentPOPPI dataSAS dataWhat is the impact of service re-design - on tasks and role design?What is the impact of new technology - on tasks and role design?What tasks could be better performed elsewhere in the delivery chain for the care pathway?What achieves the best outcomes for service users?Review this once you have completed Step 4 - how realistic is your new service model?
19What tools will help with Step 3? Demand forecastingRatio AnalysisTrend analysisCost analysisBenchmarkingproductivity level comparison, internal and externalSystems thinkingRole re-designAiming to achieve a picture of the sort of workforce you will require - numbers and skills
20Step 4 – Assess Workforce Supply The current workforce - what are the key characteristics of it?Workforce forecasting - internal and external supply of workersOptions for increasing supply?Options for working differently?Workforce characteristics - key data - (handout)Workforce forecasting - more detail later.Options to increase supply - eg, action to reduce sickness absence, new types of role, retention, morale - to increase productivity…
21Key Steps in Internal Supply Forecasting Obtain data on current workforce numbers and skills in each skills cluster/occupational group for whom forecast is to be generatedAnalyse each group by age, length of service, diversity classification, current performance, future potentialForecast future ‘wastage’ (i.e. losses) based on trends in past turnover and estimates of the likelihood that these will continueProject retirementsLook at past trends in transfer/promotion out of the occupational group to other occupational groups in the organisationNeed to ensure correct segmentation of the workforce - group by group approach. Important that you don’t lose issues in averages.
22External Supply Forecasting Research into skills shortages and recruitment difficultiesTrends and projections in the educational output of people with the relevant skills and qualifications (possibly locally, nationally and internationally)Trends in population movements in the area(s) concerned or wider migratory patterns nationally or internationallyCompetitive factors in the labour market, locally or more widelyChanging expectations about work and working conditions or benefitsPay rates operating in the local labour market
23Step 5 – Developing an Action Plan Gap analysisPriority planningAction planningRisks to achieving the outcomesManaging the changeGap - what changes are needed to the current workforce? Do you need to do a gap analysis for each scenario?Gaps wil be qualitative as well as quantitative - skills/capabilities. May include need for performance shift.Need to decide whether you can live with any of the gaps that you identify - and could you mitigate those gaps through other routes - include risk management.Priorities - what are the key hotspots that need the most significant change - where are the quick wins? What will have most impact?Think about priorities for action planning based on impact on service users….Managing the change - needs careful thought. Involvement of staff from the start will help. Role redesign - allow plenty of time for the discussions. Helpful to some extent to let things emerge over time depending on what you are going to do. Burning platform - financial crisis - now is a good time to facilitate change, acceptance of cultural change. Trade unions etc…
24Internal strategies (‘grow’ your own) could involve: Work restructuring and skills changeChanging (eg flexible) work patternsTraining and developmentRetrainingPromotion/succession plansRedeploymentRedundancy
25External strategies (‘buy in’) could involve: External recruitment of qualified staffExternal recruitment of trainee staffOther measures to influence supply, such as educational sponsorship
26Menu of recruitment and retention options available to councils Strategic partneringShared servicesOutsourcingBranding – ‘employer of choice’Forecast supply and demandWork across organisationsEmployability of local workforceRetain local workforceOutward facingBetter use of agency staffPay and benefitsE-recruitmentFlexible workingReduce sickness absenceScenario planningTarget under-represented groupsBalance workforce profileTotal rewards packageTechnology i.e mobile workingInward facingShort TermLong Term
27Step 6 - Implementation, Monitoring and Review Measuring progressRevisit Each Step - it is an iterative process
28Helpful Resources“Tomorrow’s People” - Audit Commission Report includes some group work exercises -“What does a Commissioning Framework Look Like?” - ADASS 2007- American website with some helpful resourcesImprovement and Development Agency website on workforce - some helpful examples of learning from integrated workforce planningSkills for Care -Skills for Health -South West Regional Efficiency & Improvement Partnership –Virginia McCririck, Transforming Adult Social Care Regional Implementation Lead for Workforce -Mobile contact