1. Winter sea ice variability in the Barents Sea C. Herbaut, M.-N. Houssais et A.-C. Blaizot LOCEAN, UPMC

2. Barents Sea Sea ice extent Surface circulation

3. January SAT - Sea ice concentration correlation map 1st SVD mode Outten and Esau, 2011 Motivation Winter sea ice in the Barents Sea impacts on climate of Northern Europe ( Yang and Christensen 2012, Petoukhov et Semenov, 2010, Outten and Esau, 2011,... )

4. Pavlova et al., 2013 SLP (2007) Southerly wind anomaly  Reduced sea ice extent Surface wind (Pavlova and Pavlov, 2013). Mechanisms of winter Barents Sea sea ice area variability

5. Arthun et al., 2012 BSO Heat Transport Barents Sea Ice Area Pavlova et al., 2013 SLP (2007) Atlantic Water transport (Arthun et al. 2012, Schlichtholz, 2011) Increased heat transport  decreased sea ice area (+ 2 years) Mechanisms of winter Barents Sea sea ice area variability Surface wind (Pavlova and Pavlov, 2013). Southerly wind anomaly  Reduced sea ice extent

6. Two modes of interannual variability : Northern mode and Eastern mode Winter Sea Ice Concentration (SSMR - SSM-I) 1979 2006 Std (1979-2011)

7. Two modes of interannual variability : Northern mode and Eastern mode Winter Sea Ice Concentration (SSMR - SSM-I) 1979 2006 Std (1979-2011) Northern Mode Eastern Mode Sea ice area R= 0.38

8.  Two distinct spatial patterns Regression of SIC on Northern Mode Index Regression of SIC on Eastern Mode Index Northern Mode Eastern Mode Northern and Eastern SIC modes Sea ice area

9. Impact of surface wind ERA-Interim winter (JFM) 10-m wind (1979-2011) Lag 0 Lag -1 year Regression on the Northern Mode Index

10.  Northern SIC mode associated with northerly winds Impact of surface wind ERA-Interim winter (JFM) 10-m wind (1979-2011) Lag 0 Lag -1 year Regression on the Northern Mode Index Min=-0.6 Min=-0.7 Correlation with meridional wind

11. Eastern SIC mode associated with easterly winds Regression on the Eastern Mode Index Correlation with zonal wind ERA-Interim winter (JFM) 10-m wind (1979-2011) Lag 0  Surface wind explains only 50% of the SIC variance : other forcings ? Min=-0.7

12. Model  Same patterns of variability but weaker variance in the model ORCA025 Arctic-Atlantic configuration, ERA-I forcing (1979-2011) Ice-ocean interactions in an ice-ocean model Northern Mode Eastern Mode R> 0.9 Sea ice area ---- ModelObservations ___ SIC Std Observations SIC Std

13. Climatology 1979-2011 Winter (JFM) sea ice drift

14. Climatology 1979-2011 Regression on the Northern Mode Index Winter (JFM) sea ice drift Regression on the Eastern Mode Index Eastern Mode : significant westward drift anomalies

15. Winter (JFM) ice production Regression on the Eastern Mode Index Climatology 1979-2011 Large ice melt anomalies (2 mm day -1 ) at the ice edge : Eastern mode : response to the eastward expansion of the ice edge

16. Winter (JFM) ice production Regression on the Northern Mode Index Regression on the Eastern Mode Index Climatology 1979-2011 Large ice melt anomalies (2 mm day -1 ) at the ice edge : Eastern mode : response to the eastward expansion of the ice edge Northern mode : response to the ocean heat advection ?

17. Ocean temperature at 110 m Ocean currents at 110 m Atlantic Water circulation Two branches of Atlantic Water: Northern branch : less intense

18. Heat transport through the western Barents Sea (BSO) Northern mode :  maximum correlation between BSO heat transport anomalies in fall and winter SIC anomalies in northern Barents Sea  no significant correlation at earlier lags Eastern mode :  no correlation with the heat transport through BSO Northern Mode Eastern Mode Correlation with Sea Ice Area modes

19. Ocean current anomalies at 110 m OND JFM (lag 0) Weakening of the northern branch of Atlantic Water in fall  Increased winter SIA in northern Barents Sea No clear link between winter BSO inflow and winter SIA in northern Barents Sea Regression on the Northern Mode Index (Seasonal lag)

20. Heat content in the western Barents Sea Northern mode :  Maximum correlation at lag 0  Persistence gives significant lagged correlations when heat content leads by up to 1 year Correlation with Sea Ice Area modes

21. Ocean temperature at 110 m Regression on the Northern Mode Index  Northern mode associated with a contemporary large scale pattern of intemediate temperature anomalies  Part of the winter temperature anomalies originate in previous spring Wind-driven anomalies (explaining lagged correlation of Northern mode with wind stress ?) AMJ JFM

22. Next What drives the varaibility of each? Advection of temperature anomalies Link with the Atmospheric modes

23. Regression of T 110 m on eastern SIA

24. Regresion of velocity at 110 m on the eastern SIA JFMOND (lag -1) Weakening the circulation of AW in the eastern Barents Sea  Increase northern SIA

25. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union 7th Framework Programme (FP7 2007-2013), under grant agreement n.308299 NACLIM www.naclim.euwww.naclim.eu