1. Where Are We Going, and Where Should We Be in Ten Years? Hofstra Labor & Employment Law J. Symposium on ERISA Preemption Panel on “Going Forward” March 13, 2009 by Jon Forman Alfred P. Murrah Professor of Law University of Oklahoma

2. Health Care Coverage of the Nonelderly, 2007 2 Source of CoverageMillionsPercentage Total population262.3100.0 Employment-based coverage 164.8 62.9 Individually Purchased 17.1 6.5 Public 48.6 18.5 Medicare 7.1 2.7 Medicaid 36.3 13.8 Military health care 8.4 3.2 No health insurance 45.0 17.1

3. Health Care Coverage of the Elderly, 2007 3 Source of CoverageMillionsPercentage Total population36.8100.0 Employment-based coverage 12.6 34.1 Individually Purchased9.5 25.9 Public34.5 93.7 Medicare34.3 93.2 Medicaid 3.3 8.9 Military health care 2.6 7.1 No health insurance 0.7 1.9

4. 4 Office of Management and the Budget, A New Era of Responsibility: Renewing America’s Promise (2009).

5. 5 Congressional Budget Office, Growth in Health Care Costs (January 31, 2008), Charts at 2.

6. 6 Congressional Budget Office, Growth in Health Care Costs (January 31, 2008), Charts at 6.

7. 7 Congressional Budget Office, Growth in Health Care Costs (January 31, 2008), Charts at 8.

8. 8 Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2008 to 2018 (January 23, 2008), Charts at 12.

9. 9 Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2008 to 2018 (January 23, 2008), Charts at 13.

10. 10 Jonathan Barry Forman & Yung-Ping [Bing] Chen, Optimal Retirement Age, in New York University Review of Employee Benefits and Compensation—2008, Volume II, Chapter 14 (2008).

11. 11 U.S. Government Accountability Office, Saving Our Future Requires Tough Choices Today (GAO-08-465CG, January 14, 2008), at 8.

12. 12 Majority Staff, Senate Budget Committee, Brief Analysis, President Obama’s FY 2010 Budget (February 27, 2009), http://budget.senate.gov/democratic/index.html.http://budget.senate.gov/democratic/index.html

13. PROSPECTS TO REFORM  Health Care Reform Generally  Little Chance for Expanded Remedies  Some Chance that We Allow the States to Regulate Plans  Some Chance of Moving Away from Employment-Based Coverage 13

14. 14 About the Author  Jonathan Barry Forman (“Jon”) is the Alfred P. Murrah Professor of Law at the University of Oklahoma College of Law, where he teaches courses on tax and pension law.  Professor Forman is also Vice Chair of the Board of Trustees of the Oklahoma Public Employees Retirement System (OPERS) and the author of Making America Work (Washington, DC: Urban Institute Press, 2006).  Prior to entering academia, Professor Forman served in all three branches of the federal government. He has a law degree from the University of Michigan and master’s degrees in economics and psychology.  Jon can be reached at jforman@ou.edu, (405) 325- 4779, or www.law.ou.edu/faculty/forman.shtml.jforman@ou.eduwww.law.ou.edu/faculty/forman.shtml