Presentation on theme: "Q1: Why, given their historical importance, are labour, migration & remittances frequently excluded from analyses of globalisation and IPE? (Sutcliffe)"— Presentation transcript:
Q1: Why, given their historical importance, are labour, migration & remittances frequently excluded from analyses of globalisation and IPE? (Sutcliffe) Q2: Is the current situation unsustainable? Where will the ageing OECD service economies get their labour? Why the political (electoral…) contradictions? (Bhagwati) Q3: What are the implications for global inequalities, poverty & development policies (remittances & impact on both home and host economies, World Bank 11)
1. Migration in an historical perspective: 2. Remittances: Definitions, arguments & (forgetting) history 3. Sources & Trends: The problems of measurement: Official statistics. –World Bank $530bn 2012?, LDCs = $406bn, Guesstimates, $700bn? –Unofficial channels: 4. How important are remittances? 5. Policy implications: Home govts: Host govts:
1. Migration in an historical perspective: Historical Factor Mobility (World Bank/WDR 09) slavery, indentured, outward European migration, 19-20c; push vs pull factors Post-45, Fordist migration 1990s service sector labour patterns (Sassen).
2. Remittances: Definitions Forgetting history ? (e.g. Eire, Italy, Spain) Sources: World Bank, Ratha – Links, BLE
3. Trends The problems of measurement: Official statistics. World Bank 2009 WDR WB $530 bn 2012?, LDCs = $406 bn Guesstimates, $700bn? Goods in kind. Unofficial channels: Money Transfer (eg Western Union), cash, Hawala
3. Trends (cont.) Escape state (banks, neo-liberal), a colossal, small number of transactions Immensely profitable –Citibank-Mexico, advertising campaigns, Difficult to research? Ask your migrant neighbours… –Guardian, – link on plan/moodle
4. How important are remittances? Relative to other finance (private capital, aid, FDI)? (See fig.1, World Bank Nov 2012) Source of foreign exchange, crucial means of debt payment, counter-cyclical? Rising and stable (crisis?) source of finance; borrowing & bonds (Latin America) Main recipients: Absolute terms / Remittances as % of GDP (Following slides, WB 2011)
5. Policy implications: Shifting perceptions of: impact on peoples lives within development policy on foreign exchange earnings and reserves, as well as govt finance, Home govts: new realism: Uganda, Kenya, Ghana Bonds, Securitization (Mexico, Turkey, Brazil) India, Incentives: dual nationality (NRI); vote; investment (generational change) bank, tax reforms, Social capital and infrastructure. (Somali tels, Hometown assns)
Negative remittances; war, conflict; distribution, gender, elites, social obligation Host govts: reducing costs, regulation (security?), reforming aid. Focus on reduction of costs –since 2005 DfID, WB site The aid industry and diasporas –DfID vs Home Office Towards joined-up govt? –Brain drains and UK labour needs
Policy implications? Towards joined-up govt? –Brain drains and UK labour needs –Policy argument: Manage migration to: –i) enhance development; –ii) rethink aid, its agencies and mentalities; –iii) accept migration & remitting as global social security?