1. The Case Study of Pirkanmaa Tom Frisk, Ämer Bilaletdin, Heikki Kaipainen & Jari Rauhala Pirkanmaa Regional Environment Centre Tampere, Finland P I R K A N M A A R E G I O N A L E N V I R O N M E N T C E N T R E

2. Pirkanmaa = Tampere Region Pirkanmaa Regional Environment Centre (PREC) is a governmental environment authority for Tampere Region. Tampere Helsinki River Kokemäenjoki drainage basin P I R K A N M A A R E G I O N A L E N V I R O N M E N T C E N T R E

3. Regional seminars for stakeholders (January 24-25, November 29, 2006, April, October 2007) International ASTRA workshop in Tampere, February 15-16, 2007) A case study concerning the effects of climate change on nutrient transport P I R K A N M A A R E G I O N A L E N V I R O N M E N T C E N T R E

4. In the case study, the impacts of climate change on nutrient (P, N) flows into lakes and to the Baltic Sea from the drainage basin of River Kokemäenjoki are estimated. Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea and inland waters is a major environmental problem in Finland. The reason for eutrophication is increased input of nutrients. Both phosphorus and nitrogen are important. In lakes, phosphorus is a more important eutrophying factor, whereas in the Baltic Sea nitrogen is generally considered to be more important. INTRODUCTION Tampere Helsinki River Kokemäenjoki drainage basin

5. GCM HadAM3H ECHAM4/OPYC3 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION WSFS (FEI) COVER TYPE AGRICULTURE WATER PROTECTION FORESTRY RUNOFF SOIL FROST SOIL MOISTURE CATCHMENT AREA LAKE PERCENTAGE SLOPE SOIL TYPE ASSESSED NUTRIENT LOADING IN CLIMATE CHANGE DIRECT INFLUENCE CONSTANT DATA GENERAL SCENARIOS

7. 28 sub-catchments 2 lake basins 5 river sections Advection-diffusion Semi-distributed Time step 1 day

8. Discharge at the outlet of River Kokemäenjoki catchment 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec m 3 s Present Climate HadAM3H A2 HadAM3H B2 ECHAM/OPYC3 A2 ECHAM/OPYC3 B2 Daily averages

9. Discharge at the outlet of River Kokemäenjoki catchment

10. Monthly relative changes to discharge from River Kokemäenjoki catchment to Baltic Sea

11. Next Step To implement water quality (simulations) into the modelling system i.e. Integration of hydrological, nutrient loading and lake & river section models

12. Dziękuję Tom Frisk Ämer Bilaletdin Heikki Kaipainen Jari Rauhala Pirkanmaa Regional Environment Centre P.O. Box 297 FIN-33101 Tampere Finland Telephone +358 20 490 104 Telefax +358 20 490 4000 Email: tom.frisk@ymparisto.fi emir.bilaletdin@ymparisto.fi heikki.kaipainen@ymparisto.fi jari.rauhala@ymparisto.fi URL www.environment.fi/pir

13. Temperature and precipitation changes in River Kokemäenjoki catchment (RCAO)

14. the Rossby Centre coupled Regional Climate Model RCAO two Global Climate Models : HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 and emissions scenarios (SRES A2 and B2). Climate modelling