1. Alabama Homeowners Insurance: History and Trends for Catastrophic Loss and Impacts on Profitability Governor’s Affordable Homeowners Insurance Commission Montgomery, AL December 12, 2011 Download at www.iii.org/presentations Robert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., CPCU, President & Economist Insurance Information Institute  110 William Street  New York, NY 10038 Tel: 212.346.5520  Cell: 917.453.1885  bobh@iii.org  www.iii.org

2. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 2 Presentation Outline Catastrophe Loss Analysis for Alabama Insurance Markets  Total Losses vs. Homeowners Insurance Line  Claim Values and Claim Counts  2011 Catastrophe Claim Analysis  1998-2011 Analysis Federal Disaster Declarations: 1953—2011  Alabama’s Long-Run Catastrophe Exposure History Spring 2011 Tornado and Severe Story Summary Quantification of Alabama’s Coastal Exposure Problem Profitability and Performance in Alabama’s Insurance Markets  Homeowners Insurance: Return on Net Worth, Loss Ratios & Premium Growth Catastrophe Insurance Markets: Alabama Impacts World Markets  Global & US Catastrophe loss Trends Reinsurance Market Overview  Higher Catastrophe Losses Can Pressure Pricing Property/Casualty Insurance Markets & Catastrophic Loss  Profitability  Underwriting Performance  Capital, Capacity and Financial Strength Q&A

3. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 3 Summary of Key Points Between 1998 and 2011, Insured Catastrophe Losses Across the State of Alabama Totaled $8.4 Billion Arising from Nearly 1.1 Million Claims  Home/Condos/Renters’ policies accounted for 67% ($5.6 bn) of dollars paid and 73% of the total number of claims; Commercial property accounts for the remainder. 2011 Was the Worst Year in AL History for Catastrophe Losses  Insured catastrophe losses totaled $3.2 bn arising from nearly 175,000 claims  Homeowners losses accounted for $1.826 bn (66%) of the total from 114,200 claims  Homeowners losses paid exceeded estimated premiums collected of by more than $400 million in 2011  The average cost of a homeowners catastrophe claim reached a record $15,989 in 2011 Alabama’s Homeowners Insurance Market is Unprofitable  Return on Net Worth (RNW) from 1990-2009 average -5.6%  RNW from 2000-2009 averaged -7.9%, ranking the state 43 rd out the 50 states  Inclusion of the 2011 storms could make AL close to the least profitable state AL Has the 7 th Highest Total Federal Disaster Declarations Since 1953 April 2011 Tornadoes Were the Most Expensive/Deadly in US History  Aggregated, this year’s spring storms are the 5 th largest insurance loss in US history AL Losses Have Impacted Overall US and Global (Re)Insurance Markets

4. 4 Insured Catastrophe Analysis for Alabama Insurance Markets: Focus on Homeowners’ Claims Alabama Has a Long History of Experience of Catastrophic Loss; Loss Data Are Trending Adversely

5. 2011 Catastrophe Losses in Alabama’s Homeowners Market Dwarf Premiums Paid Sources: Homeowners DPW for AL is III estimated based on assumed 5% growth over 2010 actual of $1.323 bn.; Catastrophe loss data is from PCS as of Dec. 7, 2011. ($ Billions) Insurers ROE in the AL Homeowners Line in 2011 Will be Negative by Several Hundred Percent 5 Catastrophe losses paid to homeowners in AL are estimated to exceed premiums collected for the line by $437 million or 31.5% in 2011

6. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 6 Value of Insured Catastrophe Losses in Alabama, by Segment, 1998–2011* *Data are current through Dec. 7, 2011. Source: PCS unit of ISO; Insurance Information Institute. ($ Millions) 2011 set a new record for catastrophe losses at $3.157 billion. 58% ($1.826B) of the losses paid went to homeowners, 42% to businesses Alabama is No Stranger to Catastrophe, but 2011 Was Far More Devastating Than Any Year in History $3,157 $76 $512 $206 $200$197 $1,478 $1,775 $185 $125 $100 $91 $33 $225 From 1998-2011 insurers paid $8.4 billion to nearly 1.1 million AL victims of catastrophes for damage to their homes and businesses

7. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 7 Number of Insured Catastrophe Claims in Alabama, by Segment, 1998–2011* *Data are current through Dec. 7, 2011. Source: PCS unit of ISO; Insurance Information Institute. Number of Claims 2011 was the costliest year on record and ranked 3 rd in terms of number of claims paid at 174,450. Nearly two- thirds (114,200) of the claims paid were to homeowners, 1/3 to businesses Insurers in Alabama Paid More than 55,000 Catastrophe Claims on Average Annually Between 1998 and 2011, Most to Homeowners 174,450 $76 122,700 21,500 16,000 53,750 179,400 226,000 52,900 26,300 32,000 12,400 18,805 115,470

8. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 8 Value of Alabama Insured Catastrophe Losses: Homeowners, 1998–2011* ($ Millions) 2011 homeowners claims set a new record at $1.826 billion in 2011 Insurers Paid an Average of $400 million per Year to More than 55,000 Homeowners in Alabama from 1998-2011 From 1998-2011 insurers paid $5.6 billion to nearly 775,000 AL victims of catastrophes for damage to their homes *Data are current through Dec. 7, 2011. Source: PCS unit of ISO; Insurance Information Institute.

9. 9 Number of Homeowners Catastrophe Losses Paid by Insurers in AL, 1998-2011* *Data are current through Dec. 7, 2011. Source: PCS unit of ISO; Insurance Information Institute calculations. 2011 saw the 3 rd largest number of homeowners claims since 1998 even though 2011 was the costliest year ever ($1.826 Bill). 2011 claims were more than double the 55,000 annual average since 1998. (Number of Claims Paid) Insurers in Alabama Paid Nearly 775,000 Catastrophe Claims Between 1998 and 2011 to Homeowners Across the State

10. 10 **Through Dec, 7, 2011. Source: PCS Division of ISO. 2011 Catastrophic Homeowners* Claim Activity in Alabama, by Event** Date Perils Avg. Pmt $ Total $ Pd. # Claims HO $ % HO # % *Includes all categories of dwelling policies, such as home, condo and renters’ policies 2011 YTD Totals Event Total 2011:Q1 Total Event Total 2011:Q2 Total 2011:Q3 Total Event Total 2011 has been the most expensive in history for insured catastrophe losses paid to Alabama homeowners. Payments totaled $1.826 billion arising from 114,200 claims

11. 11 Average Value of Insured Homeowners Catastrophe Loss Claims in AL, 1998-2011* Insured Catastrophe Losses to Homes in Alabama Are Volatile and Are Trending Upward *Data are current through Dec. 7, 2011. Source: PCS unit of ISO; Insurance Information Institute calculations. The average homeowners catastrophe claim reached a new record of $15,989 in 2011, more than double the average of $6,069 (+163%) from 1998-2010 (Cost of Average Personal Lines Claim

12. 12 Cumulative Value of Catastrophe Losses Paid by Insurers in Alabama, 1998-2011* Catastrophe Losses in Alabama Are High Relative to the Size of the State’s Economy and Population *Data are current through Dec. 7, 2011. Source: PCS unit of ISO; Insurance Information Institute calculations. Insurers have paid nearly $8.4 billion on almost 1.1 million catastrophe claims in Alabama since 1998. The trend in catastrophe losses began to accelerate in 2004. ($ Millions)

13. 13 Cumulative Number of Catastrophe Losses Paid by Insurers in Alabama, 1998-2011* The Number of Catastrophe Losses in Alabama Is High Relative to the Size of the State’s Economy and Population *Data are current through Dec. 7, 2011. Source: PCS unit of ISO; Insurance Information Institute calculations. Insurers have paid nearly 1.1 million catastrophe claims in Alabama valued at nearly $8.4 billion since 1998. The trend in catastrophe losses began to accelerate in 2004. (Number of Claims Paid)

14. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 14 Distribution of Catastrophe Insured Claims in AL, by Segment, 1998–2011* Value of Claims Paid Commercial 26.8% ( 283,170 Claims) Homeowners 73.2% (774,555 Claims) Number of Claims Paid Commercial 33.2% ($2.77 Bill) Homeowners 66.8% ($5.59 Bill) *Data are current through Dec. 7, 2011. Source: PCS unit of ISO; Insurance Information Institute calculations. 2/3 of the catastrophe claim dollars paid since 1998 were for damage to homes Nearly 3/4 of the catastrophe claims paid since 1998 were for damage to homes

15. 15 Federal Disaster Declarations: Trending Adversely Alabama Has the 7 th Highest Number of Federal Disaster Declarations From 1953 - 2011

16. Number of Federal Disaster Declarations, 1953-2011* *Through December 11, 2011. Source: Federal Emergency Management Administration: http://www.fema.gov/news/disaster_totals_annual.fema ; Insurance Information Institute.http://www.fema.gov/news/disaster_totals_annual.fema The Number of Federal Disaster Declarations Is Rising and Set a New Record in 2011 The number of federal disaster declarations set a new record in 2011, with 98 declarations through Dec 11. There have been 2,048 federal disaster declarations since 1953. The average number of declarations per year is 34 from 1953-2010, though that few haven’t been recorded since 1995.

17. 17 Federal Disasters Declarations by State, 1953 – Dec. 11, 2011: Highest 25 States Source: FEMA: http://www.fema.gov/news/disaster_totals_annual.fema; Insurance Information Institute.http://www.fema.gov/news/disaster_totals_annual.fema Over the past nearly 60 years, Texas has had the highest number of Federal Disaster Declarations AL has had 55 federal disaster declarations since 1953, nearly one per year, and has had 1 so far in 2011

18. 18 Federal Disasters Declarations by State, 1953 – Dec. 11, 2011: Lowest 25 States* *Includes Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia. Source: FEMA: http://www.fema.gov/news/disaster_totals_annual.fema; Insurance Information Institute.http://www.fema.gov/news/disaster_totals_annual.fema Over the past nearly 60 years, Wyoming, Utah and Rhode Island had the fewest number of Federal Disaster Declarations

19. Number of Federal Disaster Declarations In Alabama, 1953-2011* *Through December 11, 2011. Source: Federal Emergency Management Administration: http://www.fema.gov/news/disaster_totals_annual.fema ; Insurance Information Institute.http://www.fema.gov/news/disaster_totals_annual.fema The Number of Federal Disaster Declarations Spike in 2009 Was the Highest Ever, Mostly Associated with Tornadoes, Severe Storms, Straight Line Winds, Floods and Tropical Storm Ida The one federal disaster declaration in 2011 was associated with the severe tornado and severe storm outbreak in April There have been 55 federal disaster declarations in AL since 1953. The average number of declarations per year is 0.9 from 1953- 2011, though the number has been higher in recent years

20. 20 SPRING 2011 TORNADO & SEVERE STORM OUTBREAK 2011 Losses Are Putting Pressure on US P/C Insurance Markets

21. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 21 *2011 is preliminary data through December 4. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Storm Prediction Center, National Weather Service. Number of Tornadoes and Related Deaths, 1990 – 2011* Tornadoes have already claimed more than 500 lives There were 1,880 tornadoes recorded in the US by Dec. 4 Insurers Expect to Pay Approximately $2 Billion Each for the April 2011 Tornadoes in Alabama and a Similar Amount for the May Storms in Joplin

22. U.S. Tornado Count, 2005-2011* 22 Source: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/ *Through December 4.http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/ Deadly and costly April (AL)/ May (Joplin) spike There were 1,880 tornadoes in the US in 2011 through Dec. 4, far above average, but well below 2008’srecord

23. Location of Tornadoes in the US, January 1—December 5, 2011 Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center; http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2011_annual_summary.html#http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2011_annual_summary.html# 23 1,880 tornadoes killed 546 people through Dec. 5, including at least 340 on April 26 mostly in the Tuscaloosa area, and 130 in Joplin on May 22

24. Tornado Tracks by Enhanced Fujita (EF) Scale, January – July 2011 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 24 Source: NOAA at: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/2011-jan-jul.pnghttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/2011-jan-jul.png Alabama averaged 59 tornadoes per year from 2000-2010, but 128 from Jan. – July 2011, the highest in the country AL had the highest concentration of EF-3, 4 and 5 storms in 2011

25. Average Number of Tornadoes per Year, 2000-2010 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 25 Alabama averaged 59 tornadoes per year from 2000-2010 Source: NOAA at http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/ustormaps/2001-2010-states.pnghttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/ustormaps/2001-2010-states.png

26. Tornado by County, 1952-2010 26 Source: NOAA at http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/ustormaps/tornadoes-by-county.png *Through October 29.http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/ustormaps/tornadoes-by-county.png AL is quite vulnerable to tornadoes

27. Tornado Tracks by EF Scale, 1950-2010 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 27 Source: NOAA at: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/gis/svrgis/images/EF_tracks.gifhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/gis/svrgis/images/EF_tracks.gif Alabama has experiences every strength of tornado, including EF-5 storms

28. Location of Large Hail Reports in the US, January 1—December 5, 2011 Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center; http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2011_annual_summary.html#http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2011_annual_summary.html# 28 There were 9,413 “Large Hail” reports through Dec. 5, causing extensive damage to homes, businesses and vehicles

29. Location of Wind Damage Reports in the US, January 1—December 5, 2011 Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center; http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2011_annual_summary.html#http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2011_annual_summary.html# 29 There were 18,580 “Wind Damage” reports through Dec. 5, causing extensive damage to homes and, businesses

30. Severe Weather Reports, January 1—December 5, 2011 30 Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center; http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2011_annual_summary.html#http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2011_annual_summary.html# There have been 29,885 severe weather reports through Dec. 5; including 1,881 tornadoes; 9,413 “Large Hail” reports and 18,580 high wind events

31. Tornadoes accounted for just 6% of all Severe Weather Reports through October 13 but more than 500 deaths Number of Severe Weather Reports in US, by Type: January 1—December 5, 2011 Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center; http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2011_annual_summary.html#http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2011_annual_summary.html#

32. 32 Alabama’s 2011 Severe Loss Summary Tornadoes, Hail and Severe Thunderstorms Took their Toll

33. Severe Weather Reports in Alabama, January 1—December 5, 2011 33 Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center; http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2011_annual_summary.html#http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2011_annual_summary.html# ALABAMA Total Reports = 1,288 Tornadoes = 170 (Red) Hail Reports = 217 (Green) Wind Reports = 901 (Blue) There were 1,288 severe weather reports in AL through Dec. 5

34. Insurers Making a Difference in Impacted Communities Source: Insurance Information Institute 34 Destroyed home in Tuscaloosa. Insurers will pay some 133,000 claims totaling $3 billion across AL for Q2 damage, concentrated in the Tuscaloosa/ Birmingham areas Presentation of a check to Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox to the Tuscaloosa Storm Recovery Fund

35. 35 Coastal Exposure in Alabama Remains a Primary Concern Alabama’s Coastal Exposure Is Considerable Despite Its Small Coast

36. Total Value of Insured Coastal Exposure in 2007 ($ Billions) Source: AIR Worldwide Even though Alabama’s coast is small, the total value of insured coastal exposure was $92.5 billion in 2007

37. Insured Coastal Exposure As a % Of Statewide Insured Exposure In 2007 Source: AIR Worldwide Even though Alabama’s coast is small, coastal exposure accounts for 12.0% of all insured exposure in the state

38. Value of Insured Residential Coastal Exposure In 2007 ($ Billions) Source: AIR Worldwide Residential coastal exposure totaling $46.5 bill in Alabama accounts for about half the $92.5 billion in total coastal exposure

39. Population Growth Projections for Hurricane Exposed States (2000 to 2030) (000) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, accessed at http://www.census.gov/population/projections/PressTab1.xlshttp://www.census.gov/population/projections/PressTab1.xls By 2030, Alabama is expecting a population increase of 427,000

40. Value Of Insured Commercial Coastal Exposure 2007 ($ Billions) Source: AIR Worldwide Commercial coastal exposure totaling $46.0 bill in Alabama accounts for about half the $92.5 billion in total coastal exposure

41. 41 Profitability & Performance Analysis: Alabama Homeowners Insurance Markets Alabama’s Home Insurance Market is Highly Volatile

42. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 42 *Latest available as of December 11, 2011. Source: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute. RNW All Lines: AL vs. U.S., 1990-2009* Average 1990-2009 US: 8.0% AL: 4.9% 2004/05 hurricane seasons

43. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 43 RNW Homeowners: AL vs. U.S., 1990-2009* Average 1990-2009 US: 0.4% AL: -5.6% Return on Net Worth fluctuates wildly in AL’s home insurance market *Latest available as of December 11, 2011. Source: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute.

44. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 44 Losses Incurred as a Percent of Premiums HO: AL vs. U.S., 1990-2009* Average 1990-2009 US: 68.9% AL: 76.3% 2004/05 hurricane seasons *Latest available as of December 11, 2011. Source: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute.

45. All Lines: 10-Year Average RNW AL & Nearby States Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute 2000-2009 Alabama All Lines profitability is below the US and above the regional average

46. Homeowners: 10-Year Average RNW AL & Nearby States Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute 2000-2009 Alabama Homeowners profitability is below the US and above the regional average

47. 47 *Latest available. Sources: NAIC. Return on Net Worth: Homeowners Insurance, 10-Year Average (2000-2009*) Hawaii was the most profitable state for home insurers from 2000-2009 due to the total absence of hurricanes during this period (Percent) Top 25 States

48. 48 *Latest available. Sources: NAIC Hurricane Katrina and other storms made Alabama among the least profitable states for home insurers from 2000-2009, ranking 43 rd out of the 50 state. 2011 catastrophe losses will likely push the state to 48 th position. Bottom 25 States (Percent) Return on Net Worth: Homeowners Insurance, 10-Year Average (2000-2009*)

49. 49 Sources: SNL Financial LC.; Insurance Information Institute. While premium growth in the Alabama homeowners line has been above average, it hasn’t kept pace with losses, especially after considering record 2011 losses. Percent Change in DPW: Homeowners, by State, 2005-2010 Top 25 States

50. 50 Sources: SNL Financial LC.; Insurance Information Institute. Michigan was the slowest growing state between 2005 and 2010 Percent Change in DPW: Homeowners, by State, 2005-2010 Bottom 25 States

51. Global Catastrophe Loss Developments and Trends 51 2011 Will Rewrite Global Catastrophe Loss and Insurance History

52. 52 Source: MR NatCatSERVICE Natural Loss Events, January – September 2011 World Map

53. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 53 Top 16 Most Costly World Insurance Losses, 1970-2011* (Insured Losses, 2010 Dollars, $ Billions) *Through June 20, 2011. 2011 disaster figures are estimates; Figures include federally insured flood losses, where applicable. Sources: Swiss Re sigma 1/2011; AIR Worldwide, RMS, Eqecat; Insurance Information Institute. Taken as a single event, the Spring 2011 tornado and thunderstorm season would likely become the 7 th costliest event in global insurance history 3 of the top 15 most expensive catastrophes in world history have occurred in the past 18 months

54. Worldwide Natural Disasters, 1980 – 2011* Number of Events *2011 figure is through June 30. Source: MR NatCatSERVICE 54 Meteorological events (Storm) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire) Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption) There were 355 events through the first 6 months of 2011

55. 55 U.S. Insured Catastrophe Loss Update 2011 CAT Losses Already Greatly Exceed All of 2010 and Will Become One of the Most Expensive Years on Record

56. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 56 US Insured Catastrophe Losses *Estimate through Nov. 30, 2011. Note: 2001 figure includes $20.3B for 9/11 losses reported through 12/31/01. Includes only business and personal property claims, business interruption and auto claims. Non-prop/BI losses = $12.2B. Sources: Property Claims Service/ISO; Insurance Information Institute. 2011 Will Become the 5 th or 6 th Most Expensive Year in History for Insured Catastrophe Losses in the US $100 Billion CAT Year is Coming Eventually Record Tornado Losses Caused 2011 CAT Losses to Surge ($ Billions) 2000s: A Decade of Disaster 2000s: $193B (up 117%) 1990s: $89B

57. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 57 Top 13 (14?) Most Costly Disasters in U.S. History (Insured Losses, 2010 Dollars, $ Billions)** *Losses will actually be broken down into several “events” as determined by PCS. **Hurricane Irene losses stated in 2011 dollars. Sources: PCS; Insurance Information Institute inflation adjustments. Taken as a single event, the Spring 2011 tornado season would likely become 5 th costliest event in US insurance history

58. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 58 Combined Ratio Points Associated with Catastrophe Losses: 1960 – 2011:H1* *Insurance Information Institute estimates for 2010 and 2011:H1 Notes: Private carrier losses only. Excludes loss adjustment expenses and reinsurance reinstatement premiums. Figures are adjusted for losses ultimately paid by foreign insurers and reinsurers. Source: ISO; Insurance Information Institute. The Catastrophe Loss Component of Private Insurer Losses Has Increased Sharply in Recent Decades Avg. CAT Loss Component of the Combined Ratio by Decade 1960s: 1.04 1970s: 0.85 1980s: 1.31 1990s: 3.39 2000s: 3.52 2010s: 4.15* Combined Ratio Points

59. Number Geophysical (earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity) Climatological (temperature extremes, drought, wildfire) Meteorological (storm) Hydrological (flood, mass movement) Natural Disasters in the United States, 1980 – 2011* Number of Events (Annual Totals 1980 – 2010 and First Half 2011) *Through June 30. Source: MR NatCatSERVICE 59 There were 98 natural disaster events in the first half of 2011 37 8 51 2

60. U.S. Thunderstorm Loss Trends, 1980 – 2011* 60 Average thunderstorm losses are up more than 8 fold since the early 1980s Hurricanes get all the headlines, but thunderstorms are consistent producers of large scale loss. 2008-2011 are the most expensive years on record. Thunderstorm losses in the first half of 2011 totaled $16.4 billion, a new annual record through just 6 months *Through June 30, 2011. Source: Property Claims Service, MR NatCatSERVICE

61. U.S. Winter Storm Loss Trends, 1980 – 2010 (Annual Totals ) vs. First Half 2011 61 Insured winter storm losses in 2011 totaled $1.4 billion and are up 50% since 1980.

62. 62 REINSURANCE MARKET CONDITIONS Record Global Catastrophes Activity is Pressuring Pricing, But Capacity is Adequate

63. Global Reinsurance Capital, 2007-2011:H1 Reinsurer Capital% Change Source: Aon Reinsurance Market Outlook, September 2011 from Individual Company and AonBenfield Analytics; Insurance Information Institute. High Global Catastrophe Losses Have Had a Modest Adverse Impact on Global Reinsurance Market Capacity Global reinsurance market capacity is down in mid-2011 due to large catastrophe losses

64. Source: Guy Carpenter, GC Capital Ideas.com, November 23, 2011. Historical Capital Levels of Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, 1998—2Q11 Most excess reinsurance capacity was removed from the market in 2011, leaving uncertainty as to the direction of 2012 reinsurance renewals

65. Source: Guy Carpenter, GC Capital Ideas.com, September 26, 2011. Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line Index, 1990-2011 YTD (6/1/11) A modest increase in global property catastrophe reinsurance pricing was evident in June 1 renewals in the wake of record global catastrophe losses. Larger increase could occur for the Jan.1, 2012 renewals

66. 66 Underwriting Trends: Cycle, Catastrophes Are Among 2011 and 2012 Drivers

67. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 67 P/C Insurance Industry Combined Ratio, 2001–2011:H1* * Excludes Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers 2008--2011. Including M&FG, 2008=105.1, 2009=100.7, 2010=102.4, 2011=110.5 Sources: A.M. Best, ISO.; III Estimated for 2011:H1 (Q1 actual ex-M&FG was 102.2). Best Combined Ratio Since 1949 (87.6) As Recently as 2001, Insurers Paid Out Nearly $1.16 for Every $1 in Earned Premiums Relatively Low CAT Losses, Reserve Releases Cyclical Deterioration Heavy Use of Reinsurance Lowered Net Losses Relatively Low CAT Losses, Reserve Releases Avg. CAT Losses, More Reserve Releases Higher CAT Losses,

68. Underwriting Gain (Loss) 1975–2011* * Includes mortgage and financial guaranty insurers in all years. 2011 figure is III estimate based on actual H1 underwriting losses of $24.098 billion. Sources: A.M. Best, ISO; Insurance Information Institute. Large Underwriting Losses Are NOT Sustainable in Current Investment Environment ($ Billions) Underwriting losses in 2011 will be much larger: ~$40B due to big CATs

69. Homeowners Insurance Combined Ratio: 1990–2011P Homeowners Line Will Deteriorate in 2011 Due to Large Cat Losses. Extreme Regional Variation Can Be Expected Due to Local Catastrophe Loss Activity Sources: A.M. Best (1990-2010); Insurance Information Institute (2011P).

70. 70 P/C Insurance Industry Financial Overview Profit Recovery Will Be Set Back by High CATs, Low Interest Rates, Diminishing Reserve Releases

71. P/C Net Income After Taxes 1991–2011:H1 ($ Millions) 2005 ROE*= 9.6% 2006 ROE = 12.7% 2007 ROE = 10.9% 2008 ROE = 0.3% 2009 ROAS 1 = 5.9% 2010 ROAS = 6.5% 2011:H1 ROAS = 1.7% P-C Industry 2011:H1 profits were down 71.6% to $4.8B vs. 2010:H1, due to high catastrophe losses and as non-cat underwriting results deteriorated * ROE figures are GAAP; 1 Return on avg. surplus. Excluding Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers yields a 2.3% ROAS for 2011:H1, 7.5% for 2010 and 7.4% for 2009. Sources: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute

72. Capital/Policyholder Surplus (US) 72 Have Large Global Losses Reduced Capacity in the Industry, Setting the Stage for a Market Turn?

73. US Policyholder Surplus: 1975–2011* * As of 6/30/11. Source: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute. “Surplus” is a measure of underwriting capacity. It is analogous to “Owners Equity” or “Net Worth” in non-insurance organizations ($ Billions) The Premium-to-Surplus Ratio Stood at $0.78:$1 as of 6/30/11, A Near Record Low (at Least in Recent History)** Surplus as of 6/30/11 was a near-record $559.1 down 1% from the record $564.7B as of 3/31/11, but up 27.9% ($122B) from the crisis trough of $437.1B at 3/31/09. Prior peak was $521.8 as of 9/30/07. Surplus as of 6/30/11 was 7.1% above 2007 peak.

74. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 74 Policyholder Surplus, 2006:Q4–2011:Q2 Sources: ISO, A.M.Best. ($ Billions) 2007:Q3 Previous Surplus Peak Quarterly Surplus Changes Since 2007:Q3 Peak 09:Q1: -$84.7B (-16.2%) 09:Q2: -$58.8B (-11.2%) 09:Q3: -$31.0B (-5.9%) 09:Q4: -$10.3B (-2.0%) 10:Q1: +$18.9B (+3.6%) 10:Q2: +$8.7B (+1.7%) 10:Q3: +$23.0B (+4.4%) 10:Q4: +$35.1B (+6.7%) 11:Q1: +$42.9B (+8.2%) 11:Q2: +37.3B (+7.1%) Surplus as of 6/30/11 fell by 1% below its all time record high of $564.7B set as of 3/31/11. *Includes $22.5B of paid-in capital from a holding company parent for one insurer’s investment in a non-insurance business in early 2010. The Industry now has $1 of surplus for every $0.78 of NPW—the strongest claims- paying status in its history.

75. Financial Strength & Underwriting 75 P-C Impairments Remain Low Despite High Catastrophe Losses and Poor Economic Environment

76. P/C Insurer Impairments, 1969–2010 Source: A.M. Best Special Report “1969-2010 Impairment Review,” June 21, 2010; Insurance Information Institute. The Number of Impairments Varies Significantly Over the P/C Insurance Cycle, With Peaks Occurring Well into Hard Markets 8 of the 18 in 2009 were small Florida carriers. Total also includes a few title insurers.

77. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 77 P/C Insurer Impairment Frequency vs. Combined Ratio, 1969-2010 Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute 2010 impairment rate was 0.35%, down from 0.65% in 2009 and near the record low of 0.17% in 2007; Rate is still less than one-half the 0.81% average since 1969 Impairment Rates Are Highly Correlated With Underwriting Performance and Reached Record Lows in 2007

78. www.iii.org Thank you for your time and your attention! Twitter: twitter.com/bob_hartwig Download at www.iii.org/presentations Insurance Information Institute Online: