1. © NERC All rights reserved BUILDING ON GEOLOGICAL MODELS – THE VISION OF AN ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING PLATFORM Holger Kessler, Diarmad Campbell, Jon Ford, Jeremy Giles, Andrew Hughes, Ian Jackson, Denis Peach, Simon Price, Hans-Georg Sobisch, Ricky Terrington, Ben Wood 3D Geological Modelling Workshop Portland 17 th October 2009

2. © NERC All rights reserved Geological Model Data and Information Base Quantitative Conceptual Model Process Model ? Quantitative Understanding Predictions Forecasts Scenario Planning … to produce geoscientifically based “what if scenarios” and putting these into context in a subsurface information system The vision is to develop the Environmental Modelling Platform which links data, knowledge and concepts seamlessly to numerical process models…. Uncertainty Refinement

3. © NERC All rights reserved From maps… …to forecasts …to models…

4. © NERC All rights reserved We need to think outside our own comfort zone BGS NERC “where it matters”

5. © NERC All rights reserved The environmental challenges ahead The ability of to provide clean and affordable drinking water and water for industrial use from ground or surface water Managing the risks of flooding from the sea, rivers, rainfall run-off and groundwater The safe disposal, containment and potential re-use of anthropogenic waste products Prediction of ground conditions for major infrastructure projects (transport, housing, utilities) The mitigation of physical hazard such as landslides, subsidence, earthquakes and tsunamis The conservation of land to maintain food production as well as protecting biodiversity The sustainable management of ground sourced heating and cooling in a changing environment

6. © NERC All rights reserved The emerging tasks Data supply and interoperability Process models and their linkage Communication of model results to scientific peers and a non-technical audience Computational infrastructure Continue to build and engage the community: BGS (test beds and other projects) UK collaborations International collaborations

7. © NERC All rights reserved Coupled Geological and Groundwater models

8. © NERC All rights reserved Communicating the model results

9. © NERC All rights reserved

13. Solving the IT is not the hard bit! IT issues Science issues Cultural issues