1. Application of Seasonal Forecasts (ERFS) for Crop Planning and Livestock Management in Arid Rajasthan- A case study for Jodhpur district (DoAC funded project) Location of ERFS : Div. of Natural Resources & Environment Field Unit Central Arid Zone Research Institute Jodhpur, Rajasthan Principal Investigator : Dr. A.S. Rao Principal Scientist (Agril. Meteorology) Co-Investigators : Dr. T.K. Bhati Principal Scientist (Agronomy) Dr. S.K. Lodha Principal Scientist (Plant Pathology) Dr. B.K. Mathur Principal Scientist (Animal nutrition)

2. Origin of the project The Dept. of Agriculture & Cooperation, Ministry of Agriculture has sponsored an ambitious project "Extended Range Forecast System (ERFS) for Climate Risk Management in Agriculture". The project is primarily coordinated by Prof UC Mohanty,CAS, IIT Delhi in which a number of Indian organizations viz. IMD, NCMRWF, SAC, IITM, ICAR, etc and International organizations such as IRI, USA; ECMRWF, UK, etc are partners. In this context, Scientific & Technical Committee (STC) of the project held at IITD on December 19, 2007 finalized the selection of 8 districts where Agromet service of ERFS is operational. These districts are Palampur (HP), Pantnagar (Uttarakhand), Anand (Gujarat), Jodhpur (Rajasthan), Bhubneshwar (Orissa), Raipur (Chattishgad), Coimbatore (Tamil Nadu) and Hyderabad (AP). Therefore, the present project is proposed on applications of ERFS for minimizing Climatic Risk in arid Jodhpur district.

3. Definition of the problem CAZRI has been giving Agro-advisories to farmers of Jodhpur region based on medium range weather forecasts since 1998. However, these advisories concern the next 3-4 day period which may not be sufficient for advance planning. Current bi-weekly advisories focus on short term response to pests and diseases/irrigation rather than issues such as crop choice. Such decisions require extended range forecast for agricultural production practices and this capability is not currently available at a district level. The issues arising are (1) the skill of new extended range forecast need to be assessed at district level (2) climate predictions need to be made relevant to on-farm management decisions at the district level and (3) communication of climate information to deliver to villages.

4. Arid 50.94 m ha Semi-arid 122.52 m ha Dry sub-humid 75.42 m ha Total Dryland 248.88 m ha INDIA 328.76 m ha 2.5 y 3.0 y 4.0 y 5.0 y 15.0 y …y DROUGHT FREQUENCY (Years)

5. Rainfall distribution at Jodhpur under different monsoon situations

11. Long-term trend in climate of Jodhpur 1971-19901991-20061971-2006 Rainfall (mm/year) -5.777-10.812-3.486 Rainy days (Days/year) -0.333-0.385-0.124 Max. air temp. (Deg C/ year) 0.0340.0520.036 Min. air temp. (Deg C/ year) 0.0550.0670.021

12. Experience from CAZRI’s Weather-based Agro-advisory Service to Farmers

14. Immediate Objectives 1.Detailed assessment of climate risk faced by farmers and policy makers through compilation of climate calendar for crop and livestock management 2.Preparation of agro-advisories based on ERFS system. 3.Qualitative and quantitative assessment of extended range forecast for Jodhpur district. Long-term Objectives 1.Use of Decision Support System for early warning of ERFS and ARM system. 2.To evaluate impact of seasonal weather change on arid crops and various diseases of crops/livestock production system.

15. Organization of work elements The ERFS Field Unit at CAZRI, Jodhpur will be coordinated by a group of scientists consisting of agrometeorologist, agronomist, plant pathologist and veterinary persons. The scientific group periodically meet for issuing agro-advisories for crops/livestock management based on seasonal forecasts of ERFS and bulletins will be communicated to farmers of the Jodhpur district through media and personal contacts in the selected villages. 1. Dr.A.S. Rao 40% Planning, coordination of the Field Unit of ERFS in ARM for application of extended range forecasts for Jodhpur district, farmers interactions in different tehsils, testing of cro- weather models 2. Dr.T.K. Bhati 20% Preparation of weather based farming/cropping systems advisories 3. Dr.S.K. Lodha 20% Fore-warning of pests/diseases and plant protection measures 4. Dr.B.K. Mathur 20% Livestock management under different weather situations

16. Fcst table WORK PLAN AND METHODOLOGY The ERFS Field Unit at CAZRI will Establish village link with farmers to provide end-to-end climate information generated with a lead time of fortnight to one month for providing critical agricultural input support services to farmers 1.Undertake information products with the feedback mechanism for agriculture risk management. 2.Assess the major past climate anomalies pattern and their impacts on agriculture The following villages are selected for periodic assessment of crop and livestock conditions; Manai village in Jodhpur tehsil Borunda village in Bilara tehsil Phalodi village in Phalodi tehsil Dhundaria village in Osian tesil

17. Fcst Prod Kharif season: Crops: Pearl millet, clusterbean Diseases: Downy mildew (pearl millet), bacterial blight (clusterbean) Climatic factors: Rainfall, atmospheric humidity, temperatures, sunshine Observations: Disease incidence, crop losses Winter season: Crops: Cumin, isabgol, mustard Diseases: Blight (cumin), downy mildew (mustard and isabgol) Climatic factors: Rainfall, atmospheric humidity, temperatures, sunshine, cloudy weather Observations: Disease incidence, crop losses

18. TIME SCHEDULE OF ACTIVITIES

19. BUDGET ESTIMATES Item(in Rs. Lakhs) 230.Recurring 1st Year 2009-10 2 nd Year 2010-11 3 rd Year 2011-12 Total 23011.Salaries of SRF (M.Sc in Agrometeorology/ Meteorology/Agriculture) 1.728 1.728 1.728 5.184 23022. Contingencies0.40 1.20 23033. Travel0.20 0.60 4. Other costs (a ) Publication (b)Institutional overheads 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.25 0.60 0.25 0.60 0.75 231Equipment (a) Computer (b) GIS Software 0.75 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.75 1.00 Grand total (A+B)3.3283.5783.17810.084