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Think of the North Atlantic country Iceland with FDI in recent years resembling the pattern before the economic crash, so the dataset pre-crash can be.

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Presentation on theme: "Think of the North Atlantic country Iceland with FDI in recent years resembling the pattern before the economic crash, so the dataset pre-crash can be."— Presentation transcript:

1 Think of the North Atlantic country Iceland with FDI in recent years resembling the pattern before the economic crash, so the dataset pre-crash can be used to explore potential long-term trends. Investment is explained by geographic location and country size, using a gravity model to account for the country‘s exceptional remoteness and sparseness. A unique extension of the gravity model implies usage of the hyperbolic sine function together with simultaneous estimation of investment sector and trade bloc effects. A significant fixed difference is found in the amount of FDI made by individual countries. Findings indicate that EU member countries have more incentives for making investment than countries with no trade-bloc membership. Moreover, when compared to member countries of the EU trade bloc, EFTA and NAFTA member countries are estimated to have more incentive for undertaking foreign direct investment. Foreign direct investment is found to be negatively affected by distance, and in most cases to be negatively affected by population of the host and source country, however positively affected by their gross domestic products. Such opposite signs estimates for gross domestic products and population indicate foreign direct investment to be affected by distance and wealth, rather than market size. In other words, geographical location and income per capita welth of nations appear to be more important in this situation than size of nations. The fact that the end result of this gravity model analysis indicates that foreign direct investment tends to be driven by wealth rather than market size effects, may have some implications for other relatively small economies wanting to receive FDI from larger ones, as well as for the larger countries considering their FDI options. Table 1. Fixed Sector and Trade Bloc Effects RegressorsIHS Robust Host Country GDP 2.189** (2.44) Source Country GDP 1.053*** (5.54) Host Country Population -2.127 (-0.84) Source Country Population -0.892 (-5.13) Distance -0.068 (-0.24) Power Intensive Ind. 0.575*** (5.29) Comm. and Fin. Ind. 0.649*** (6.58) Other Industries 0.435*** (5.32) EFTA 0.484*** (3.57) NAFTA 0.357** (1.99) NON Bloc Members -0.236 (-0.45) Constant 10.949*** (3.34) Observations740 Log-Likelihood-1091.20 Degrees of Freedom11 R-Squared0.1814 Note: Robust t-statistics are in parentheses below the coefficients. ***, ** and * denote significance levels of 1%, 5% and 10%, respectively. The data dimensions allow for model enlargements, to account for difference between investment sector and investment blocs simultaneously, an analysis that is rarely possible. This last procedure involves application of the inverse hyperbolic sine function, and I am able to control for both fixed sector and bloc effects at the same time, which is truly unique for this model type. The question to answer in this paper, is how the model works when the size difference between the source and the recipient country of investment is particularly substantial. Previous research on FDI is extensive but has not covered this situation. Furthermore, when it comes to FDI in Iceland, current circumstances are similar to those before the economic boom and crash. Pre-crash, the bulk of FDI was related to the power intensive sector, a trend that is repeating itself today. The historical data can therefore potentially help to explain current economic forces and predict the future trends as the power intensive sector continues to be of great importance in the modern international economy. This case country is even more interesting in today‘s market because it has an abundance of energy that can‘t be exported directly, and it is of the most valuable type, renewable and completely environmentally friendly. The research can potentially be meaningful for source countries looking for investment opportunities in the North Atlantic or in relatively small economies in general. Investment in a Small Remote Economy Helga Kristjánsdóttir


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