1. Rapidly Updating Analysis (The RUA White Paper) Stephen Lord – NWS Affiliate Acknowledgements: Brad Colman NWS SSD Chiefs Stan Benjamin Geoff DiMego Ken Howard 1

2. Outline December 2010 SSD Chiefs’ documents Weather-Ready Nation Roadmap “White paper” Preliminary work Summary 2

3. December 2010 SJL detailed to NWS HQ (OST) NWS S&T Roadmap under construction – Brad Colman lead author – Major opportunity to integrate modeling and NWS field operations – Was it just another exercise (in bureaucratic futility??) 3

4. December 2010 SJL detailed to NWS HQ (OST) NWS S&T Roadmap under construction – Brad Colman lead author – Major opportunity to integrate modeling and NWS field operations – Was it just another exercise (in bureaucratic futility??) 4

5. SSD Chiefs’ documents “S & T Roadmap Capstone” document(s) (draft March 2009) – The National Weather Service will enhance its decision support services by developing a robust next generation “Integrated Observing and Analysis System” to produce the best “state of the environment” and serve as the basis for future forecast systems such as “Warn on Forecast” and the “Next Generation 4-D Forecast System”. – The Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) and Analysis of Record (AOR) project provides the foundation for intelligently combining observations from a variety of platforms using a data assimilation system that is tuned to produce the best estimate of the current state of the environment. The effort has uncovered many challenges in areas ranging from dealing with data sparse regions, uncertainty associated with observing systems, uncertainty associated with the analysis, and radius of influence of observations (especially in complex terrain). SSD Chiefs Science Vision (draft January 2011?) – The shift from a 2 dimensional, updated a few times a day gridded database to a 3 dimensional, updated hourly with many more forecast fields is a basic science challenge for the NWS. – “Warn on Forecast” Beyond GFE/NDFD 5

6. Weather-Ready Nation Roadmap Priorities for S&T Development – Comprehensive Situational Knowledge, Earth System Predictive Guidance and Forecast Confidence Techniques for generating high-resolution, fused data analyses to support a rapidly updating, three-dimensional product stream for forecaster situational awareness. The rapid updating must generate (with greater accuracy, frequency and use of available and new observations) real-time analyses of precipitation, radar reflectivity, clouds, temperature, wind, convective potential, hazardous chemicals and other fields required by forecasters to generate warnings and forecasts with greater lead time and accuracy than today. Application of high-resolution data assimilation for ~1–3 km model initialization to provide continuity of 1-6 hour model forecasts with the rapidly updating fields, especially for convectively forced events. This is a major challenge due to the scientific difficulties of representing evolution of extreme and rapidly evolving mesoscale weather patterns at high resolution with input from scattered and often unrepresentative observations. Continued exploitation of a suite of multi-scale forecast models that can represent high-impact weather events and their environment on continental, regional, and local scales. Critical development for severe weather involves forecasting the complete hydrological cycle from surface fluxes to cloud generation and growth (often in complex terrain), which requires coupling with land surface and hydrological models. Longer-term forecasts (to predict the environment spawning high-impact events) derive increased accuracy from coupling with the ocean (particularly in coastal areas) and cryosphere (for the Arctic). 6

7. White Paper - 1 Real-time situational awareness – Guides warnings & short-term forecasts for Public safety – Emergency managers – Public Weather-sensitive commerce – Aviation – Energy – Atmosphere – 7

8. White Paper - 2 Real-time situational awareness – Guides warnings & short-term forecasts for Public safety – Emergency managers – Public Weather-sensitive commerce – Aviation – Energy – Atmosphere + Land & hydrological cycle Snow & ice Ocean & coastal areas Hazardous spills 8

9. White Paper - 3 Consistency – Spatial - across NWS service boundaries – Temporal - analysis  1-6 h fcst + longer – Physical - hydrological cycle – Unrealizable unless Coupled model system on national to local scales Coupled data assimilation across all domains Balanced and unbiased analyses at resolution supporting WOF Nirvana So, an incremental approach and multiple partners required 9

10. White Paper - 4 Consistency – Spatial - across NWS service boundaries – Temporal - analysis  1-6 h fcst + longer – Physical - hydrological cycle – Unrealizable unless Coupled model system on national to local scales Coupled data assimilation across all domains Balanced and unbiased analyses at resolution supporting WOF Nirvana So, an incremental approach and multiple partners required 10

11. White Paper - 5 Consistency – Spatial - across NWS service boundaries – Temporal - analysis  1-6 h fcst + longer – Physical - hydrological cycle – Unrealizable unless Coupled model system on national to local scales Coupled data assimilation across all domains Balanced and unbiased analyses at resolution supporting WOF Nirvana So, a requirements analysis, multiple partners, and an incremental approach are necessary 11

12. White Paper - 6 Requirements analysis – This meeting Multiple partners (are at this meeting) – OAR Labs – NWS (EMC & OHD) operations – NESDIS/JCSDA (?) – Non-NOAA An incremental approach is under way, but much more effort is needed – Founded on community-based software – Need to integrate all types of observations In situ Radar Satellite 12

13. Preliminary Work - 1 Putting machinery in place – Observations development Aircraft Lightning – GSI  RTMA  URMA  3-D extension – MRMS – Cloud analysis – HRRR & NAMRR – Unbiased precipitation estimate – Hydrological cycle – Cryosphere – Coastal extension (waves, ice edge) – Hazards (spills data and more) – Regional to global coverage – WOF Lessons learned from LAPS will be valuable 13

14. Preliminary Work - 2 Putting machinery in place – Observations development Aircraft ($$) Lightning ($$) – GSI  RTMA  URMA  3-D extension (DiMego & associates, $$) – MRMS (Ken Howard & associates, $$) – HRRR & NAMRR (Benjamin, DiMego & associates) – Cloud analysis – skycover product (Gerth, $$) – Unbiased precipitation estimate (Kitzmiller - OHD) – Hydrological cycle – Cryosphere – Coastal extension (waves, ice edge) – Hazards (spills data and more) – Regional to global coverage – WOF (NSSL) 14 Sandy Supplement (SS) $$

15. Summary RUA has evolved from concept to preliminary development Important to ensure project meets reasonable requirements and evolves in the best possible direction Welcome to everyone! 15 Questions?